Fantasy Fastlane: Martin Truex Jr. destined for breakout 2022 run at Sonoma

Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM (as of Thursday).



MUST START: Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 9-1

With Sonoma electing to take out the carousel and bring back the chute, Truex has to be the favorite to win. The No. 19 team won the last race on the chute in 2018, leading 62 of 110 laps. Realistically, it doesn’t matter what configuration Sonoma has, because he has been fast, earning two wins and a third-place effort in the last three starts. Plus, he has championship-winning crew chief Cole Pearn back this week as an engineer.

MUST START: Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 9-1

Despite having just two wins in the wine country – one of those coming way back in 2008 – Busch has been sneaky good at Sonoma in recent memory. The Las Vegas native enters the weekend with six consecutive top-10 finishes at the road course, five of those placing inside of the top five.

MUST START: Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-2

Given there’s four road course races over the next 10 events on the schedule, use Elliott strategically. Sonoma is the road course he has struggled at the most since joining the Cup Series, but he is coming off a runner-up finish last year. Depending on how many starts you have left with the No. 9 team in the regular season, it might be better to save him. Totally up to you.

MUST START: AJ Allmendinger | View stats
Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-1

Over the years, Allmendinger has been so close to victory at Sonoma he could taste it. He has also had a ton of misfortune, with finishes of 35th or worse in four of his last five starts at the track, despite leading in all of those races. Last time the series ran a road course, the No. 16 car was in position to win until he was booted on the final lap. Odds are, he’ll be up front Sunday.

SLEEPER PICK: Austin Cindric | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 14-1

Not sure how much of a sleeper Cindric is, given he could likely win one of these upcoming road-course races, but he has never ran a NASCAR national touring race at Sonoma. His talent on road courses, however, is undeniable, so it shouldn’t shock anyone if the No. 2 team gets its first top 10 since COTA – oh, another road course – this weekend.

SLEEPER PICK: Chase Briscoe | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 14-1

Like Cindric, Briscoe has proven to be quite talented while turning left and right. All three of his top 10s in his rookie season came on road courses, despite finishing 17th at Sonoma in his lone start. Of late, the No. 14 team has shown a ton of speed and not the finishes to go with it, but that could change at Sonoma.

SLEEPER PICK: Erik Jones | View stats
Petty GMS Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1

Jones wouldn’t consider himself a road-course specialist by trade, but the Michigan native has performed fairly well at Sonoma in recent years. Last year, his first in the No. 43 car, he finished 11th. That followed consecutive top-10 efforts for Joe Gibbs Racing. Jones is one of the best surprises thus far in 2022, sitting not far outside of a playoff spot.

STAY AWAY FROM: Ross Chastain | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-1

Based on COTA, many would and should have Chastain on their fantasy team this weekend at Sonoma. However, a road-course race is a golden opportunity to return the favor to another driver, and last week at Gateway, the No. 1 car upset multiple competitors. For that reason alone, be cautious of putting Chastain in your lineup.

STAY AWAY FROM: Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 40-1

Recent stats at Sonoma would make it enticing to select Harvick for your team this weekend. In seven races at the track since joining SHR, he has five finishes of sixth or better, including a win in 2017 and finishing runner-up in 2018 with an epic pit-strategy game between Harvick and Truex. But Harvick has struggled to be a frequent frontrunner in the Next Gen car, and I don’t see that changing on a road course.

STAY AWAY FROM: Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 125-1

With a strong performance at Gateway, Almirola is back above the playoff cutline. Unfortunately for the No. 10 team, Sonoma is nothing like the flat, oval tracks the 38-year-old typically excels at. And despite Sonoma statistically being his best road course on the circuit with two top 10s in the last three races, he often struggles on such tracks.

MY LINEUP: Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, AJ Allmendinger, Kurt Busch
Garage: Austin Cindric