Fantasy Fastlane: Double dip for Busch, Jones and how to navigate uses for the two races

Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. There will be NO pole pick for the races at Darlington Raceway. Odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook.


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Kevin Harvick | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 11-2

Fastlane forecast: Harvick enters Darlington as the top points getter for the 2020 season in Fantasy Live. In the last seven races at Darlington, Harvick has never finished outside the top 10 with a win, six top fives and the most points in that stretch. I expect Harvick and crew chief Rodney Childers to be factors right off the truck Sunday.

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 8-1

Fastlane forecast: Logano has two wins in the four races before the season went on hiatus. He also has three top-five finishes in his last five Darlington starts, and that gives him the sixth-most points in that stretch among the field. I used Logano a lot early so I am looking to hold off on him for now, but he's a solid play to make.

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 10-1

Fastlane forecast: Elliott has the third-most fantasy points, the most stage points this season and has led the most laps so far. He has led in three of four 2020 races, and the one he didn't provided his best finish so far. His Darlington numbers are pedestrian (two top 10s in five starts), but I put trust in the strong start to this season.

Kyle Busch | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota

Odds: 11-2

Fastlane forecast: Busch has finished outside the top 10 just twice in the last 10 Darlington races. He has one win at the 1.366-mile track. The two-time Cup Series champ is also tied for the most points over the last three races there among the field. Early season struggles on intermediates are little cause for concern.

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 13-2

Fastlane forecast: Darlington is Hamlin's best track on the Cup Series circuit on average finish (7.8), and he has finished outside the top 10 just three times in 14 starts. He has two wins at the 1.366-mile track. While the intermediate results in 2020 have been up and down, I'm inclined to have him in the lineup Sunday.

Kurt Busch | View stats

Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 22-1

Fastlane forecast: In 23 tries, Busch has never won at Darlington. The 2004 champ has been strong in recent years here with four top-seven finishes in his last five starts and the third-most points in the last three races among drivers in the field. He finished third at Auto Club Speedway in March -- a track that also wears down tires.

Brad Keselowski | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 9-1

Fastlane forecast: Keselowski looked to be finding a rhythm with new crew chief Jeremy Bullins during the West Coast swing with an average of 36.7 points over those races. He won at Darlington in 2018 and has four top-nine finishes in his last five starts here. I'd definitely have him in the lineup for one of the two races.

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet

Odds: 15-1

Fastlane forecast: Bowman’s Darlington record makes you pause, but his 2020 results -- the fourth-most fantasy points -- make you forget about that. He won at Auto Club – a track where his past stats were not much better and a track with high tire wear. Darlington is similar in that vein making him worth a weeknight play.

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 15-2

Fastlane forecast: Truex had been snake bit to start the 2020 season so he could be one of the drivers, along with crew chief James Small, to benefit most from the break. The speed has been there at times, but the results haven't. The 2017 champion has one Darlington win and the fourth-most points there in the last eight races among the field.

Jimmie Johnson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: Johnson's strong start to 2020 was particularly due to his performance on two intermediate tracks (average of 42 points). While Johnson has three wins at Darlington, he has not finished in the top 10 there since 2014. I'm inclined to throw him in the lineup for one race and see if the early season speed remains.

SLEEPER PICK: Erik Jones | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 14-1

Fastlane forecast: Calling the most recent Darlington winner a sleeper is a bit of a stretch, but Jones' 2020 stats put him here. At a track that is notoriously hard on young drivers, he has never finished outside the top eight in three Cup Series races and is tied for the most points over that stretch among the field.

SLEEPER PICK: Austin Dillon | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet

Odds: 100-1

Fastlane forecast: Darlington is statistically Dillon's best track with a 12.5 average finish in six starts. He has four top 12s in his Cup Series career and the eighth-most points in that stretch among the field for both races. This is a decent spot to try Dillon for a spot start -- especially in Wednesday's race.

SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 80-1

Fastlane forecast: Reddick is known to roll the top at high tire-wear tracks like Darlington. He showed some of that at Auto Club in March when he finished 11th there. He had two straight top-three finishes in Xfinity Series races at Darlington and was making big strides in Cup Series races before the stoppage.

SLEEPER PICK: Matt DiBenedetto | View stats

Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford

Odds: 40-1

Fastlane forecast: DiBenedetto has started strong in his new ride with the seventh-most fantasy points so far. Last season with Leavine Family Racing, he scored a top 10 at Darlington. He has also scored an average of 31 points in the two intermediate races this season. I like DiBenedetto as a nice value play at Darlington.

SLEEPER PICK: Chris Buescher | View stats

Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 80-1

Fastlane forecast: Buescher won't be a flashy play, but if you are looking for a garage play who will avoid trouble, he's solid. He has never finished worse than 17th in four Darlington starts and has two straight top-13 finishes. His teammate, Ryan Newman, has a better average finish, but this is Newman's first race back since Daytona.

STAY AWAY FROM: Matt Kenseth

Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet

Odds: 28-1

Fastlane forecast: This designation is about wanting to see a little from Kenseth before I plug him into the lineup. He hasn't raced with this rules package, and Darlington is a tough track to cut your teeth at after not running a Cup Series race since the end of the 2018 season. Charlotte Motor Speedway feels like a better spot to use him.

STAY AWAY FROM: Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 22-1

Fastlane forecast: Blaney got off to a speedy start before the stoppage. The speed was there at Auto Club and Las Vegas Motor Speedway -- the two intermediates run so far. His Darlington numbers are far from stellar -- 20.4 average finish and no finish better than 13th in five starts here. I'm going to watch how he fares Sunday before deciding on Wednesday.

STAY AWAY FROM: Aric Almirola | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford

Odds: 50-1

Fastlane forecast: Almirola has yet to record a top 10 at Darlington in eight starts and has just two top 15s in that stretch. Given his inconsistencies so far on the intermediate tracks (21st at Las Vegas; 8th at Auto Club), I'm inclined to roll the dice on someone with more upside like DiBenedetto or Jones.

My overall strategy is going to be to use the bigger plays for the longer race Sunday and to take a few more chances in the shorter race Wednesday.



My planned lineup heading into the Sunday Darlington race: Kevin Harvick, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Erik Jones, Kurt Busch; Garage: Denny Hamlin.




My planned lineup heading into the Wednesday night Darlington race: Martin Truex Jr., Alex Bowman, Erik Jones, Kurt Busch, Matt DiBenedetto; Garage: Jimmie Johnson.

Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday’s race at 3:30 p.m. on FOX and Wednesday’s race at 7:30 p.m. on FS1.