Fantasy Fastlane: Can 23XI Racing make it a trifecta at Kansas?

It would have been nice to drive a Toyota at Kansas Speedway in the Next Gen car’s first season last year. Both races saw Toyota drivers occupy four of the top five finishing positions, with the lone outliers being Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson (spring) and Alex Bowman (fall). The No. 45 Toyota, in particular, was strong, leading 174 of 534 laps between two different drivers. That team swept the Kansas races in 2022 with Kurt Busch and Bubba Wallace. 

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MUST START: 

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 8-1

It didn’t seem to matter who drove the No. 45 car or who the crew chief was at Kansas last year since it was unstoppable. While driving for Richard Childress Racing, Reddick wasn’t too bad himself, though unfortunate circumstances hindered his performance last year. He blew tires in both races, despite starting from the front and leading laps in both events. This is a bounce-back opportunity for him this weekend.

MUST START: 

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 14-1

It would seem a bit silly to keep Wallace off your starting lineup this weekend. Not only did he break through to win his first Cup race on a non-superspeedway in the fall, but he was the highest-finishing Toyota at Las Vegas two months ago, the series’ lone visit to a mile-and-a-half thus far in 2023. He finished inside the top 10 in both Kansas races last season.

MUST START: 

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 8-1

Confidence and momentum can pay dividends in racing, and the No. 19 team has exactly that after Truex snapped a 54-race winless streak at Dover. Truex has been stout at Kansas since rejoining the Toyota family in 2017, with 11 top-10 and six top-five finishes in 12 starts. Now that the No. 19 crew has a win out of the way, it wouldn’t be surprising if it rattled off a few more.

MUST START: 

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 7-1

It wasn’t long ago when Hamlin had erratic finishes at Kansas. But he was one of two drivers, along with Christopher Bell, to have top fives in both races last season and has three such finishes dating back to the fall 2021 event. Add in that the No. 11 car has visited Victory Lane in two of the last seven Kansas races, and it's a recipe for success this weekend.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Ty Gibbs | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 54 Toyota 

Odds: 40-1

Since we’re high on Toyota entering the weekend, let’s give the rookie his just due. Gibbs has four top-10 efforts in the last seven races this season and was on his way to his best career run at Dover until he pitted late in the race for fuel. He wrecked out of Kansas in his lone Cup start at the track last fall, but he did win his first Xfinity Series race at the track in 2021.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 66-1

After earning his second top-10 finish of the season at COTA in late March, Cindric rose to seventh in the championship standings. Since then, it’s been a downward spiral with five straight finishes of 19th or worse – four of those being 26th or worse. Cindric has dropped to 19th in points, and he is desperate for a solid finish at Kansas. The good thing is that he had an average finish of 11.5 in the two Kansas races last season.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Noah Gragson | View stats

Legacy Motor Club, No. 42 Chevrolet

Odds: 500-1

It’s been a real struggle for Gragson in his rookie Cup season this year. He sits 32nd in the championship standings, second worst of drivers to have started all 11 races. Gragson finished 18th in both Kansas races last season for Kaulig Racing. His team announced earlier this week that it will join the Toyota family in 2024.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 12-1

At the beginning of Busch’s career, he dreaded going to Kansas. He had just two top-10 finishes in his first 14 starts at the track. In the second half of his career, he’s gotten much better at the track, which includes a pair of wins. The Randall Burnett-led crew had tire issues in both Kansas races last year, which is a slight worry.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 16-1

The number to watch here is 17. Logano has finished 17th in three of the last four Kansas races – and four out of the last seven. Since the spring race in 2019, the No. 22 Ford has just a pair of top-10 finishes in eight races. Avoid using a start on Logano this weekend, who also has three finishes of 30th or worse in the last four races this season.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats

JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet

Odds: 100-1

The No. 47 team might be the most pleasant surprise in all of NASCAR this season. Stenhouse is just one top 10 away from tying the most he’s had in four seasons at JTG, and he has more than two-thirds of the season to accomplish it. But the heartland of Kansas has been his nemesis. In 20 starts, he has a single top 10. Granted, it did come in this race last year. But his average finish at the track is 20.1, so stay far away from Stenhouse this weekend. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Denny Hamlin vs. Martin Truex Jr.

A few years ago, Truex would have been the guaranteed answer. But Hamlin turned his Kansas fortune around and was chasing down Wallace toward the end of the fall race. Your guess is as good as mine for this one, but Hamlin has had more raw speed – he has the most quality passes in the series – this season, and something tends to often bite the No. 11 team. Still, I’m going with Hamlin.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Josh Berry vs. Ty Gibbs

With how much speed Hendrick Motorsports showed at the first 1.5-mile track this season, it won’t be surprising if they stand out again. But my hunch is it will be a JGR day. And with how Gibbs has matured since the start of the season, it wouldn’t be too surprising if he was contending for wins soon. Gibbs is my choice.  

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Tyler Reddick vs. Bubba Wallace

The one-on-one battle at 23XI is on. Good thing it’s not on the basketball court and Michael Jordan isn’t involved. The easy choice would be Wallace, given he’s the most recent winner at the track. However, had Reddick not experienced tire problems in both races last season, he might have been the one driver who could have contested the Toyotas. Should all four tires stay up, Reddick should outrun Wallace, even if it’s just by a spot or two.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ross Chastain vs. Kyle Larson

As you see, the lone non-Toyota driver in my lineup this weekend is Larson. With how his last month of finishes have gone, one must think he will be out for vengeance at Kansas, even if he doesn’t wind up in Victory Lane. In his four races at Kansas with HMS, Larson has led 291 of 1,068 laps (27.2%). I do have Chastain available to use as well.

MY LINEUP: Tyler Reddick, Bubba Wallace, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Larson

GARAGE: Ross Chastain