Fantasy Fastlane: Racing for points or the win at the Charlotte Roval?

With the Round of 12 wrapping up this weekend at the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course, we’ve got a dilemma on our hands. With stage cautions being implemented for the first time on road courses in 2023, many teams are going to flip flop the strategy and pit with a few laps remaining in the stage to gain track position at the start of the next. Playoff teams that need points will likely stay out and be mired in the middle of the pack for the start of the next stage. Choose wisely. The most points ever scored at the Charlotte Roval in a single race is 52. 

Fantasy players will earn 10 Fan Rewards points each time they set their lineup in NASCAR Fantasy Live. Fan Rewards is a way for registered users on NASCAR.com to earn points toward things like NASCAR tickets, NASCAR merchandise and more. Learn more about Fan Rewards.

MUST START:

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9

Chevrolet Odds: 6-1

Do we really need to go over Elliott’s numbers at the Charlotte road course? He’s mastered the 17-turn layout, being the only driver to score multiple victories. He can win anywhere, but this might be his best shot to win at any of the remaining five races on the 2023 schedule. One thing to watch is the No. 9 team is still in contention for the owner’s championship, 20 points above the elimination line. It’s possible Elliott secures stage points for one stage and then races for the win.

MUST START:

Tyler Reddick | View stats 

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 7-1

The best road-course racer of the playoff drivers chasing points is Reddick, having won three of the last nine road course races. It’s possible he has a day like Elliott did in 2020, when he raced for stage points and had enough speed to win the race. The key for the No. 45 team will be making no mistakes, as we saw Reddick do earlier this season at the Chicago Street Race and with a cut tire at Sonoma.

MUST START:

Michael McDowell | View stats

Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford

Odds: 9-1

As McDowell has proven in the last two road course races, he will have the speed to contend for the win. The No. 34 team’s strategy should be slightly clearer, having already been eliminated from the playoffs. And if he gets out front late, it’s going to be hard to take the lead away. Christopher Bell aborted stage points last year and won the race, tallying 40 points. That might be the play with McDowell.

MUST START:

AJ Allmendinger | View stats

Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet

Odds: 10-1

Copy and paste from above with McDowell. The only difference is the No. 34 car has shown winning speed on road courses in 2023, whereas Allmendinger has primarily had a fifth- to 10th-place car. Allmendinger is hungry for a win, though, and is undefeated at the track in Xfinity Series competition with four straight wins. He finished fourth at the Charlotte road course last season in Cup.

SLEEPER PICK:

Ty Gibbs | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 54 Toyota

Odds: 20-1

Quietly, Gibbs has had an excellent rookie season, and he’s soared to the top at road courses. The last time out at Watkins Glen, the No. 54 car was a mainstay inside the top five and tied the best finish of his career. The week before that at Indianapolis, he got spun, dropped outside the top 30 and rallied back to 12th without a caution. It won’t be surprising if Gibbs’ first Cup win comes on a road course soon.

SLEEPER PICK:

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 35-1

It might come as a surprise, but Bowman is a severely underrated road-course competitor. He’s yet to reach the Winner’s Circle, but he has top 10s in all four of his starts at the Charlotte road course. He’s also been competitive this season at COTA and Indianapolis, securing top-five finishes.

SLEEPER PICK:

Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 35-1

Knowing that Cindric is an ace on road courses and seeing his speed this season has been a mystery. Team Penske has primarily struggled this season when turning left and right, but Cindric has managed to get track position and has a pair of sixth-place finishes. What makes Cindric dangerous is he’s solely chasing the win and can strategize his race accordingly.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 28-1

Logano has just one road-course win, coming eight years ago at Watkins Glen. He does have three top 10s across the five road-course races in 2023 and most of them have come from getting track position. Logano is known to be among the toughest drivers to pass in the field, but his inconsistency this season is concerning.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 65-1

Look away, Keselowski fans; there’s a good chance your driver drops below the elimination line – and ultimately eliminated from the playoffs – following this weekend. Keselowski has one top 10 in the last 10 road-course races (finished 10th at Sonoma last season) and a best finish of 15th in the five races this season. You might want to pray for chaos because it’s almost a guarantee that Reddick will outpoint the No. 6 car by more than two points. And if he doesn’t, Ross Chastain is also a respectable road racer and can make up nine points in a hurry. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 100-1

Wallace has improved greatly on road courses since joining 23XI Racing. He’s more competitive and can sneak out a top 10. He said recently that his 12th-place finish at Watkins Glen was among the proudest moments of his career. For fantasy sake, you will get better uses out of Wallace the following two weeks at Las Vegas and Homestead, as Toyotas have shined on intermediate tracks.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Kyle Busch vs. Ross Chastain

Busch sits 26 points below the elimination line, and he is in must-win mode this weekend. It’s realistic too, as he’s had two runner-up finishes on road courses in 2023 and the No. 8 team won twice on road courses last season with Reddick. Chastain will be hunting for points, giving him the advantage for the first two stages. Track position will be important for the final stage, so Busch is who should end up out front. 

FEATERED MATCHUP:

Tyler Reddick vs. Kyle Larson

Both drivers need points this weekend, and the Charlotte Roval was the race last season that eliminated Larson from championship contention. It’s easy to slip up and the best can do it around the treacherous track. Reddick has had more speed on road courses this season, so even while he might be mired back in traffic at the start of the final stage, he should weave through the field. 

FEATERED MATCHUP: 

Bubba Wallace vs. Brad Keselowski

Pick your poison here. Neither driver shines on road courses, but it’s Wallace who I trust more. After coming close to winning multiple road course races early in his career, Keselowski hasn’t progressed the way most drivers have when making left- and right-hand turns. Wallace has improved, thus why he’s the pick. 

FEATERED MATCHUP: 

William Byron vs. Ryan Blaney

Already being locked into the Round of 8, Byron and Blaney are chasing playoff points this weekend. Byron typically qualifies well at road courses – earning three of his 11 career poles on such tracks – which will give him the advantage at the start. Blaney won the inaugural Roval race in 2018, though he needed a last-lap crash to get by. Byron won the series’ last time out on a road course at Watkins Glen, so expect another strong performance from the No. 24 team this weekend. 

MY LINEUP: Chase Elliott, Michael McDowell, AJ Allmendinger, Tyler Reddick, Kyle Busch

GARAGE: Ty Gibbs