Fantasy Fastlane: Denny Hamlin looking for a trifecta at Bristol

The two races at Bristol Motor Speedway in 2024 couldn’t have been more different. The spring race featured a track record 54 lead changes, while Kyle Larson dominated the playoff contest, leading 462 of 500 laps. The one constant variable was that Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports were elite, combining to win nine of the last 13 races in “Thunder Valley.” Five drivers cracked the top 10 in the finishing order in both of last year’s Bristol races, all of which compete for the two powerhouse organizations.

New to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can play along. It’s a season-long points battle introduced last year in which strategy is the primary emphasis. With 36 chartered cars and 36 races on the 2025 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.

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MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 9-2 (DraftKings)

Hamlin is on a roll, and he’s been money at Bristol in recent seasons. He enters this weekend having won consecutive races for the first time since 2012, and realistically has a shot at becoming the second JGR driver to have a three-race winning streak in as many months to begin the 2025 season. Hamlin has won three of the last eight races here, with five straight top 10s.

MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 9-2 (DraftKings)

Whenever Larson has a puddling race, he typically has a strong bounce-back weekend. His determination level will be high after wrecking on Lap 4 at Darlington Raceway last weekend. The last time the Cup Series took to the Bristol high banks, Larson set a scorching pace, with a 1.1 average running position over 500 laps, according to Racing Insights. His 462 laps out front were the most ever for a Hendrick car in a single race.

MUST START:

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 13-2 (DraftKings)

By using all these big-name drivers, I feel like I’m using all my bullets in the chamber for Bristol. But like Hamlin and Larson, Bell (and Chase Elliott) have finished in the top 10 in all four Next Gen races on the Bristol concrete. In two of the last four races, the No. 20 car has led at least 143 laps. All three of Bell’s top fives at Bristol have come in the Next Gen era.

MUST START:

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 9-1 (DraftKings)

With how consistent Elliott has been at Bristol – an average finish of 11.0 in 15 starts – it’s surprising that he’s yet to win at the historic venue (excluding the 2020 All-Star Race). He does have runner-up finishes in two of the last four races here, including the series’ most recent trip last September. The No. 9 team has eight top-10 finishes in a row at short tracks.

SLEEPER PICK:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 20-1 (DraftKings)

Recording five top-10 finishes in the opening eight races of the 2025 season, Buescher is in a seven-way tie for most top 10s thus far. Consistency is always key for the former Bristol winner, and he’s not hesitant in mentioning that the half-mile bullring is among his favorite tracks on the schedule. Buescher scored a win here in 2022 and has three top-10 finishes in the last four races. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Ty Gibbs | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 54 Toyota

Odds: 22-1 (DraftKings)

It took eight races, but Gibbs broke through with his first top 10 of the season last weekend at Darlington. The addition last week of longtime car chief Robert “Cheddar” Smith is a valuable acquisition for a young No. 54 team, led by first-year Cup crew chief Tyler Allen. Gibbs has done an admirable job at Bristol in limited starts, leading over 100 laps in half of his four starts.

SLEEPER PICK:

Ryan Preece | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 60 Ford

Odds: 20-1 (DraftKings)

Last week’s 26th-place finish for Preece doesn’t tell the grand story of how fast the No. 60 car was at Darlington. He started second and finished third in the opening stage before a mid-race caution cost him valuable track position. Preece cut his teeth on short tracks and finished seventh here last fall.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 16-1 (DraftKings)

With a laughable 22 national touring series wins at Bristol, Busch is undoubtedly on the Mount Rushmore of competitors to ever circle the “World’s Fastest Half-Mile.” The two-time Cup champion is in an extended slump at arguably his best track, though, with five consecutive finishes of 20th or worse. Aside from Austin Dillon’s win at Richmond Raceway last summer, RCR has largely struggled on short tracks in recent memory. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 22-1 (DraftKings)

Since entering the Cup Series full time in 2020, Bristol has been one of the few tracks that Reddick has yet to get a grasp on, with a grand total of two lead-lap finishes. Despite leading laps in both races – albeit seven total – last year, he had an average finish of 25th at the track. Short tracks aren’t Reddick’s specialty.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 28-1 (DraftKings)

To be candid, you could group the Trackhouse pairing of Chastain or Daniel Suárez here. Let’s focus on the No. 1 team, however, as Chastain has an average finish south of 13th at the track in four starts with Trackhouse. By most standards, that’s tolerable, but it’s also a small sample size. Add in the fact that Suárez has never finished better than 18th in five Bristol starts in the No. 99 car and it’s clear that it’s a venue that Trackhouse hasn’t been at its best.  

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Denny Hamlin vs. Kyle Larson

Ugh, you know this had to be a matchup. The two friendly rivals each won at Bristol last year and are frequently pacing the field here. Despite winning five of the first eight races this year, the strength of Joe Gibbs Racing remains on shorter tracks. Bell dominated at Phoenix Raceway and Hamlin crushed the field at Martinsville. Larson is next level at Bristol, too, leading at least 175 laps in four of the last 11 races. In four Next Gen races, Larson has a stout average finish of 3.25, so I’ll take him to rebound from a disappointing Darlington

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Chris Buescher vs. Chase Elliott

This is another intriguing matchup. Buescher is the one who visited Victory Lane at “Thunder Valley” in a points-paying race, but Elliott is always a threat with an average finish below 5.0 in the Next Gen era here. Elliott is a tremendous short-track competitor, so I’ll go with the law of averages in the No. 9 car

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Alex Bowman vs. Brad Keselowski

For the first time all season, Keselowski showed speed last weekend at Darlington, one of his better tracks on the schedule. Bristol lines up nicely with him, as well, with three victories here. Bowman showed out at Bristol in 2024, being among the five drivers to have top 10s in both races. Per usual, Bowman has flown under the radar, but I’ll bank on a top 10 this weekend as he has three in the last five Bristol races.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ryan Blaney vs. Chase Briscoe

Each driver has better tracks on the schedule, though Blaney has paced the field for 507 laps in 16 Bristol starts. Briscoe wheeled his car last fall to an eighth-place finish, advancing to the Round of 12 in the postseason. But his No. 19 team has been largely mediocre in recent Bristol races, with Martin Truex Jr. scoring only a pair of top 10s in nine starts with JGR. Penske hasn’t ruled Bristol since 2020 with Keselowski, but I’ll take Blaney here. 

MY LINEUP: Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, Chris Buescher

GARAGE: Ty Gibbs

36 for 36: With my Briscoe pick at Darlington, I keep burying myself in points. The other three Joe Gibbs Racing cars strung together top 10s, while the No. 19 team couldn’t get a handle on its race car and earned me a whopping nine points. I’ll have Ty Gibbs as my pick entering the weekend, as it’s among his best tracks on the schedule, winning both stages of the Bristol spring race last season. This is a risky pick, as the No. 54 team is coming off its first top 10 since Kansas Speedway last fall (14 races ago).