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Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Pinching our claws to the JGR wagon at New Hampshire
By RJ Kraft | Friday, July 16, 2021
NASCAR Digital Media
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 21-4
Fastlane forecast: A pit road penalty derailed Larson's day at Atlanta and hurts even more if you have limited uses left. In 10 New Hampshire starts, Larson has three runner-up finishes to go with an additional top five and two other top 10s. He has the fifth-most points with the 750-horsepower package on non-road courses. At one use, I'm holding him back for either Watkins Glen or Michigan. At two, I'd lean toward saving but would more open to a use.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 21-4
Fastlane forecast: A pit road penalty derailed Larson's day at Atlanta and hurts even more if you have limited uses left. In 10 New Hampshire starts, Larson has three runner-up finishes to go with an additional top five and two other top 10s. He has the fifth-most points with the 750-horsepower package on non-road courses. At one use, I'm holding him back for either Watkins Glen or Michigan. At two, I'd lean toward saving but would more open to a use.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 11-2
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has three Cup wins at New Hampshire and has also been the runner-up finisher in the last two races at the "Magic Mile." Among drivers with more than one start here, he has the best average finish (9.6) and this is also his best track left in the regular season. I have one use left and he will be in my lineup, so that should tell you how strongly I feel about this play.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 11-2
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has three Cup wins at New Hampshire and has also been the runner-up finisher in the last two races at the "Magic Mile." Among drivers with more than one start here, he has the best average finish (9.6) and this is also his best track left in the regular season. I have one use left and he will be in my lineup, so that should tell you how strongly I feel about this play.
Sarah Stier | Getty Images
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Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: The two-time champion has certainly found a rhythm of late with four straight top-three finishes, six top fives in his last seven races and eight top fives in his last 11 races – both of his wins have also come in that stretch. Busch has three victories on his Cup resume at New Hampshire and seven top fives in his last 13 starts there. His average finish is better at Watkins Glen but I like the pole position start here for my final KFB use.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: The two-time champion has certainly found a rhythm of late with four straight top-three finishes, six top fives in his last seven races and eight top fives in his last 11 races – both of his wins have also come in that stretch. Busch has three victories on his Cup resume at New Hampshire and seven top fives in his last 13 starts there. His average finish is better at Watkins Glen but I like the pole position start here for my final KFB use.
Logan Riely | Getty Images
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Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: All three of Truex’s 2021 wins have come with the 750-package that will also be run at New Hampshire. This is a track he has yet to win at, but he has not finished outside the top seven in the last six races there. At three uses left, I’d absolutely play him here as opposed to Michigan. At two uses left, I’d be inclined to use him at Watkins Glen and here with a front-row starting spot and figure out the Indianapolis Road Course later.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: All three of Truex’s 2021 wins have come with the 750-package that will also be run at New Hampshire. This is a track he has yet to win at, but he has not finished outside the top seven in the last six races there. At three uses left, I’d absolutely play him here as opposed to Michigan. At two uses left, I’d be inclined to use him at Watkins Glen and here with a front-row starting spot and figure out the Indianapolis Road Course later.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: The New England native is right at home at New Hampshire with two wins in his Cup career there, and this track comes at a good time as he's hit a little lull in his performance. He also has five top fives and eight top 10s in his last 10 starts at the "Magic Mile." He's also scored the second-most points with the 750-package at non-road courses (an average of 41.4 points) and has the second-best average finish (5.7).
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: The New England native is right at home at New Hampshire with two wins in his Cup career there, and this track comes at a good time as he's hit a little lull in his performance. He also has five top fives and eight top 10s in his last 10 starts at the "Magic Mile." He's also scored the second-most points with the 750-package at non-road courses (an average of 41.4 points) and has the second-best average finish (5.7).
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron's three-race run of finishes outside the top 10 is his longest such streak of the season. And while he has no top 10s at New Hampshire, there's reason to believe the drought ends there as it's his second-best Cup track (at venues with more than one start) based on average finish. He's also scored the third-most points with the 750-package on non-road courses this year and nabbed top 10s in all seven of those races.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron's three-race run of finishes outside the top 10 is his longest such streak of the season. And while he has no top 10s at New Hampshire, there's reason to believe the drought ends there as it's his second-best Cup track (at venues with more than one start) based on average finish. He's also scored the third-most points with the 750-package on non-road courses this year and nabbed top 10s in all seven of those races.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Yes, Harvick has won three of the last six races at New Hampshire (he has four Cup wins there in his career), but this isn't the same No. 4 juggernaut of recent years. However, the results with the 750-package on non-road courses have been steady with three straight top-six finishes. He has the eighth-most points (average of 31.8) with it and the sixth-best average finish (10.1). This is a calculated gamble I am taking especially with the uses to do so.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Yes, Harvick has won three of the last six races at New Hampshire (he has four Cup wins there in his career), but this isn't the same No. 4 juggernaut of recent years. However, the results with the 750-package on non-road courses have been steady with three straight top-six finishes. He has the eighth-most points (average of 31.8) with it and the sixth-best average finish (10.1). This is a calculated gamble I am taking especially with the uses to do so.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney seems to be coming back around at the right time with three top-six finishes and 35-plus-point days in his last four races. He has top 10s in three of his last four New Hampshire starts with a best finish of fourth coming in 2019. The bigger boon for fantasy players: In six of the seven 750-package races on non-road courses, he has scored at least 32 points. I'll take the odds of that happening again at a track where Team Penske has run well.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney seems to be coming back around at the right time with three top-six finishes and 35-plus-point days in his last four races. He has top 10s in three of his last four New Hampshire starts with a best finish of fourth coming in 2019. The bigger boon for fantasy players: In six of the seven 750-package races on non-road courses, he has scored at least 32 points. I'll take the odds of that happening again at a track where Team Penske has run well.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski is the reigning winner at New Hampshire and has two wins there for his Cup career. His 10.5 average finish is second-best among drivers with more than one start here. After a sluggish late spring into summer, he's notched three top 10s in his last four races. However, he has struggled with the 750-package at non-road courses in 2021 with just one top 10 and the 15th-most points. The lack of 750 success this year has me leaning away from the 2012 champion.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski is the reigning winner at New Hampshire and has two wins there for his Cup career. His 10.5 average finish is second-best among drivers with more than one start here. After a sluggish late spring into summer, he's notched three top 10s in his last four races. However, he has struggled with the 750-package at non-road courses in 2021 with just one top 10 and the 15th-most points. The lack of 750 success this year has me leaning away from the 2012 champion.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: The numbers flat-out say this is a play not to consider as Bowman has finished no better than 11th in nine New Hampshire starts. But there are some added layers of intrigue to consider. He has two wins with this rules package and Hendrick remains the class of the field so having one of their cars in your lineup is far from a bad idea – and he's likely the one you have the most uses left on.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: The numbers flat-out say this is a play not to consider as Bowman has finished no better than 11th in nine New Hampshire starts. But there are some added layers of intrigue to consider. He has two wins with this rules package and Hendrick remains the class of the field so having one of their cars in your lineup is far from a bad idea – and he's likely the one you have the most uses left on.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick's lone Cup start at New Hampshire produced a top-10 finish last year. The second-year driver continues to make big strides in his sophomore season as he enters the race with three straight top 10s and an average of 39.7 points over that same stretch. Sitting +96 on the cutline, expect him to look to gobble up points from a top-10 starting spot.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick's lone Cup start at New Hampshire produced a top-10 finish last year. The second-year driver continues to make big strides in his sophomore season as he enters the race with three straight top 10s and an average of 39.7 points over that same stretch. Sitting +96 on the cutline, expect him to look to gobble up points from a top-10 starting spot.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Christopher Bell | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: While he finished 28th last year at New Hampshire, Bell had the 10th-fastest car on green-flag speed in the race based on loop data. This was a fruitful track for him in the Xfinity Series with two wins in as many starts. He comes into this race with back-to-back top 10s for the first time since April and the 12th-most points with the 750-package on non-road courses.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: While he finished 28th last year at New Hampshire, Bell had the 10th-fastest car on green-flag speed in the race based on loop data. This was a fruitful track for him in the Xfinity Series with two wins in as many starts. He comes into this race with back-to-back top 10s for the first time since April and the 12th-most points with the 750-package on non-road courses.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Matt DiBenedetto | View stats
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: After a tough spring-into-summer stretch of eight races where his best finish was 18th, DiBenedetto comes into this race with two straight top 10s with new crew chief Jonathan Hassler. He also has two straight top-six finishes at New Hampshire and is tied for the seventh-most points in that stretch.
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: After a tough spring-into-summer stretch of eight races where his best finish was 18th, DiBenedetto comes into this race with two straight top 10s with new crew chief Jonathan Hassler. He also has two straight top-six finishes at New Hampshire and is tied for the seventh-most points in that stretch.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: New Hampshire is a track that Elliott has not excelled at in his Cup career. He has just one top five and two top 10s in seven starts to go with an average finish of 16.0. On top of those numbers, I like Watkins Glen, the Indianapolis Road Course and Michigan much more as plays to make with him as we look to maximize our uses with the reigning champ.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: New Hampshire is a track that Elliott has not excelled at in his Cup career. He has just one top five and two top 10s in seven starts to go with an average finish of 16.0. On top of those numbers, I like Watkins Glen, the Indianapolis Road Course and Michigan much more as plays to make with him as we look to maximize our uses with the reigning champ.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's Atlanta winner has been on a hot streak with five top-eight finishes and back-to-back top fives in his last six races. The numbers suggest he will cool down at New Hampshire, where the last of his three wins there came in 2008 and he has just one top five in his last 18 starts there. He also has just one top 10 and the 17th-most points with the 750-package on non-road courses this year.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's Atlanta winner has been on a hot streak with five top-eight finishes and back-to-back top fives in his last six races. The numbers suggest he will cool down at New Hampshire, where the last of his three wins there came in 2008 and he has just one top five in his last 18 starts there. He also has just one top 10 and the 17th-most points with the 750-package on non-road courses this year.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane Forecast: That Almirola has the third-most points in the last three New Hampshire races and three top-11 finishes in a row at the "Magic Mile" is a tempting consideration. However, he has the 24th-most points with the 750-package and that includes three crash-induced one-point days. Maybe that's just bad luck, but it's the sort of juju I actively avoid in fantasy.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane Forecast: That Almirola has the third-most points in the last three New Hampshire races and three top-11 finishes in a row at the "Magic Mile" is a tempting consideration. However, he has the 24th-most points with the 750-package and that includes three crash-induced one-point days. Maybe that's just bad luck, but it's the sort of juju I actively avoid in fantasy.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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My lineup heading into the weekend: Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney; Garage: Kevin Harvick
Just missed the cut: Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson (saving final usage), William Byron (usage concerns), Brad Keselowski and Alex Bowman
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday’s race at 3 p.m. ET on NBCSN.
Download the free to play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.
Just missed the cut: Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson (saving final usage), William Byron (usage concerns), Brad Keselowski and Alex Bowman
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday’s race at 3 p.m. ET on NBCSN.
Download the free to play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.
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