Fantasy Fastlane: Which team will find the Yellow Brick Road at Kansas?

FEATURED MATCHUP: Ryan Blaney vs. Joey Logano

Logano is a proven, three-time winner at the track, despite having mixed results in recent years. The No. 12 team, however, has been more inconsistent at the track, finishing 12th at Kansas in the spring. Though I’m not high on either team entering the weekend, the slight edge goes to the No. 22 team.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Kyle Larson vs. Chase Elliott

Both Hendrick Motorsports drivers had an eventful playoff opener, dropping them closer to the playoff cutline. Both have also won at Kansas in recent years, though Larson has done so in more commanding fashion. With the preferred groove running inches away from the wall, Larson should have the advantage.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Kyle Busch vs. Denny Hamlin

Like Pocono before the disqualification, this race could be a battle heads up between Busch and Hamlin. The No. 11 team has won two of the past six Kansas races, with 275 of his 349 total laps led coming at the track in that span. Lean Busch here, but it might be worth starting both in your lineup.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Erik Jones vs. Daniel Suárez

With what’s noted above, it’s pretty clear where I’m leaning entering the weekend. On paper, Jones is just better than Suárez at Kansas. Plus, the No. 43 team has a wave of momentum coming off its first win in over eight years.

MY LINEUP: Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., Tyler Reddick, William Byron

GARAGE: Chase Elliott

STAY AWAY FROM:
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Early on in Blaney’s Cup career, it looked as though Kansas was going to be a track in his wheelhouse for years to come. But for whatever reason, the No. 12 team has struggled at the track since 2019, earning five results of 20th or worse in the last seven races, with just a solo top 10 (fall, 2020). Save Blaney for later in the postseason.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Chase Briscoe | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Based on his Xfinity Series success at Kansas (two top-three finishes in four starts), one would think Briscoe would adapt to the track quickly in the Cup Series. Through three starts, that hasn’t been the case, earning a best finish of 19th. The No. 14 team needs to make an impact this weekend after a lousy opening race of the playoffs at Darlington. But the truth is, Briscoe hasn’t scored a top-10 finish since Memorial Day Weekend.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Daniel Suárez | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 33-1
Having to overcome an early penalty at Darlington for failing inspection three times, the No. 99 car showed a ton of speed and reached the top five. But a late pit-road penalty dropped Suárez to 18th, losing out on valuable points. His stats at Kansas aren’t great, with an average finish of 22.3 in 11 starts. He has just one top-10 finish – a seventh during his first start at the track.

SLEEPER PICK:
Bubba Wallace | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota
Odds: 18-1
Because Wallace is driving in the same car number that won the spring race at Kansas in commanding fashion, he might not be a sleeper this weekend. Wallace had a 10th-place finish himself, having to overcome pit road woes. Since then, Wallace has shown speed at most tracks. It won’t be surprising if he has a Michigan-esque run this weekend.

SLEEPER PICK:
Erik Jones | View stats
Petty GMS Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Well, this sleeper pick certainly worked last week for Darlington, so why not try again? While Jones’ stats at Kansas aren’t nearly as good as they were for Darlington, he does have five top-10 finishes in 12 starts. After having multiple standout runs this year, the No. 43 Petty GMS Motorsports team is now a proven winner.

SLEEPER PICK:
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
Earlier this year at Kansas, Byron was a "must start" at Kansas. But his eighth-place finish at Darlington last Sunday was his best finish since winning at Martinsville in early April, and that has slipped him down a peg. The No. 24 car was in control of the May race when it cut a tire, dropping Byron to 16th in the final rundown.

MUST START:
Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1
With his ability to run inches off the wall like no other, Reddick is a threat to win at Kansas. In May, he led 24 laps before having a rash of issues and finishing 30th, four laps down. This time around, that changes, and don’t be surprised if he’s battling for the win, just like last weekend at Darlington.

MUST START:
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 9-1
Truex had another maddening finish last week at Darlington. He appeared to be on his way to victory before losing the water pump belt on the No. 19 car. Good news is that he’s been among the best at Kansas in recent years, sweeping the races in 2017. In his last 11 starts there, he has 10 top 10s, with nine of those being seventh or better.

MUST START:
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 6-1
For the first 10 years that Busch visited Kansas, it was clearly his kryptonite. In his first 14 starts, he picked up just two top-10 finishes. His last 15 starts, however, have been a different case: two wins, 10 top-fives and 12 top-10 finishes. In the spring, the No. 18 car led 18 laps in a Toyota-dominated race and is coming off a race-high 155 laps led in the Southern 500.

MUST START:
Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-1
Kansas Speedway is the site of heartbreak for Larson in previous postseason appearances. But last year, it was the site of his fourth win in the playoffs. In three races at the 1.5-mile track since joining Hendrick, the reigning champion has led 291 of 801 laps (36.3%). It’s a safe bet that he will be up front on Sunday.