X
Fantasy Fastlane: Double down on Truex, play studs’ final uses at Dover
By RJ Kraft | Friday, August 21, 2020
NASCAR Digital Media
1 of 19
View Fullscreen
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from Penn National Gaming.
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
2 of 19
View Fullscreen
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: In his last four races at Dover, Harvick has averaged a whopping 51 points per race – the best mark in the series – and an average finish of 3.8. He has two wins at the track in the last five years. The question as always is uses: At one left, I’d use him in the first race, but he's the driver I'm pulling out first if I don't like the points and then plugging him back in for the second race. At two or more, turn him loose for both.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: In his last four races at Dover, Harvick has averaged a whopping 51 points per race – the best mark in the series – and an average finish of 3.8. He has two wins at the track in the last five years. The question as always is uses: At one left, I’d use him in the first race, but he's the driver I'm pulling out first if I don't like the points and then plugging him back in for the second race. At two or more, turn him loose for both.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
3 of 19
View Fullscreen
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 15-2
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's runner-up finisher will start on the front row for Saturday's race. He has three top-seven finishes at Dover in his last four starts and the fourth-most points in this weekend's field over that stretch. His last five races in 2020 have included a win and three runner-up finishes. At one use left, lock and load him for Saturday.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 15-2
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's runner-up finisher will start on the front row for Saturday's race. He has three top-seven finishes at Dover in his last four starts and the fourth-most points in this weekend's field over that stretch. His last five races in 2020 have included a win and three runner-up finishes. At one use left, lock and load him for Saturday.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
4 of 19
View Fullscreen
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 7-2
Fastlane forecast: Truex has three wins at Dover – one of his many home tracks. He also has finished outside the top four just once in the last seven races there and has the second-most points scored over the last four races. He also has five straight third-place finishes in 2020. MTJ is going to be in my lineup for both races this weekend.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 7-2
Fastlane forecast: Truex has three wins at Dover – one of his many home tracks. He also has finished outside the top four just once in the last seven races there and has the second-most points scored over the last four races. He also has five straight third-place finishes in 2020. MTJ is going to be in my lineup for both races this weekend.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
5 of 19
View Fullscreen
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 11-2
Fastlane forecast: Elliott's 8.6 average finish at Dover is the best among this weekend's field. Six of his eight starts at Dover have resulted in top-five finishes. He is also coming off a win at the Daytona Road Course and has the fourth-most points this season with the short-track package – an average of 36 per race. He's a must for one race; both if you have the uses.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 11-2
Fastlane forecast: Elliott's 8.6 average finish at Dover is the best among this weekend's field. Six of his eight starts at Dover have resulted in top-five finishes. He is also coming off a win at the Daytona Road Course and has the fourth-most points this season with the short-track package – an average of 36 per race. He's a must for one race; both if you have the uses.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
6 of 19
View Fullscreen
Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has two wins in 2020 with the short-track rules package (Bristol and New Hampshire) and is tied for the most earned in those races – 44 points per race. While he has the third-most points at Dover in the last four races among this weekend’s field, he has just one top 10 in that stretch. I have one use left, so he'll be in this weekend, but I'm leaning toward saving him for Sunday.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has two wins in 2020 with the short-track rules package (Bristol and New Hampshire) and is tied for the most earned in those races – 44 points per race. While he has the third-most points at Dover in the last four races among this weekend’s field, he has just one top 10 in that stretch. I have one use left, so he'll be in this weekend, but I'm leaning toward saving him for Sunday.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
7 of 19
View Fullscreen
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano comes into this race with five top 10s in his last six races in 2020 with four races of at least 35 points in that stretch. He is tied with Keselowski for the most points with the short-track rules package. The 2018 champ's numbers at Dover are a mixed bag – four top fives, 12 top 10s in 22 starts – but he'll have a solid Saturday starting spot to nab some stage points.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano comes into this race with five top 10s in his last six races in 2020 with four races of at least 35 points in that stretch. He is tied with Keselowski for the most points with the short-track rules package. The 2018 champ's numbers at Dover are a mixed bag – four top fives, 12 top 10s in 22 starts – but he'll have a solid Saturday starting spot to nab some stage points.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
8 of 19
View Fullscreen
Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 33-1
Fastlane forecast: Admittedly, the No. 1 team's strategy at the Daytona Road Course was a bit perplexing, but Busch still had a OK points day. His overall numbers at Dover are so-so – one win, nine top fives, 12 top 10s – but he does have the fifth-most points among the field in the last four races here. He also has the 10th-most points with this rules package in 2020.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 33-1
Fastlane forecast: Admittedly, the No. 1 team's strategy at the Daytona Road Course was a bit perplexing, but Busch still had a OK points day. His overall numbers at Dover are so-so – one win, nine top fives, 12 top 10s – but he does have the fifth-most points among the field in the last four races here. He also has the 10th-most points with this rules package in 2020.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
9 of 19
View Fullscreen
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has three Cup wins at Dover, but good luck figuring out which version of the Gibbs driver you'll see this weekend. Is it the one who finished fourth at Texas and Michigan-2 or the one who scored just one point in both the New Hampshire and Daytona Road Course races? I have options I like better for Race 1 at Dover, but I'll consider him for Race 2.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has three Cup wins at Dover, but good luck figuring out which version of the Gibbs driver you'll see this weekend. Is it the one who finished fourth at Texas and Michigan-2 or the one who scored just one point in both the New Hampshire and Daytona Road Course races? I have options I like better for Race 1 at Dover, but I'll consider him for Race 2.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
10 of 19
View Fullscreen
Jimmie Johnson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: An 11-time winner at Dover should be a no-brainer, right? Recent Dover results make that choice a little less clear cut, but his 2020 short-track package stats favor a play. "Seven-Time" has the sixth-most points with those rules – an average of 32.5 – and that came in races where he started no better than 20th. On Saturday, he'll line up in the top six at one of his best tracks.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: An 11-time winner at Dover should be a no-brainer, right? Recent Dover results make that choice a little less clear cut, but his 2020 short-track package stats favor a play. "Seven-Time" has the sixth-most points with those rules – an average of 32.5 – and that came in races where he started no better than 20th. On Saturday, he'll line up in the top six at one of his best tracks.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
11 of 19
View Fullscreen
Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman is one of three drivers in this weekend's field who scored top fives in both Dover races last year – Truex and Harvick were the others so that's pretty heady company. The concern is his lack of consistency over the last two-plus months with no top fives, two top 10s and the 21st-most points in the series in that stretch.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman is one of three drivers in this weekend's field who scored top fives in both Dover races last year – Truex and Harvick were the others so that's pretty heady company. The concern is his lack of consistency over the last two-plus months with no top fives, two top 10s and the 21st-most points in the series in that stretch.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
12 of 19
View Fullscreen
SLEEPER PICK: Clint Bowyer | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Fresh off a great points day at Daytona Road Course, Bowyer comes to one of the better tracks for him in his SHR tenure. He has four top 10s in his last five Dover starts. The veteran also has the fifth-most points with this rules package in 2020 – an average of 33 points per race. Given his points position and starting spot, he should be all in on chasing stage points once again.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Fresh off a great points day at Daytona Road Course, Bowyer comes to one of the better tracks for him in his SHR tenure. He has four top 10s in his last five Dover starts. The veteran also has the fifth-most points with this rules package in 2020 – an average of 33 points per race. Given his points position and starting spot, he should be all in on chasing stage points once again.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
13 of 19
View Fullscreen
SLEEPER PICK: Christopher Bell | View stats
Leavine Family Racing, No. 95 Toyota
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Admittedly, this is a play I like a bit more for Sunday with the top-20 invert provided Bell finishes in the 11th-20th range Saturday. He showed in the second Michigan race what he can do with track position, and he has had more national series success at Dover with two Xfinity Series wins in four starts.
Leavine Family Racing, No. 95 Toyota
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Admittedly, this is a play I like a bit more for Sunday with the top-20 invert provided Bell finishes in the 11th-20th range Saturday. He showed in the second Michigan race what he can do with track position, and he has had more national series success at Dover with two Xfinity Series wins in four starts.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
14 of 19
View Fullscreen
SLEEPER PICK: William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 33-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron is holding the last provisional spot in the playoffs, so he and crew chief Chad Knaus will be on the hunt for a strong points day. The short-track rules package has seen some of Byron’s better results with three top 10s, the eighth-most points and an average of 31.5 points in those races. He averaged 32.5 points at Dover in last year's races.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 33-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron is holding the last provisional spot in the playoffs, so he and crew chief Chad Knaus will be on the hunt for a strong points day. The short-track rules package has seen some of Byron’s better results with three top 10s, the eighth-most points and an average of 31.5 points in those races. He averaged 32.5 points at Dover in last year's races.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
15 of 19
View Fullscreen
SLEEPER PICK: Matt DiBenedetto | View stats
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: DiBenedetto is currently on the right side of the cut line and needs good points days to stay there. He has the 11th-most points with the short-track rules package this year and top 10s in the last two races it was used at. He also scored a top-10 finish last fall at Dover after nine straight finishes outside the top 15.
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: DiBenedetto is currently on the right side of the cut line and needs good points days to stay there. He has the 11th-most points with the short-track rules package this year and top 10s in the last two races it was used at. He also scored a top-10 finish last fall at Dover after nine straight finishes outside the top 15.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
16 of 19
View Fullscreen
STAY AWAY FROM: Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: A couple flags for this weekend. He enters with four finishes of 20th-or-worse in his last five 2020 races. He has a 21.2 average finish at Dover – his third-worst among tracks with at least two starts. And last but not least, he has the 18th-most points with this rules package – Michael McDowell and Ryan Preece have scored more points. He’s a flat avoid for me in Race 1.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: A couple flags for this weekend. He enters with four finishes of 20th-or-worse in his last five 2020 races. He has a 21.2 average finish at Dover – his third-worst among tracks with at least two starts. And last but not least, he has the 18th-most points with this rules package – Michael McDowell and Ryan Preece have scored more points. He’s a flat avoid for me in Race 1.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
17 of 19
View Fullscreen
STAY AWAY FROM: Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: With two finishes outside the top 15 after nine straight top 10s, some of the shine has worn off of Almirola. He has no top 10s in his last seven Dover races and has the 13th-most points with this rules package in 2020. His big stage point results from earlier in the summer were predicated on strong track position to start, which he will not have in the first race.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: With two finishes outside the top 15 after nine straight top 10s, some of the shine has worn off of Almirola. He has no top 10s in his last seven Dover races and has the 13th-most points with this rules package in 2020. His big stage point results from earlier in the summer were predicated on strong track position to start, which he will not have in the first race.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
18 of 19
View Fullscreen
STAY AWAY FROM: Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick comes into this race with three straight finishes of 18th or worse. His Dover numbers in the Xfinity ranks were just OK, and he has scored the 24th-most points with the short-track package in 2020. And with how far he has moved off the cut line, he needs much more than a really good points day.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick comes into this race with three straight finishes of 18th or worse. His Dover numbers in the Xfinity ranks were just OK, and he has scored the 24th-most points with the short-track package in 2020. And with how far he has moved off the cut line, he needs much more than a really good points day.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
19 of 19
View Fullscreen
My lineup heading into the weekend: Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Jimmie Johnson; Garage: Kevin Harvick.
We'll look at how the first Dover race goes before determining a lineup for Race 2. That said, I'm looking at using Truex again, using my final Brad Keselowski use and likely plugging in the rest from some combo of Logano, Johnson, Kyle Busch, William Byron, Alex Bowman, Christopher Bell, Kurt Busch and Clint Bowyer to fill several spots. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Saturday’s race at 4 p.m. ET and Sunday’s race at 4 p.m. with coverage for both on NBCSN.
We'll look at how the first Dover race goes before determining a lineup for Race 2. That said, I'm looking at using Truex again, using my final Brad Keselowski use and likely plugging in the rest from some combo of Logano, Johnson, Kyle Busch, William Byron, Alex Bowman, Christopher Bell, Kurt Busch and Clint Bowyer to fill several spots. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Saturday’s race at 4 p.m. ET and Sunday’s race at 4 p.m. with coverage for both on NBCSN.
Presented By: