Fantasy Fastlane: Back home in Indiana once again

For the first time in four years, the Cup Series takes to the famed Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the 30-year anniversary of the inaugural Brickyard 400 after competing on the road course. Eleven of the 40 drivers entered into the crown-jewel event have never competed on the 2.5-mile oval at Indy. Three drivers, including championship contenders Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick, have raced here once. Expect a race filled with strategy, similar to last weekend at Pocono Raceway. Many drivers said last weekend that Turn 3 at Pocono is very reminiscent of Indianapolis now, despite Turn 2 originally being modeled after IMS. 

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MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 4-1

With just two uses left for Hamlin, I’m saving the No. 11 car until the four-week stretch to end the regular season begins following the Olympic break. However, Hamlin is in a tight battle for the regular season championship, so he’s likely going for stage points this weekend. The future Hall of Famer has been outspoken about how much a win at Indianapolis would mean to him. It’s one of the few bucket list items missing from his resume. Hamlin has experienced heartbreak multiple times at the Brickyard, including the most recent race in 2020, when he wrecked while leading with less than 10 laps remaining. 

MUST START:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 15-2

Keselowski and Kyle Busch are the only two full-time drivers in the field who have won the Brickyard 400. Keselowski captured Roger Penske’s lone Indianapolis win in NASCAR in 2018, passing Hamlin with a few laps remaining. He has top five finishes in three of the last four races on the IMS oval and was among the best cars in the field last weekend at Pocono. 

MUST START:

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 9-1

Should similar tendencies carry over from Pocono to Indy, Elliott should be in your lineup. Not many cars could slice through the field as well as the No. 9 car could at Pocono after being mired in the field multiple times. Elliott took over the Regular Season Championship lead from HMS teammate Kyle Larson last weekend, and he is in tight points battle with the top four separated by 20 points. My hesitation here would be that Elliott has a best finish of ninth in five Brickyard 400 attempts. 

MUST START:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 14-1

With Penske’s historic feats at IMS, there is added emphasis on this weekend. Blaney was victorious last weekend at Pocono, but Logano quietly finished fifth. He’s also gone under the radar in 12 starts on the 2.5-mile layout, scoring eight top-10 finishes. He has a pair of runner-up results to Busch and Kevin Harvick, with the most recent coming in 2019. The No. 22 team seems to be heating up, so it would be wise to use him here. Blaney wouldn’t be a bad choice either, though his record at Indy shows a single top 10 in six starts with three DNFs. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 30-1

In recent Brickyard 400s, Busch was among the best, earning consecutive victories in 2015 and 2016 with Joe Gibbs Racing. He was in position for three in a row in 2017, when he tangled with his then-Toyota teammate Martin Truex Jr. He has an impressive 12 top-10 finishes in 16 starts, with nine of those coming in the last 11 races. The downside is that Busch is on a historic low by his Hall of Fame standards, failing to finish in five of the last seven races this season. In that span, he’s been involved in eight wrecks. The bleeding has to stop at some point. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 28-1

With how the 2024 season has panned out thus far, entering the weekend, it’s believable to think Toyota and Hendrick Motorsports will be the cars to beat. Penske has impressed lately, earning four wins over the last seven weeks. Wallace needs another solid weekend, as he’s been chipping away at the elimination line and is now 27 points below Ross Chastain. He also has consecutive top 10s at IMS, including a third-place finish with Richard Petty Motorsports, which could bode well for this weekend. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Josh Berry | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 45-1

While Berry is one of the 11 drivers who has never competed in a Cup Series race at Indianapolis – he’s actually never turned a lap at IMS and will run the Xfinity Series race this weekend to get experience – his crew chief Rodney Childers has quite the record. Albeit Kevin Harvick was behind the wheel, and he’s one of the best drivers at the track in history, winning the Brickyard 400 times on three occasions. Childers has won the last two as a crew chief and has never finished outside the top 10 with SHR. The No. 4 team has gained more speed throughout the season, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Berry earned another top 10. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 14-1

Truex’s quest for a win in his final hoorah might be on hold for at least one more week. His numbers at Indy are bleak, with three DNFs over the last four races. In 16 starts, he has a frustrating average finish of 22.4. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 28-1

With consecutive top fives for the first time since March, Bowman is on a heater entering the Brickyard. If you’re a Bowman fan, you might not want to look up his Indianapolis numbers. In five starts – granted, two of them were with underfunded teams – he’s never finished better than 21st. His average finish of 33.4 makes Truex’s 22.4 not look as bad. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 35-1

All three of Chastain’s starts at Indy have come with underfunded teams, so take that out of the equation this weekend. What’s more important is how the No. 1 team is running currently. He wrecked out of Pocono early into Stage 2 last weekend and was never really a factor beforehand. He has three straight finishes outside the top 20 entering IMS.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ryan Blaney vs. Martin Truex Jr.

By most metrics, Blaney had the fastest car last weekend at Pocono, leading to his second triumph of the season. Truex looked solid early and won the opening stage but faded late in the race. That seems to be a theme around the No. 19 team recently, as he hasn’t earned a top five finish since Kansas in early May. Meanwhile, Blaney is hitting on all cylinders and if he had one more lap of fuel at Gateway, he would have three wins in the last seven races. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Brad Keselowski vs. Alex Bowman

We noted how poorly Bowman has performed at IMS in his handful of starts at IMS, and even if you take the two races with underfunded teams out of the question, his average finish is 28th with Hendrick. Cautions bit the No. 6 team at Pocono, but Keselowski had a car capable of winning. Thinking it will be another strong showing this weekend for him. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Chase Elliott vs. Tyler Reddick

This is intriguing because both drivers are in the regular season title hunt and could have varying strategies for the race. Reddick is on the chip, posting top 10s in seven of the eight races. However, Elliott rallied from a late speeding penalty at Pocono to finish ninth. Going into the weekend, I’m leaning in the direction of the No. 9 car, though both are in my starting lineup. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Joey Logano vs. Ty Gibbs

Of these two drivers, Gibbs is the one with a victory at IMS, though it was in the Xfinity Series and on the road course. Gibbs hadn’t even made his national touring series debut yet the last time the Cup Series raced on the IMS oval. Of drivers who have never won the race, Logano has among the best stats. Logano is the pick. 

MY LINEUP: Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick

GARAGE: William Byron