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Fantasy Fastlane: Elliott, Truex top the road ready list for Daytona
By RJ Kraft | Published: August 14, 2020 19
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from Penn National Gaming.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick's sweep of Michigan gives him six wins on the season and helps lock him into the top spot in the starting lineup for Sunday's race. It should come as no surprise Harvick is solid on road courses with the fourth-most points on that track type in the last two years. So what to do with uses? At one, I'm saving for Dover. At two, I'd be inclined to throw him in for this one.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick's sweep of Michigan gives him six wins on the season and helps lock him into the top spot in the starting lineup for Sunday's race. It should come as no surprise Harvick is solid on road courses with the fourth-most points on that track type in the last two years. So what to do with uses? At one, I'm saving for Dover. At two, I'd be inclined to throw him in for this one.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin's strong finishes continue to come in bunches as his runner-up at Michigan marks his third top-two finish in the last four races. His overall road record isn't eye-popping – one win – but he does have the third-most points in the last two years on road courses. Again, it's a usage question. At one, I’m saving for Dover. At two, I'm inclined to take his high starting spot out for a drive.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin's strong finishes continue to come in bunches as his runner-up at Michigan marks his third top-two finish in the last four races. His overall road record isn't eye-popping – one win – but he does have the third-most points in the last two years on road courses. Again, it's a usage question. At one, I’m saving for Dover. At two, I'm inclined to take his high starting spot out for a drive.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex enters on a roll with four straight third-place finishes and five top-three finishes in the last six races. He has four wins on road courses. In the last six road races, he has two wins (both at Sonoma), two runner-up finishes (both at Watkins Glen) and nearly won the first Charlotte Roval race before contact with Jimmie Johnson turned him around.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex enters on a roll with four straight third-place finishes and five top-three finishes in the last six races. He has four wins on road courses. In the last six road races, he has two wins (both at Sonoma), two runner-up finishes (both at Watkins Glen) and nearly won the first Charlotte Roval race before contact with Jimmie Johnson turned him around.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 15-4
Fastlane forecast: Elliott has won three of the last five road races with two wins at Watkins Glen and one on the Charlotte Roval. His average of 47 points in both Charlotte Roval races offer a lot of promise with that being the closest comparison we have to the Daytona layout. This is one of two drivers I will be building my lineup around.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 15-4
Fastlane forecast: Elliott has won three of the last five road races with two wins at Watkins Glen and one on the Charlotte Roval. His average of 47 points in both Charlotte Roval races offer a lot of promise with that being the closest comparison we have to the Daytona layout. This is one of two drivers I will be building my lineup around.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has the most recent run on this layout from his 2020 Rolex 24 experience. The two-time Cup champ has four wins on road courses, but his results on the Charlotte Roval have been two finishes outside the top 30. That said, I have uses available and think his recent Rolex experience gives him a slight edge on the twists and turns here.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has the most recent run on this layout from his 2020 Rolex 24 experience. The two-time Cup champ has four wins on road courses, but his results on the Charlotte Roval have been two finishes outside the top 30. That said, I have uses available and think his recent Rolex experience gives him a slight edge on the twists and turns here.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2018 Charlotte Roval winner has the sixth-most points (among Sunday's field) on road courses over the past two years with an average of 31.7 – with a run of four straight top-eight finishes. Blaney holds the lead in stage points for the season, and I expect he’ll be looking to gobble up some more with playoff points at stake for his position in the standings.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2018 Charlotte Roval winner has the sixth-most points (among Sunday's field) on road courses over the past two years with an average of 31.7 – with a run of four straight top-eight finishes. Blaney holds the lead in stage points for the season, and I expect he’ll be looking to gobble up some more with playoff points at stake for his position in the standings.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: The elder Busch is a solid road racer with a little more than half of his starts resulting in top-10 finishes. He also has two Rolex 24 starts at this venue. His average at the Charlotte Roval is 33 points per race – again our best comparison - with a 49-point, fifth-place effort in 2018 as his best result in the last six road races. The 2004 champ enters this race with five top 10s in the past six races.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: The elder Busch is a solid road racer with a little more than half of his starts resulting in top-10 finishes. He also has two Rolex 24 starts at this venue. His average at the Charlotte Roval is 33 points per race – again our best comparison - with a 49-point, fifth-place effort in 2018 as his best result in the last six road races. The 2004 champ enters this race with five top 10s in the past six races.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Clint Bowyer | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer has been a solid road racer throughout his NASCAR career. He has the fifth-most points in the last two years on road courses – an average of 34.5 points. He has also one of two drivers to score top fives at the Charlotte Roval – our closest point of comparison for this track. He also has run this layout once in the 2013 Rolex 24.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer has been a solid road racer throughout his NASCAR career. He has the fifth-most points in the last two years on road courses – an average of 34.5 points. He has also one of two drivers to score top fives at the Charlotte Roval – our closest point of comparison for this track. He also has run this layout once in the 2013 Rolex 24.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Jimmie Johnson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Johnson comes into this race on the outside looking in of the playoff picture. He has a wealth of experience on this layout with seven appearances in the Rolex 24. Johnson has not scored more than 30 points in a race since Talladega (nine races ago), but he has an average of 31 points in the last two years on road courses and remember he nearly won the first race at the Charlotte Roval.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Johnson comes into this race on the outside looking in of the playoff picture. He has a wealth of experience on this layout with seven appearances in the Rolex 24. Johnson has not scored more than 30 points in a race since Talladega (nine races ago), but he has an average of 31 points in the last two years on road courses and remember he nearly won the first race at the Charlotte Roval.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Looking for a sneaky play to make at the Daytona Road Course? Here's your guy. Bowman is one of two drivers to score top fives in both Charlotte Roval races – our closest comparison point. The concern? A recent cold run of one 30-plus point race in the last nine races.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Looking for a sneaky play to make at the Daytona Road Course? Here's your guy. Bowman is one of two drivers to score top fives in both Charlotte Roval races – our closest comparison point. The concern? A recent cold run of one 30-plus point race in the last nine races.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Recent road-course races have tended to bring out strategies designed to maximize the points day for a driver flirting with the cutline. Byron and crew chief Chad Knaus have done just that in two of the last three road races – peaking with a 41-point effort at last year's Charlotte Roval. The third-year driver is in the provisional final spot – a strong points effort would do wonders for him.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Recent road-course races have tended to bring out strategies designed to maximize the points day for a driver flirting with the cutline. Byron and crew chief Chad Knaus have done just that in two of the last three road races – peaking with a 41-point effort at last year's Charlotte Roval. The third-year driver is in the provisional final spot – a strong points effort would do wonders for him.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Matt DiBenedetto | View stats
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: In the three road-course races last year, DiBenedetto averaged 30 points and scored the ninth-most points among drivers in Sunday's race. Given his position in the standings, it's reasonable to expect Matty D to chase a strong points day to improve his playoff positioning. He enters this race with two top-seven finishes in his last three races.
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: In the three road-course races last year, DiBenedetto averaged 30 points and scored the ninth-most points among drivers in Sunday's race. Given his position in the standings, it's reasonable to expect Matty D to chase a strong points day to improve his playoff positioning. He enters this race with two top-seven finishes in his last three races.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Michael McDowell | View stats
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 125-1
Fastlane forecast: Say hello to the driver with the most experience on the Daytona Road Course layout in Sunday's field. McDowell has also averaged 24.5 points in two races at the Charlotte Roval – with a 12th-place run last year. In the last two years, he has totaled only three points less than Joey Logano on road courses.
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 125-1
Fastlane forecast: Say hello to the driver with the most experience on the Daytona Road Course layout in Sunday's field. McDowell has also averaged 24.5 points in two races at the Charlotte Roval – with a 12th-place run last year. In the last two years, he has totaled only three points less than Joey Logano on road courses.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Chris Buescher | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 150-1
Fastlane forecast: Buescher is a solid road racer whose 15.7 average finish on road courses last year is 14th-best among drivers in Sunday’s field. While that only yielded an average of 23 points per race, that’s a won't-hurt-you total to have in your garage as opposed to the boom-or-bust potential of, say, Erik Jones – five top 10s on road courses; two finishes outside the top 25 at the Charlotte Roval.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 150-1
Fastlane forecast: Buescher is a solid road racer whose 15.7 average finish on road courses last year is 14th-best among drivers in Sunday’s field. While that only yielded an average of 23 points per race, that’s a won't-hurt-you total to have in your garage as opposed to the boom-or-bust potential of, say, Erik Jones – five top 10s on road courses; two finishes outside the top 25 at the Charlotte Roval.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski scored a top-five finish last year at the Charlotte Roval, but his non-Watkins Glen road-course record has not been good. Add in the fact Daytona is his worst track on the circuit, this seems like a combo to best avoid. I'm holding my remaining use for Dover.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski scored a top-five finish last year at the Charlotte Roval, but his non-Watkins Glen road-course record has not been good. Add in the fact Daytona is his worst track on the circuit, this seems like a combo to best avoid. I'm holding my remaining use for Dover.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 45-1
Fastlane forecast: With 10 top 10s in 11 races and just one of those races with less than 30 points, recency bias makes it hard to sit Almirola. However, consider his road-course resume at the Cup level – 19 starts, no top fives, two top 10s (both at Sonoma). Those numbers tell a story, and it says avoid him.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 45-1
Fastlane forecast: With 10 top 10s in 11 races and just one of those races with less than 30 points, recency bias makes it hard to sit Almirola. However, consider his road-course resume at the Cup level – 19 starts, no top fives, two top 10s (both at Sonoma). Those numbers tell a story, and it says avoid him.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Matt Kenseth | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: Road courses and Kenseth simply do not mix. In 37 road-course starts (between Sonoma and Watkins Glen), the 2003 champ has two top fives and nine top 10s with just three laps led. Throw in his lackluster results since taking the reins of the 42 and this is an easy pass for me.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: Road courses and Kenseth simply do not mix. In 37 road-course starts (between Sonoma and Watkins Glen), the 2003 champ has two top fives and nine top 10s with just three laps led. Throw in his lackluster results since taking the reins of the 42 and this is an easy pass for me.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Clint Bowyer; Garage: Joey Logano, Matt DiBenedetto or Ryan Blaney.
I’m going to be leaning a bit more on results from the Charlotte Roval and other road races to put together a lineup I feel as comfortable as I can with. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race on NBC at 3 p.m. ET.
I’m going to be leaning a bit more on results from the Charlotte Roval and other road races to put together a lineup I feel as comfortable as I can with. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race on NBC at 3 p.m. ET.