Fantasy Fastlane: All in on Shane van Gisbergen, Kaulig Racing at Chicago

There aren’t many races on the calendar more unpredictable than the Chicago Street Race. The thinking last year was that drivers with previous street-course experience would excel. Some did, particularly Shane van Gisbergen, who became the first driver in 60 years to win in their Cup Series debut. With the track starting out wet and becoming dry, it was the perfect recipe for an upset winner. Knock on wood, let’s hope Mother Nature stays far away from the Windy City this weekend. 

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MUST START: 

Shane van Gisbergen | View stats

Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-2

Whether the Chicago city streets are wet or dry, van Gisbergen will be a factor this weekend. His competition knows it, too. The New Zealander put on a clinic last year, turning the fastest speed in practice. He followed that up by pulling off the unthinkable and winning in his Cup debut. Your lineup should center around van Gisbergen this weekend. 

MUST START: 

AJ Allmendinger | View stats

Kaulig Racing, No. 13 Chevrolet

Odds: 12-1

In the inaugural Chicago Street Race, Allmendinger didn’t have the best of showings. He finished 17th and ran outside the top 10 all race. Allmendinger has two street-course victories in CART, however, and is among the best road-course drivers in NASCAR history. By using these two Kaulig drivers, it also frees up other big-name, full-time drivers for later in the regular season.

MUST START: 

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 11-2

With just two starts left for Bell over the final seven regular season races, I’m not going to use the No. 20 car this weekend. That could come back to haunt me, though, because Bell won both stages at the Chicago Street Course last year. But a late mix of strategy relegated him to finishing 18th. Up until wrecking out at Nashville, Bell was the hottest driver in the Cup Series. He also has two road-course victories on his resume. 

MUST START: 

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 17-2

If we’re being honest, last year’s Chicago Street Race weekend started off as a disaster for the No. 9 team. Elliott wrecked hard in qualifying, forcing his team to unload the backup car. During the race, he slipped in the wet and stuffed the No. 9 car nose-deep into the tire barriers. Elliott recovered throughout the race and scored a podium finish. Elliott has yet to win on a road course in the Next Gen car, but he’s always in the mix. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 16-1

It’s astonishing that Buescher has won at just about every kind of track layout in the Cup Series besides a road course. In the Next Gen era, he has 12 top-10 finishes in 14 road-course starts, including a 10th-place finish at Chicago last season. The No. 17 team enters Chicago with consecutive top-five finishes for the first time this season. One thing to note with the elimination line moving up after Joey Logano’s win at Nashville: There is a tight battle between 13th and 16th on the playoff grid. Buescher could be chasing points this weekend. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 50-1

Because Cindric hasn’t had the best results on road courses for the last year-and-a-half, it might be easy to forget how much of an expert he actually is at places like Chicago. Cindric has also competed in multiple street-course races in F2000 and the Pirelli World Challenge. By winning at Gateway last month, the No. 2 team will likely put its sole focus on winning the race and not chasing stage points. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Justin Haley | View stats

Rick Ware Racing, No. 51 Ford

Odds: 100-1

If you want to go off the beaten path a bit, you could do far worse than Haley. He has helped turn Rick Ware Racing into a weekly top-15 challenger and has excelled on road courses, dating back to his days in the Craftsman Truck Series. Haley finished runner-up at Chicago last season and had one of the best battles for the lead all season with van Gisbergen, trading the top spot back and forth between the tight confines of the street course. It would be worth considering Haley for a start this weekend. 

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 35-1

After winning the pole award for last year’s Chicago race, Hamlin thought it was the best single lap he’s ever put together inside a race car. He hit his marks perfectly to win his second pole award of the 2023 season on road courses. That track position lasted one lap as he smacked the Turn 2 tire barrier while running second. He has just one top-10 finish on a road course since 2021.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 30-1

Hate to kick a team while it’s down, but it’s been a trying year for Busch. One week, it’s a spin; another it’s a mechanical failure; then it’s slipping in the rain. Last weekend, it was getting involved in an overtime wreck when Kyle Larson ran out of fuel in front of him. Busch is a superb road-course racer and overcame a wreck into the tire barriers last season to finish fifth. Don’t count Busch out yet, but at 104 points below the elimination line, his playoff hopes are looking slim. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 100-1

While one RFK driver has excelled on road courses in recent seasons, the team's co-owner has not. After a 13th-place finish at Sonoma, Keselowski has just one top-10 finish in the last 20 road-course races. He finished 24th in the inaugural Chicago Street Race and was wedged into the tire barriers on the opening lap of the race. Save a use on the No. 6 car this weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Kyle Larson vs. Chase Elliott

Both Hendrick teammates cracked the top five in the finishing order last season with the advantage going to Elliott. No matter the track condition, Larson is quick to adapt. The No. 5 team has also won a pair of road-course races in the Next Gen car while Elliott is searching for his first. Elliott is in my lineup but I'll actually pick Larson here.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Shane van Gisbergen vs. Denny Hamlin

Very rarely should Hamlin be considered a heavy underdog, but if all is clean and green, there’s almost no shot he can outrun van Gisbergen heads up on a street course. That’s not discrediting Hamlin -- rather praising SVG for how exceptional he is at this craft. Van Gisbergen will be a heavy favorite this weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Tyler Reddick vs. Ty Gibbs

When the track was wet last season, Reddick excelled. He led the first lap ever on the Chicago streets and finished in the top three in both stages. Gibbs scored stage points in both stages as well, placing in the back half of the top 10. I’ve got only three starts left with Reddick over the final seven races, but with races like Daytona and Richmond coming up, you can afford to use the No. 45 car this weekend. Both drivers should have good runs, but Reddick gets my vote.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Austin Cindric vs. AJ Allmendinger

This matchup gives me flashbacks to the 2020 and 2021 Xfinity Series seasons when Cindric and Allmendinger traded barbs with each other on road courses. It was must-see TV. It’s unknown what Cindric’s strategy will be, though as mentioned earlier, I lean towards thinking he will chase after the win. One thing is certain: With Allmendinger running a part-time Kaulig entry, the team’s moniker of “trophy hunting” will be applied at Chicago. Allmendinger is the choice.

MY LINEUP: Shane van Gisbergen, AJ Allmendinger, Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, Michael McDowell

GARAGE: Chris Buescher