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Fantasy Fastlane: AAA 400 Drive for Autism
By | Published: May 9, 2016 15
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By: RJ Kraft
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the outlook for the top 10 drivers as well as two sleepers and two value plays based on NASCAR Fantasy Live prices. NASCAR.com fantasy expert RJ Kraft breaks down the drivers you want in your lineup and which drivers you want to avoid for this week.
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Martin Truex Jr.
Furniture Row Racing, No. 78 Toyota
Learn more about Truex
Fantasy Live price: $25.75
Fastlane forecast: Truex was a fantasy stud at Kansas last weekend and look for that to continue as the series moves to Dover. 'The Monster Mile' is practically a home track for the New Jersey native and it shows in his performance. He scored his first premier series win there and has five top-seven finishes in his last eight starts.
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Matt Kenseth
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Learn more about Kenseth
Fantasy Live price: $26.25
Fastlane forecast: Kenseth seemed to turn a corner at Kansas and that should continue at Dover. The 1-mile track has seen Kenseth score two wins there in his career, while posting seven top-seven finishes in his past 10 starts, as well. The 2003 champion is second only to Jimmie Johnson in average running position (8.66) and driver rating (107.7) at the track.
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Brad Keselowski
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Learn more about Keselowski
Fantasy Live price: $26.25
Fastlane forecast: When Keselowski is on at Dover, he is really on. He has a win and two runner-up finishes among his four top-five finishes. In his other eight starts there, his average finish is 18.8. There is a lot of risk-reward at work with the 2012 champion in your lineup for this event.
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Joey Logano
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Learn more about Logano
Fantasy Live price: $26.25
Fastlane forecast: Logano has only one lap led in 14 starts at Dover, but he does have eight straight top-11 finishes. If you're concerned about his slow start, know this: Nine of Logano's 12 wins at Penske have come in the second half of the year. He is a good option this weekend, but not as your top driver.
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Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Learn more about Earnhardt
Fantasy Live price: $26.50
Fastlane forecast: Dale Jr. has one win at Dover (in 2001) and his most recent pole came here (in 2013). In his last eight starts at 'The Monster Mile,' Earnhardt has a positive-place differential in seven of those. There are drivers with a better Dover histories who offer a little more for a similar price.
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Jimmie Johnson
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Learn more about Johnson
Fantasy Live price: $26.75
Fastlane forecast: Johnson has been a dominating force at Dover. His 10 wins and 2,999 laps led are the most among all drivers to compete at the track. The six-time champion also has the top driver rating (120.1) and average running position (7.71). Simply put, Johnson enters the weekend as the favorite.
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Carl Edwards
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Learn more about Edwards
Fantasy Live price: $27.50
Fastlane forecast: Edwards' 10.8 average finish at 'The Monster Mile' is third-best among active drivers. That said, he has struggled lately at the 1-mile track with just one top 10 in his last eight starts; compared to 11 top 10s in his first 15 starts there. You should have a JGR driver in your lineup, but others are better plays this week.
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Kurt Busch
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Chevrolet
Learn more about Kurt Busch
Fantasy Live price: $27.75
Fastlane forecast: Since winning at Dover in 2011, the 1-mile track hasn't been the friendliest of places for the 2004 champion. In his past eight starts at Dover, Busch has no top 10s and an average finish of 20.5. The veteran driver has been solid this season, but this feels like a week to look elsewhere.
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Kevin Harvick
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Chevrolet
Learn more about Harvick
Fantasy Live price: $27.75
Fastlane forecast: Harvick dominated the fall Chase race at Dover to score his first win at the track. In fact, in his four starts with SHR at 'The Monster Mile,' Harvick has led the most laps (693) -- nearly 400 more than the next driver (Johnson). As always, Harvick is a strong play this weekend.
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Kyle Busch
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Learn more about Kyle Busch
Fantasy Live price: $28.25
Fastlane forecast: A two-time winner at Dover, 'Rowdy' has been on a roll of late. In his last 12 starts at Dover, Busch has just three finishes outside the top 10 and his 1,037 laps led are second-most in the loop data era. There's no reason to move away from the 2015 champion.
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SLEEPER PICK
Chase Elliott
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Learn more about Elliott
Fantasy Live price: $21.50
Fastlane forecast: The rookie has proven to be a quick study thus far. In four NASCAR XFINITY Series starts at 'The Monster Mile,' he never finished worse than seventh. The growth is continuing as his price climbs. Get in now.
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SLEEPER PICK
Kyle Larson
Chip Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates, No. 42 Chevrolet
Learn more about Larson
Fantasy Live price: $20.50
Fastlane forecast: The third-year driver has been running well at times but the finishes just haven't been there. Expect that to change at Dover where Larson has three straight top 10s that back up an average finish of 7.2.
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VALUE PLAY
Tony Stewart
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Chevrolet
Learn more about Stewart
Fantasy Live price: $13.50
Fastlane forecast: Stewart has three wins at Dover, including his most recent win in 2013. 'Smoke' offers place differential value with about a +7 mark at Dover and positive differential in seven of his last eight starts there.
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VALUE PLAY
Michael McDowell
Circle Sport-Leavine Family Racing, No. 95 Chevrolet
Learn more about McDowell
Fantasy Live price: $7.75
Fastlane forecast: McDowell has quietly made some nice strides this season. Of his 10 starts, he has about an average place differential of nearly +5 and a positive place differential in eight races.