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Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Elliott, Truex and who else for Daytona road race?
By RJ Kraft | Friday, February 19, 2021
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane, presented by Jackpot Races, will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
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PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 2-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott has won the last four road-course races and five of the last seven -- both of those stretches include his win at this 14-turn, 3.61-mile layout last August. Is there a reason not to play Elliott? He's a strong option nearly everywhere and likely to be heavily owned. However, given his success here and on Roval-type layouts, I'm using him.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 2-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott has won the last four road-course races and five of the last seven -- both of those stretches include his win at this 14-turn, 3.61-mile layout last August. Is there a reason not to play Elliott? He's a strong option nearly everywhere and likely to be heavily owned. However, given his success here and on Roval-type layouts, I'm using him.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: If not for Elliott, Truex might be considered the best active road-course driver on the circuit. He finished third at this track last year, has the fourth-most points over the last three road-course races and is the only driver to score five top 10s in the last five road races. He has four wins on road courses and was the car to beat in the Busch Clash before a wreck.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: If not for Elliott, Truex might be considered the best active road-course driver on the circuit. He finished third at this track last year, has the fourth-most points over the last three road-course races and is the only driver to score five top 10s in the last five road races. He has four wins on road courses and was the car to beat in the Busch Clash before a wreck.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Coming off his denied bid at three Daytona 500 wins in a row, Hamlin will now take aim at a layout where he finished as the runner-up to Elliott last year. Hamlin's overall road-course body of work is a bit spotty. My use of him in the Daytona 500 has me saving him, but with a good starting spot and a solid run here last year, I understand playing him.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Coming off his denied bid at three Daytona 500 wins in a row, Hamlin will now take aim at a layout where he finished as the runner-up to Elliott last year. Hamlin's overall road-course body of work is a bit spotty. My use of him in the Daytona 500 has me saving him, but with a good starting spot and a solid run here last year, I understand playing him.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano was a lap away from being a two-time Daytona 500 champ and will look to rebound in a style of racing in which he has improved. He finished ninth at this track last year and tied for the sixth-most points (37). In the last three races at Roval-style road courses, "Sliced Bread" has the third-most points among drivers in Sunday's race.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano was a lap away from being a two-time Daytona 500 champ and will look to rebound in a style of racing in which he has improved. He finished ninth at this track last year and tied for the sixth-most points (37). In the last three races at Roval-style road courses, "Sliced Bread" has the third-most points among drivers in Sunday's race.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney finished 31st in this race in 2020 but nearly won the Busch Clash last week. So which result is more likely to occur Sunday? I'd go with the latter. Blaney's four top 10s in his last five road races are tied for second in that span. He also won the 2018 race at the Charlotte Roval -- the only non-Elliott/Truex road-course win in the last three years.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney finished 31st in this race in 2020 but nearly won the Busch Clash last week. So which result is more likely to occur Sunday? I'd go with the latter. Blaney's four top 10s in his last five road races are tied for second in that span. He also won the 2018 race at the Charlotte Roval -- the only non-Elliott/Truex road-course win in the last three years.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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AJ Allmendinger | View stats
Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Hello, old friend. Allmendinger is making a spot start for Kaulig as it runs a partial Cup slate in 2021. His lone Cup win came at Watkins Glen, he has four wins in the Xfinity Series on road courses and finished fourth in the Xfinity race here last year. He is a great option to help slow play some bigger names. Kaulig is planning to run most, if not all, the road courses in 2021, and it's hard to imagine 'Dinger won't make a few of those starts.
Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Hello, old friend. Allmendinger is making a spot start for Kaulig as it runs a partial Cup slate in 2021. His lone Cup win came at Watkins Glen, he has four wins in the Xfinity Series on road courses and finished fourth in the Xfinity race here last year. He is a great option to help slow play some bigger names. Kaulig is planning to run most, if not all, the road courses in 2021, and it's hard to imagine 'Dinger won't make a few of those starts.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: In the last three road-course races, Byron has the second-most points -- an average of 41 points per race. He's one of four drivers -- Elliott, Truex and Logano are the others -- to nab top 10s in all of those races. He has also led 50 laps in that span -- second only to Elliott. The starting spot is a cause for pause, but the stats back the play.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: In the last three road-course races, Byron has the second-most points -- an average of 41 points per race. He's one of four drivers -- Elliott, Truex and Logano are the others -- to nab top 10s in all of those races. He has also led 50 laps in that span -- second only to Elliott. The starting spot is a cause for pause, but the stats back the play.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: He has been out of a Cup car for nearly a year, so it's easy to forget Larson has made strides as a road racer. In four of his last five road races, Larson has scored at least 33 points -- in the one race he didn't, he led 47 laps before a late-race accident in 2018 at the Charlotte Roval. He's a sneaky play, but remember he hasn't run this track in a Cup car.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: He has been out of a Cup car for nearly a year, so it's easy to forget Larson has made strides as a road racer. In four of his last five road races, Larson has scored at least 33 points -- in the one race he didn't, he led 47 laps before a late-race accident in 2018 at the Charlotte Roval. He's a sneaky play, but remember he hasn't run this track in a Cup car.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Michael McDowell | View stats
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2021 Daytona 500 winner could be a trendy play this weekend and with good reason. He is a solid road racer and nabbed a top-10 finish at the Daytona Road Course last summer. His Rolex 24 experience also gives him some additional course knowledge that could prove beneficial.
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2021 Daytona 500 winner could be a trendy play this weekend and with good reason. He is a solid road racer and nabbed a top-10 finish at the Daytona Road Course last summer. His Rolex 24 experience also gives him some additional course knowledge that could prove beneficial.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Chase Briscoe | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: The rookie is an intriguing consideration given his road-course success in the Xfinity ranks. He has two wins in 10 Xfinity road starts -- including victories on Roval-like courses at Charlotte and Indianapolis. This will be just his second Cup start.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: The rookie is an intriguing consideration given his road-course success in the Xfinity ranks. He has two wins in 10 Xfinity road starts -- including victories on Roval-like courses at Charlotte and Indianapolis. This will be just his second Cup start.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Chris Buescher | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 125-1
Fastlane forecast: Buescher finished fifth at the Daytona Road Course last August -- the highest finisher among drivers who wound up not making the playoffs. He eschewed stage points in the race but still nabbed a solid 32 points. One thing to remember: It's his only road course top 10 in Cup.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 125-1
Fastlane forecast: Buescher finished fifth at the Daytona Road Course last August -- the highest finisher among drivers who wound up not making the playoffs. He eschewed stage points in the race but still nabbed a solid 32 points. One thing to remember: It's his only road course top 10 in Cup.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Erik Jones | View stats
Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones was an under-the-radar road racer at Gibbs with five top 10s in eight starts as well as an 11th-place finish at this track last year. In his last five road starts, he produced the 11th-most points. Two facts to be wary of, though: a 37th-place starting spot and RPM is not JGR.
Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones was an under-the-radar road racer at Gibbs with five top 10s in eight starts as well as an 11th-place finish at this track last year. In his last five road starts, he produced the 11th-most points. Two facts to be wary of, though: a 37th-place starting spot and RPM is not JGR.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch was the winner of the Busch Clash on this layout, but his Roval numbers are not good. In his last three road races -- all at Charlotte or Daytona -- he has an average finish of 34.7. His nine points are the 34th most in that stretch. While he should improve on that, the recent road-course trends and his strength elsewhere make me stay away.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch was the winner of the Busch Clash on this layout, but his Roval numbers are not good. In his last three road races -- all at Charlotte or Daytona -- he has an average finish of 34.7. His nine points are the 34th most in that stretch. While he should improve on that, the recent road-course trends and his strength elsewhere make me stay away.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Bubba Wallace | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: In eight road-course starts, Wallace has no top 10s, an average finish of 26.8 and a best finish of 21st. I'm taking a wait-and-see approach on Bubba away from superspeedways, but in the case of road courses, I need to see a few top 15s before considering the play.
23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: In eight road-course starts, Wallace has no top 10s, an average finish of 26.8 and a best finish of 21st. I'm taking a wait-and-see approach on Bubba away from superspeedways, but in the case of road courses, I need to see a few top 15s before considering the play.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon enters the second race of the season as the points leader. Color me extremely surprised if that remains the case leaving the Daytona Road Course. In 15 road starts, he has no top 10s, an average finish of 24.1, no finish better than 16th and missed this race in 2020.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon enters the second race of the season as the points leader. Color me extremely surprised if that remains the case leaving the Daytona Road Course. In 15 road starts, he has no top 10s, an average finish of 24.1, no finish better than 16th and missed this race in 2020.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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My lineup heading into the weekend: Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, AJ Allmendinger, Michael McDowell; Garage: Martin Truex Jr.
Just missed the cut: William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on FOX.
Just missed the cut: William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on FOX.
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