Fantasy Fastlane: Time to turn to Truex at Phoenix?

Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.


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Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 4-1

Fastlane forecast: With a win and a runner-up finish in his last two races, the reigning champ has tallied the most points through three races in Fantasy Live. Expect the big points days to continue at Phoenix, where he is the most recent winner – as it was the site of his 2021 title win – and has not finished outside the top seven in his last six starts there. I ended up not using him at Auto Club, so I am putting that banked use to play right here.

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 9-1

Fastlane forecast: Over the last four races at Phoenix, Logano has the most points – an average of 42 points – and the best average finish of 4.3 during that stretch. That span includes three top-three finishes and 328 laps led. If you have used Logano a lot to open the season, I get the desire to save the use, but we do have opportunities to save him later this spring (Darlington, Kansas, Dover) as well as next week at Atlanta.

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 7-1

Fastlane forecast: Truex was one of the best, if not THE best driver at Phoenix last year. He won the spring race and placed second in the title race while leading 136 of 624 laps there and scoring the second-most points in last year's events. This year, Truex has notched some solid points days already with two races totaling at least 34 points, and it's reasonable to expect him to do that at Phoenix, where he has six top-six finishes in his last nine starts.

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 8-1

Fastlane forecast: Elliott is one of four drivers to open the season with at least two top 10s in the first three races. That solid start should continue at Phoenix, where he has four straight top-seven finishes – including his 2020 title win. He also has the third-most points in that span, and that includes his appearances in two Championship 4s there, where he got zero stage points. His 10.8 average finish at this track is third-best among active drivers.

Kyle Busch | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota

Odds: 7-1

Fastlane forecast: Busch's overall body of work at Phoenix is quite good – three wins, a 10.8 average finish and a run of nine top fives in 10 races from 2015-20. The last three races there, though, have been pedestrian by the two-time champ’s standards with just one top 10 and the 10th-most points in that span. A strong showing at Las Vegas bodes well for Rowdy as he is one of four drivers to nab at least two top 10s to start the season.

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 10-1

Fastlane forecast: There's little doubt Blaney has been fast out of the gate, but he has also been snake-bit to start the year. The speed should show at Phoenix – a track that has been an improving one for Blaney with four top-six finishes and five top 10s in his last six races there. Last season, he had the most points in the two races held there as well. If you have used him a few times early, it's worth investigating other options, but don't discount using YRB again here.

Kevin Harvick | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 18-1

Fastlane forecast: The Cactus King has feasted at this track in his Cup career with nine wins, 18 top fives, 27 top 10s and an average finish of 8.8 – all best among Sunday’s field. While he hasn't won here since the spring of 2018, he is still delivering solid results and has the second-most points at the 1-mile track over the last four races. His start to 2022 has been more down than up, but he'll start the weekend in my lineup.

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 14-1

Fastlane forecast: Byron bagged a strong points day at Las Vegas after a less-than-ideal start to the season in his first two races. It’s reasonable to expect him to build on that result at Phoenix, where he has four top 10s including three such finishes in the last four races there. During that stretch, he has the 10th-most points at this track with no total less than 26 points. He has a lot of upside this weekend, and that makes him a strong consideration.


SLEEPER PICK: Aric Almirola | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: Almirola kept his top-10 run to open the season intact as he is the only driver with top 10s in all three races to begin 2022. Phoenix represents a good chance to keep that run going as he has six top 10s and only one finish worse than 13th in his last nine starts at the 1-mile track. In the last four races there, he has the ninth-most points – an average of 30.3.

SLEEPER PICK: Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: After two finishes that saw him total just four points to start the season, Bell scored his first top 10 of 2022 at Las Vegas as well as the Busch Light Pole Award last weekend. Phoenix could see him build off that as he registered top 10s in both races there in 2021 and has a solid history there dating back to his days in the Xfinity Series.

SLEEPER PICK: Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 40-1

Fastlane forecast: The Sunoco Rookie of the Year favorite has yet to make a Cup start at Phoenix, but this was the site of his 2020 Xfinity title win and his near-defense of that crown in 2021. He has another Xfinity win here, too. One thing to note is Cindric has found solid footing with the new knockout-style qualifying format with two starts inside the top four.

SLEEPER PICK: Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing Team, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 40-1

Fastlane forecast: Chastain's third-place run at Las Vegas saw him lead the most laps on the day and create some buzz that he may be the next driver to score his first Cup win. His Cup starts at Phoenix have not produced a finish better than 14th, but last weekend’s result has firmly put him on our radar as a play to watch in the desert.

WAIT AND SEE: Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 8-1

Fastlane forecast: Hamlin's 2022 season has gotten off to a rocky start with two finishes outside the top 30, including an early exit from Las Vegas where he looked like the car to beat. Perhaps his first 30-plus point day of the season will come at Phoenix, where he has two Cup wins in his career and five top-five finishes in his last six starts there. But for now, let's see how the team unloads and go from there.

WAIT AND SEE: Tyler Reddick | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: The breakout buzz for Reddick from the preseason has shown itself to be real. But it's time to be a little cautious heading into Phoenix as he has never finished better than 19th in his four Cup starts there. Let's see how the No. 8 camp unloads, but with road courses and intermediates right in his wheelhouse, I need to see a lot to pivot toward a use.

STAY AWAY FROM: Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 20-1

Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's winner at Las Vegas is sure to be a popular play after that victory, but the stats at Phoenix say to pump the brakes on that thought. He has just one top 10 in 13 starts in the desert, and his next-best finish there is 13th place -- achieved twice. His average finish of 23.8 for his career at this track is only a tick better at 18.7 with Hendrick.

STAY AWAY FROM: Austin Dillon | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet

Odds: 66-1

Fastlane forecast: In 16 starts at Phoenix, Dillon has just two top 10s and an average finish of 20.8. Among non-dirt or road courses on the circuit, that is his worst average finish at any track. His last top 10 at the 1-mile track came in the fall of 2018 – six races ago. There will be spots to use AD, but this is not one of them to count on.

My lineup heading into the weekend: Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick; Garage: Aric Almirola.



Just missed the cut: Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Kyle Busch, Austin Cindric, Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney.


Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece this weekend for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.