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Fantasy Fastlane: Bring out the top plays with perhaps one gamble at Darlington
By RJ Kraft | Published: September 4, 2020 18
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Kevin Harvick (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 13-4
Fastlane forecast: Is there a reason not to play Harvick? We can’t think of one. He won the first of two spring races at Darlington this year, averaged 47 points in those two races and has just one finish outside the top five in his last nine starts there. With five uses, be sure to allocate accordingly. I’m looking at using him in three of the first four races – Bristol being the exception.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 13-4
Fastlane forecast: Is there a reason not to play Harvick? We can’t think of one. He won the first of two spring races at Darlington this year, averaged 47 points in those two races and has just one finish outside the top five in his last nine starts there. With five uses, be sure to allocate accordingly. I’m looking at using him in three of the first four races – Bristol being the exception.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Denny Hamlin (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 7-2
Fastlane forecast: If Harvick is 1A, Hamlin is most certainly 1B. Their 2020 game of 'anything you can do, I can do better' seemingly started at Darlington. Hamlin won the second race there this year, has three Cup wins there overall and a 7.2 average finish. The opening two weeks of the postseason are races to make sure you have Hamlin for.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 7-2
Fastlane forecast: If Harvick is 1A, Hamlin is most certainly 1B. Their 2020 game of 'anything you can do, I can do better' seemingly started at Darlington. Hamlin won the second race there this year, has three Cup wins there overall and a 7.2 average finish. The opening two weeks of the postseason are races to make sure you have Hamlin for.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Brad Keselowski (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has one victory at Darlington coming in the 2018 Southern 500. He also has three top fives in his last four starts at the 1.366-mile track and the second-most points over that stretch – an average of 41.5. Despite his successes at other playoff tracks like Martinsville and Las Vegas, Darlington is statistically his best one.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has one victory at Darlington coming in the 2018 Southern 500. He also has three top fives in his last four starts at the 1.366-mile track and the second-most points over that stretch – an average of 41.5. Despite his successes at other playoff tracks like Martinsville and Las Vegas, Darlington is statistically his best one.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Chase Elliott (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott will start from the pole for Sunday's race. He ran well in both spring Darlington races – finishing fourth in the first one and battling for the lead in the second race before a wreck with Kyle Busch just before the race ended. His overall Darlington numbers aren't great, but his solid late summer results and spring showing here are an interesting combination.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott will start from the pole for Sunday's race. He ran well in both spring Darlington races – finishing fourth in the first one and battling for the lead in the second race before a wreck with Kyle Busch just before the race ended. His overall Darlington numbers aren't great, but his solid late summer results and spring showing here are an interesting combination.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex enters the playoffs as the hottest driver not in the Harvick-Hamlin part of the field with eight straight top-four finishes. That's a strong run that is very hard to ignore. Truex has one win at Darlington – coming in 2016. He nabbed two top 10s in the spring and the third-most points in those races.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex enters the playoffs as the hottest driver not in the Harvick-Hamlin part of the field with eight straight top-four finishes. That's a strong run that is very hard to ignore. Truex has one win at Darlington – coming in 2016. He nabbed two top 10s in the spring and the third-most points in those races.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Joey Logano (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano's overall numbers at Darlington leave a bit to be desired, but he does have four top-six finishes in his last seven starts there. He comes into the playoffs with an average of 36.7 points over the last seven 2020 races. A play here is fine, but the upcoming tracks – specifically Richmond and Las Vegas – offer plenty of opportunity for usages as well.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano's overall numbers at Darlington leave a bit to be desired, but he does have four top-six finishes in his last seven starts there. He comes into the playoffs with an average of 36.7 points over the last seven 2020 races. A play here is fine, but the upcoming tracks – specifically Richmond and Las Vegas – offer plenty of opportunity for usages as well.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Kyle Busch (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch only has one Cup win at Darlington (in 2008), but he has a slew of strong performances. The last five races there have seen him score three top-three finishes, including a runner-up in the shorter of the two spring races. The playoffs are a clean slate for the 2019 champ after an up-and-down regular season.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch only has one Cup win at Darlington (in 2008), but he has a slew of strong performances. The last five races there have seen him score three top-three finishes, including a runner-up in the shorter of the two spring races. The playoffs are a clean slate for the 2019 champ after an up-and-down regular season.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Kurt Busch (P) | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2004 champ's overall body of work at Darlington is a bit suspect, but the recent returns have been much better. He has four top-seven finishes in his last five starts there and five top-seven finishes in his last seven starts there. The downside? He enters the 2020 postseason on a little bit of a cold spell with only one race more than 30 points in his last eight races.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2004 champ's overall body of work at Darlington is a bit suspect, but the recent returns have been much better. He has four top-seven finishes in his last five starts there and five top-seven finishes in his last seven starts there. The downside? He enters the 2020 postseason on a little bit of a cold spell with only one race more than 30 points in his last eight races.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Alex Bowman (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: In the two spring races, Bowman averaged 40.5 points at Darlington – including a runner-up finish in the first race. He also had top-seven green flag speed averages in both races – one of three drivers to do so (Hamlin and Elliott were the others). Also in his favor, he dominated at Auto Club in March – another high-wear track on the circuit.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: In the two spring races, Bowman averaged 40.5 points at Darlington – including a runner-up finish in the first race. He also had top-seven green flag speed averages in both races – one of three drivers to do so (Hamlin and Elliott were the others). Also in his favor, he dominated at Auto Club in March – another high-wear track on the circuit.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Erik Jones | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: It is weird to consider the defending Southern 500 winner a sleeper, but since Jones isn’t in the playoffs, that’s what we are doing. That said, he carries the best average finish at the track "Too Tough to Tame" of any driver in the field at 5.4 and has never finished worse than eighth here. He also scored the sixth-most points in the spring races here this year.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: It is weird to consider the defending Southern 500 winner a sleeper, but since Jones isn’t in the playoffs, that’s what we are doing. That said, he carries the best average finish at the track "Too Tough to Tame" of any driver in the field at 5.4 and has never finished worse than eighth here. He also scored the sixth-most points in the spring races here this year.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick loves the high-wear tracks where he can run the fence and make fast lap times. He averaged 28.5 points in the two spring Darlington races and had a top-five run at another high-wear track at Miami. Don't sweat the starting spot – he started 29th in the first spring race and finished seventh; he started 24th at Miami and finished fourth.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick loves the high-wear tracks where he can run the fence and make fast lap times. He averaged 28.5 points in the two spring Darlington races and had a top-five run at another high-wear track at Miami. Don't sweat the starting spot – he started 29th in the first spring race and finished seventh; he started 24th at Miami and finished fourth.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Matt DiBenedetto (P) | View stats
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Two of DiBenedetto’s last three starts at Darlington have resulted in top-10 finishes. In the two spring races at the 1.366-mile track, he had an average of 26 points. He's an interesting option to consider and one who is likely to be scarcely owned with uses resetting for the playoffs.
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Two of DiBenedetto’s last three starts at Darlington have resulted in top-10 finishes. In the two spring races at the 1.366-mile track, he had an average of 26 points. He's an interesting option to consider and one who is likely to be scarcely owned with uses resetting for the playoffs.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Austin Dillon (P) | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 65-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon's 13.2 average finish at Darlington stands as his second-best mark at an active track. The track that’s better for him? Miami. Dillon, like RCR counterpart Reddick, fares well at high-wear tracks. Dillon's true value lies in his solid standing on intermediate tracks in 2020.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 65-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon's 13.2 average finish at Darlington stands as his second-best mark at an active track. The track that’s better for him? Miami. Dillon, like RCR counterpart Reddick, fares well at high-wear tracks. Dillon's true value lies in his solid standing on intermediate tracks in 2020.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Ryan Blaney (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Let's get the bad news out of the way first. This is not a place to play Blaney. He has no top 10s, no finish better than 13th and an average finish of 19.9 in seven starts. You'll see him in this spot again next week at Richmond – a track he has fared even worse at. After that, though, turn him loose with the Round of 12 tracks especially inviting for him.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Let's get the bad news out of the way first. This is not a place to play Blaney. He has no top 10s, no finish better than 13th and an average finish of 19.9 in seven starts. You'll see him in this spot again next week at Richmond – a track he has fared even worse at. After that, though, turn him loose with the Round of 12 tracks especially inviting for him.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: William Byron (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's Daytona winner enters the playoffs with two straight top-five finishes on the season. The stats suggest that streak comes to a close at Darlington – a track where he has finished no better than 12th and has two finishes outside the top 30 in four starts. The major flag here is his intermediate numbers as a whole have been a bit underwhelming.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's Daytona winner enters the playoffs with two straight top-five finishes on the season. The stats suggest that streak comes to a close at Darlington – a track where he has finished no better than 12th and has two finishes outside the top 30 in four starts. The major flag here is his intermediate numbers as a whole have been a bit underwhelming.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Clint Bowyer (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 65-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer's overall body of work at Darlington has seen just two top 10s and a 21.3 average finish – his worst at any active track on the circuit. The spring races saw him produce the seventh-most points but not get the finishes as his 19.5 average finish was 19th-best in those races. I'd use Bowyer at the short tracks and the Charlotte Roval but nowhere else.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 65-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer's overall body of work at Darlington has seen just two top 10s and a 21.3 average finish – his worst at any active track on the circuit. The spring races saw him produce the seventh-most points but not get the finishes as his 19.5 average finish was 19th-best in those races. I'd use Bowyer at the short tracks and the Charlotte Roval but nowhere else.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Kevin Harvick (P), Denny Hamlin (P), Brad Keselowski (P), Martin Truex Jr. (P), Alex Bowman (P); Garage: Tyler Reddick/Erik Jones.
I'm saving Chase Elliott and Joey Logano starts, and there's a good chance I'll have both in my Richmond lineup.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 6 p.m. ET on NBCSN.
I'm saving Chase Elliott and Joey Logano starts, and there's a good chance I'll have both in my Richmond lineup.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 6 p.m. ET on NBCSN.