Fantasy Fastlane: Can Hendrick Motorsports repeat its Dover performance from 2021?

Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM (as of Wednesday).




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MUST START:
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Throughout Truex’s Cup career, he’s been able to get around Dover at a rapid pace. Flashback to 15 years ago when he earned his first series win at his home racetrack. And since 2016, nobody has been better at the Monster Mile, having won twice and posting eight top-five finishes in the last 10 races – six of which were inside of the top three.

MUST START:
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 8-1
This could finally be the weekend that Elliott snags his first victory on an oval since winning the 2020 championship. In 11 career starts at Dover, NASCAR’s four-time NMPA Most Popular Driver has eight top-five finishes. It has been feast or famine, however, as he doesn’t have an additional top 10.

MUST START:
Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-2
Remember what Hendrick Motorsports did last year at Dover, going 1-2-3-4, becoming just the third team in NASCAR history to accomplish that feat? Larson had the dominant car throughout the race, leading 263 laps, but he lost the lead to Alex Bowman on pit road. Like Elliott, Larson has been stout at Dover, with 10 top-10 results in 13 races.

MUST START:
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 14-1
We’re bringing out all the big guns this weekend. It took Harvick 30 tries to sneak into Victory Lane at the Monster Mile, but since 2015, he’s been hard to stop. The No. 4 car rides a streak of seven straight top-10 finishes at Dover, with his worst outing being sixth. Don’t be surprised if this is Harvick’s breakout race this season.

SLEEPER PICK:
Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1
Should the defending race winner be a sleeper? Probably not. But if you ask Kyle Busch, he would probably say Bowman probably backed into that Dover win, too, by taking the lead on pit road. Quietly, Bowman is having his most consistent season to date, earning an average finish of 11.1, which ranks second best in the series only behind Elliott.

SLEEPER PICK:
Daniel Suárez | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Without a doubt, Dover has been Suárez’s best circuit since entering the Cup Series in 2017. In four starts at the track for Joe Gibbs Racing, he earned top-10 finishes each time. In five starts since, he’s scored just one top 10, coming last May. There’s no questioning the speed of the No. 99 team this season, it’s just a matter of putting a full race together. He also has an Xfinity Series victory to his credit at the Delaware track.

SLEEPER PICK:
Erik Jones | View stats
Petty GMS Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 80-1
The finish to last weekend’s race at Talladega was a heartbreaker for Jones. But he’s proven to have more speed in 2022 than the No. 43 team has had in many years. While he doesn’t have earth-shattering numbers at Dover, the Michigan native does have six top 20s, including a pair of top 10s.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Who would have thought that after 10 races in the Next Gen era, Hamlin would have just one top-10 effort? Granted, that was a win at Richmond. Historically, Hamlin has had trouble getting around Dover, and with the way his season has gone thus far, stay away from the No. 11 team this week.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 12-1
While Blaney’s numbers aren’t bad at Dover, they don’t particularly stand out, either. In 11 races, he has a pair of eighth-place finishes, with everything else coming outside the top 10. The No. 12 team has shown speed all year, but more times than not, they haven’t gotten the finish they’ve probably deserved for one reason or another.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Kurt Busch | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota
Odds: 50-1
The last lap of Talladega was the epitome of 23XI Racing’s season so far. Unfortunately, not much has gone right for either Busch or Bubba Wallace. And surprisingly, the 2004 Cup champion hasn’t had a whole lot of success at Dover, though competing in 42 races at the track. He has eight DNFs, with an average finish of 17.9.

MY LINEUP: Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Daniel Suárez; Garage: Alex Bowman