Fantasy Fastlane: All signs point to more Toyota domination at Richmond

It's serendipitous that Toyota has been a presenting partner of Richmond Raceway for more than a decade. The manufacturer, specifically Joe Gibbs Racing, is elite at the short track, winning 15 of the last 29 Cup races at Richmond and we could be set to see more of the same this weekend. Ironically, though, Ford and Chevrolet have combined to win the last three, so nothing is set in stone. Toyota also crushed the field at Phoenix Raceway earlier this month when the 2024 short-track package debuted. Fantasy players will earn 10 Fan Rewards points each time they set their lineup in NASCAR Fantasy Live. Fan Rewards is a way for registered users on NASCAR.com to earn points toward things like NASCAR tickets, NASCAR merchandise and more. Learn more about Fan Rewards

MUST START: 

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 17-4

Growing up a skip and a hop away from Richmond, Hamlin has used his home-track advantage to his benefit with four victories and top fives in more than half of his starts at the 0.75-mile track. That success continued into the Next Gen era, as his three top-10 finishes are tied for the most among active drivers at the track over the last two seasons. Kevin Harvick had top 10s in all four races at Richmond in the Next Gen car, but he will be broadcasting the race from the Fox Sports booth.

MUST START: 

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 17-4

Bell’s No. 20 team is firing on all cylinders. He dominated the second half of the race at Phoenix en route to his first win of the season and came up just shy of erasing a 12-second gap to win at COTA last weekend. In six starts with JGR at Richmond, Bell has a whopping five top-10 finishes. And if you go back to his days in the Xfinity Series, he won three of the races that he competed in. He’s elite here.

MUST START: 

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 6-1

Through the first six races of 2024, Truex has yet to finish outside the top 15. But he has just one top-five finish -- coming at Bristol, one of his worst tracks on the schedule. Richmond has recently become one of his best stops, winning three of the past nine races at the Virginia track. He’s led 50-plus laps in 10 of the past 14 races here so expect another top five.

MUST START: 

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 15-1

Many drivers compare Richmond to Phoenix, and if this weekend pans out similarly to earlier this month, we will certainly reassess this choice in the update later this week. RCR had a horrendous showing at Phoenix, with both of its entries starting 30th or worse. The team didn’t recover much in the race. Busch struggled with the short-track package last season but did squeak out a third-place finish at Richmond in July. His Richmond stats are otherworldly, with six victories and 28 top 10s in 36 starts.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 11-1

With three straight top 10s entering Richmond, Buescher is getting in the zone. He finished runner-up at Phoenix earlier this month and won the last time the series visited the River City. His pair of Richmond top fives over the last two seasons came when the track was blistering hot, sitting in the summer sun. There are unknowns this weekend, with it being the first night race at Richmond with the Next Gen car.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Austin Dillon | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet

Odds: 100-1

It has been a brutal start to the 2024 season for Dillon, as he ranks 29th in the regular season standings after six races with five finishes outside of the top 20. The good news is the series heads to Richmond, where the No. 3 car has shined over the past handful of seasons. He has six top 10s in the last 10 Richmond races, so it’s realistic to think Dillon will capture his best finish to date in 2024 this weekend.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Ryan Preece | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford

Odds: 100-1

Add Preece to the drivers who have had trouble getting out of the gate to begin the 2024 season, which includes a 35-point penalty following the Atlanta weekend. Preece is a coveted short-track racer, and he put that on full display during the series’ last trip to Richmond where he finished fifth. It wouldn’t be a total shocker if he duplicated that performance on Sunday, even if the speed hasn't been there yet this year.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 15-1

Blaney will tell you himself that he doesn’t know why it’s taken him so long to adapt to Richmond. And while he does have top 10s in three of the last five races there, those are his only top 10s in 15 starts at Richmond. He’s still looking for his first top five at the track, so it would behoove you to not throw away a start on the No. 12 car this weekend.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 16-1

Reddick figured out qualifying at Richmond in his debut season with 23XI, recording a pair of top-five starting positions and winning the pole for the series’ most recent race there. He led the opening 78 laps -- but just 81 total for the race -- and incrementally began to fall through the field before taking the checkered flag in 15th. I would rank most of the other Toyotas ahead of Reddick this weekend.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 45-1

Akin to his 23XI teammate, Wallace is still searching for his first top-10 finish at Richmond. He has a pair of 12th-place finishes in 11 starts, including last July. Two of his last three Richmond finishes have cracked the top 15. Eight of those 11 finishes, however, have been south of 20th.

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Christopher Bell vs. Kyle Busch

Toyota is going to be the hot hand this weekend, so the clear edge should be with Bell. Both drivers were discussed earlier, but they each have three top 10s at Richmond in the Next Gen car. They make up 40% of active drivers to have three top 10s in the first four races at Richmond in the Next Gen, joining Hamlin, Truex and Joey Logano.

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

William Byron vs. Denny Hamlin 

It should be a light concern that none of the Hendrick Motorsports drivers cracked the top 10 in the final rundown at Phoenix a few weeks back. Meanwhile, Hamlin led 68 laps from the pole and if he didn’t spin during the final stage, he likely would have finished well above 11th. Byron is coming off the win at COTA, but has below average numbers at Richmond with a pair of top 10s in 11 starts.

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Martin Truex Jr. vs. Ty Gibbs

Gibbs continues to be on the upswing, with his crew chief Chris Gayle saying last week that the sophomore driver is ahead of schedule. Gayle mentioned that the No. 54 team was mediocre last season at Richmond and needs to up its game this weekend. Truex and his experience are anything but mediocre at Richmond, so we’re going with the No. 19 car.

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Chase Elliott vs. Alex Bowman

Aside from Bowman’s win at Richmond in 2021, neither driver has been great at Richmond. Elliott does have five top-five finishes, but only one with the Next Gen car. Bowman’s only top five was his victory three years ago, but he does have a pair of eighth-place results with the Next Gen. Leaning towards Elliott, but I don’t have much confidence in that choice.

MY LINEUP: Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, Chris Buescher 

GARAGE: Joey Logano