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Fantasy Fastlane: Ford looks to continue dominant streak in manufacturers’ backyard
By Dustin Albino for NASCAR.com | Published: August 5, 2022 12
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM (as of Thursday).
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
MUST START:
Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-1
Michigan holds a soft spot in Larson’s heart, as the site of his first Cup victory in 2016. That began a streak of three straight wins at the venue and four consecutive at 2-mile layouts, winning at Fontana in 2017. Larson won in Southern California earlier this year, so maybe this is the start of a new streak.
Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-1
Michigan holds a soft spot in Larson’s heart, as the site of his first Cup victory in 2016. That began a streak of three straight wins at the venue and four consecutive at 2-mile layouts, winning at Fontana in 2017. Larson won in Southern California earlier this year, so maybe this is the start of a new streak.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
MUST START:
Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Because of its layout, many people within the industry believe Michigan will race similarly to Auto Club Speedway in February. If that’s the case, Reddick dominated the race, leading 90 of 200 laps before slowing with a flat tire. The No. 8 team is coming off its second win of the season and has put consecutive top-two finishes together, despite Reddick's impending departure from RCR.
Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Because of its layout, many people within the industry believe Michigan will race similarly to Auto Club Speedway in February. If that’s the case, Reddick dominated the race, leading 90 of 200 laps before slowing with a flat tire. The No. 8 team is coming off its second win of the season and has put consecutive top-two finishes together, despite Reddick's impending departure from RCR.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
MUST START:
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Last weekend at Indianapolis, Blaney was in prime position to earn valuable points until an overtime spin dropped him to 26th in the finishing order. Good thing is that the No. 12 car is typically sporty at Michigan, winning this race last season. In his last seven starts at the track, Blaney has five top-10 finishes.
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Last weekend at Indianapolis, Blaney was in prime position to earn valuable points until an overtime spin dropped him to 26th in the finishing order. Good thing is that the No. 12 car is typically sporty at Michigan, winning this race last season. In his last seven starts at the track, Blaney has five top-10 finishes.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
MUST START:
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 18-1
Michigan is the peanut butter to Harvick’s jelly. In 15 races at MIS since Harvick joined Stewart-Haas Racing, the No. 4 car has a quartet of victories (all coming in the last six races) with four additional runner-up finishes. While he hasn’t had that raw speed this year, he’s in a must-win scenario to make the playoffs. It’s hard to bet against the 2014 champion.
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 18-1
Michigan is the peanut butter to Harvick’s jelly. In 15 races at MIS since Harvick joined Stewart-Haas Racing, the No. 4 car has a quartet of victories (all coming in the last six races) with four additional runner-up finishes. While he hasn’t had that raw speed this year, he’s in a must-win scenario to make the playoffs. It’s hard to bet against the 2014 champion.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK:
Bubba Wallace | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
For the first time in Wallace’s career, he has three straight top-10 finishes, with two of those being top-five efforts. When asked about previewing Michigan at Pocono, Wallace said very few words, believing the team will be incredibly strong after a Goodyear tire test in late May. Based on his Pocono speed, Wallace could be one to watch this weekend and has won at the venue in the past in the Truck Series.
Bubba Wallace | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
For the first time in Wallace’s career, he has three straight top-10 finishes, with two of those being top-five efforts. When asked about previewing Michigan at Pocono, Wallace said very few words, believing the team will be incredibly strong after a Goodyear tire test in late May. Based on his Pocono speed, Wallace could be one to watch this weekend and has won at the venue in the past in the Truck Series.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK:
Erik Jones | View stats
Petty GMS Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 28-1
Should Michigan indeed race like Fontana, we might see a surprise winner and hometown celebration for Jones come the checkered flag. At Auto Club, the No. 43 car was among the top five for much of the race, finishing a season-best third. And if Jones did find Victory Lane, my, how it would shake up the playoff picture.
Erik Jones | View stats
Petty GMS Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 28-1
Should Michigan indeed race like Fontana, we might see a surprise winner and hometown celebration for Jones come the checkered flag. At Auto Club, the No. 43 car was among the top five for much of the race, finishing a season-best third. And if Jones did find Victory Lane, my, how it would shake up the playoff picture.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK:
Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
While all the glitz and glamor at RCR have been on Reddick this year, Michigan is among the best tracks on the circuit for Dillon. MIS is one of just two intermediate tracks on the Cup schedule – Las Vegas being the other – where Dillon has multiple top fives. He was on pace to earn a third last year before getting hooked by Brad Keselowski. The No. 3 car also finished runner-up at Fontana this year.
Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
While all the glitz and glamor at RCR have been on Reddick this year, Michigan is among the best tracks on the circuit for Dillon. MIS is one of just two intermediate tracks on the Cup schedule – Las Vegas being the other – where Dillon has multiple top fives. He was on pace to earn a third last year before getting hooked by Brad Keselowski. The No. 3 car also finished runner-up at Fontana this year.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM:
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
It doesn’t seem like it was that long ago that Byron was being considered as a championship favorite. The team still has the speed for a deep playoff run, should it regain consistency, but with just one top-10 result since winning at Martinsville in early April, it’s hard to put the No. 24 car in your fantasy lineup. Byron will likely be a popular choice this weekend after finishing second at MIS last year.
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
It doesn’t seem like it was that long ago that Byron was being considered as a championship favorite. The team still has the speed for a deep playoff run, should it regain consistency, but with just one top-10 result since winning at Martinsville in early April, it’s hard to put the No. 24 car in your fantasy lineup. Byron will likely be a popular choice this weekend after finishing second at MIS last year.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM:
Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 22-1
It feels like a recurring theme writing about how to stay away from Bowman recently, but the No. 48 team can’t buy any luck. By wrecking out at the Indianapolis Road Course, Bowman doesn’t have a top 10 in the last eight races, with four DNFs. His numbers at Michigan aren’t much better, with a best finish of 10th (twice).
Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 22-1
It feels like a recurring theme writing about how to stay away from Bowman recently, but the No. 48 team can’t buy any luck. By wrecking out at the Indianapolis Road Course, Bowman doesn’t have a top 10 in the last eight races, with four DNFs. His numbers at Michigan aren’t much better, with a best finish of 10th (twice).
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Tim Nwachukwu | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM:
Brad Keselowski | View stats
RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Winning a race at Michigan would rank right up there with winning a Daytona 500 for Keselowski. But the Michigan native has struggled in his first year as a driver-owner, and it’s hard to see Michigan being an exception. The 2012 Cup champ does have 11 top-10 finishes in his last 15 starts, but has just three top 10s this year, with only one of those coming on a non-superspeedway or road course.
Brad Keselowski | View stats
RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Winning a race at Michigan would rank right up there with winning a Daytona 500 for Keselowski. But the Michigan native has struggled in his first year as a driver-owner, and it’s hard to see Michigan being an exception. The 2012 Cup champ does have 11 top-10 finishes in his last 15 starts, but has just three top 10s this year, with only one of those coming on a non-superspeedway or road course.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
MY LINEUP: Ryan Blaney, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, Kyle Busch
GARAGE: Bubba Wallace
GARAGE: Bubba Wallace