Fantasy Fastlane: Heavy hitters on the bubble for Martinsville elimination race

We've got a points battle heading into the Championship 4 elimination race at Martinsville Speedway. The best part is that most bubble drivers have performed exceptionally well at the famed half-mile in recent years. Do you go all in on Denny Hamlin? What about Ryan Blaney's late-season rise? You can't forget about Martin Truex Jr., too — after all, it is Martin's-ville.

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MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 11-4

For so long, 2023 felt like Hamlin's year. The No. 11 team has been one of a handful of groups that have been lights out on all track layouts. Hamlin won the most recent short-track race at Bristol last month and is among the greats in Martinsville history. His five wins at the track are the most among all active drivers, and he's led more than 100 laps in three of the last five races — two of which were north of 200 circuits. It seems like a lifetime since he won there in 2015, but he needs to be nearly perfect this weekend and can do it. 

MUST START:

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 9-1

Of the remaining eight playoff drivers, Truex has had the most consistent success at Martinsville recently, though Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell and William Byron have all won at the half-mile track since Truex's last triumph in 2021. It wasn't long ago when the No. 19 team reeled off three wins in four races at the track. He's led a combined nine laps in the four races since. That goes with how his playoffs have gone, with an average finish of 22nd through the first eight races. But imagine the confidence boost the No. 19 team will have if Truex wins and advances to the Championship 4.

MUST START:

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 12-1

Beginning to see a theme here. Of all active drivers who have yet to celebrate on the front stretch in front of the fans at Martinsville, Blaney might be the best. His last nine starts at the Virginia track have all been inside the top 11, with seven top 10s. He's led more than 100 laps at the track in two of his 15 starts. His average finish is an impressive 9.5, and he is riding a wave of momentum into the weekend, coming off his first top-five finish on a non-superspeedway since winning the Coca-Cola 600 in May.

MUST START:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 17-2

Keselowski was in contention to win this race last year but was disqualified after the race concluded. His consistency at Martinsville is mind-blowing, with 11 top 10s over a 12-race span between 2016 and 2021. The No. 6 team has shown race-winning-capable speed in recent weeks. Maybe he stinks up the party for the bubble drivers on Sunday.

SLEEPER PICK:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 14-1

To call Logano a sleeper at Martinsville might be a crime, but his lone win at the track came, dramatically, way back in 2018. The No. 22 team enters the paperclip with eight consecutive top 10s at Martinsville, though, and has a pair of runner-up finishes in the three Next Gen races. Short tracks tend to level out the playing field a bit, so it would be shocking if he isn't competitive this weekend after an early playoff exit.

SLEEPER PICK:

Aric Almirola | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford

Odds: 30-1

There have been a few times this has been said over the last couple of years, but Stewart-Haas Racing dominated the early portion of the spring race at Martinsville and could make an appearance this weekend. Almirola earned stage points in both stages after qualifying third and ended the race in sixth position. That's his best finish of the year on a non-superspeedway.

SLEEPER PICK:

Ryan Preece | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford

Odds: 45-1

When Preece goes to a track, he often has plenty of laps around in a Whelen modified and expects to run well based on his successes there. That swagger carried the No. 41 to the pole in April, where Preece led the opening 135 laps before being busted for speeding on pit road. With top 20s in five of the past seven races in 2023, Preece continues to make gains in his first season with SHR.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 15-1

As Reddick enters Martinsville, he is in a precarious situation, sitting 10 points below Blaney for the final transfer spot to the Championship 4. He's flying under the radar compared to the drivers around him, with most of the talk being about Hamlin and Truex, who are seven points behind Reddick. His Martinsville numbers are lackluster at best, scoring just one top 10 in seven starts. Five of those have been 18th or worse.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 22-1

It's been a disheartening two races for Buescher after making it to the Round of 8 for the first time in his career. The tracks didn't set up well for the Texan, though he's broken many of his past trends this season. Martinsville is another track where he's seen minute success in the past, with a single top 10 in 16 starts. In the three Next Gen races in southern Virginia, he does have a pair of top 15s but that likely won't be enough.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Daniel Suarez | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet

Odds: 65-1

There will be much attention on Trackhouse this weekend, reliving Ross Chastain's 'Hail-Melon' move from one year ago. No doubt, it was among the most memorable laps in NASCAR history, but that excitement hasn't translated to the 99 — Suarez's track record could be much better at Martinsville. He has just two top 10s in 13 starts, with the last coming in the spring of 2019. The good news is that the only seven laps he's led at Martinsville came in the series' most recent visit.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Tyler Reddick vs. Chris Buescher

Choose wisely here, as both have uninspiring numbers at Martinsville. Let's revisit this one after practice and qualifying in the Fantasy Update, but if I must choose to enter the weekend, I'll go with Buescher.

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Ryan Blaney vs. Denny Hamlin

No "hack" moves this weekend, and it will be a dogfight for what could be the final spot to Phoenix. With Hamlin 17 points behind Blaney, he's not necessarily in must-win mode. It would behoove the No. 11 team to think they have to win, but the reality is, it needs to stock up on stage points and hope Blaney falters and no one on the outside-looking-in wins. After all, Blaney was 17 points out entering Homestead and made up 27 points on the bubble. It's certainly doable and easy to lean on Hamlin's experience so he's the pick. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Martin Truex Jr. vs. William Byron

Byron enters Martinsville with a comfortable 30 points to the good of the elimination line. He's also a perfectly acceptable choice for your fantasy lineup this weekend, with six top 10s in the last eight Martinsville races. However, it's time for the real No. 19 team to show up, as its playoff woes have kept them down. Truex is in the exact same spot as Hamlin, though he's been dreadful at scoring stage points over the last two months. Let's go with Truex to make it enjoyable.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Christopher Bell vs. Kyle Larson

Neither driver is great at Martinsville, but they have flourished in winning the last two races at "The Paperclip." Larson was ecstatic in the spring, stating he never believed he would win there. Since joining Hendrick Motorsports, his performance has greatly improved everywhere, so he gets my vote this weekend. Bell can sit back, relax, and focus on Phoenix. 

MY LINEUP: Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano

GARAGE: Kevin Harvick