Fantasy Fastlane: Expect an AJ Allmendinger rebound at COTA

For the first time in the 2023 season, the NASCAR Cup Series will make left- and right-hand turns at Circuit of The Americas. The famed, picturesque road course has put on two thrillers in its first two stabs at Cup racing, including a frantic last-lap battle last season. This will also be the first Cup race in which there will be no caution for a stage break since stages were introduced in 2017. That means no cutting the stage a few laps short to get track position for the start of the next stage.

RELATED: Full weekend schedule for COTA

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MUST START: AJ Allmendinger | View stats Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet Odds: 10-1 One primary reason Allmendinger runs full time again at the Cup level is his value on road courses. One win in five of the road courses in the regular season and Kaulig has a near lock for the postseason. Allmendinger was mere corners away from winning this race last year until Ross Chastain moved the No. 16 car and Alex Bowman’s No. 48 car out of the way. This could be sweet redemption for the two-time Cup winner this weekend.

MUST START: Austin Cindric | View stats Team Penske, No. 2 Ford Odds: 16-1 Notably, Cindric believes Team Penske’s road-course efforts lagged in 2022. Still, he picked up top 10 finishes in four of the six road courses and earned a runner-up result in Indianapolis. Though little to nothing will translate over from Atlanta last weekend, the No. 2 team is coming off its best run of the season, tallying a season-high 45 points.

MUST START: Tyler Reddick | View Stats 23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota Odds: 9-1 Yes, Reddick switched teams and manufacturers over the offseason. Yes, Toyota performed below average on road courses in 2022. But Reddick showed he has what it takes on road courses, winning consecutive starts at Road America and Indianapolis not even a year ago. With Reddick in a Toyota, it instantly elevates the team’s prowess on road courses, as he has an average finishing position of seventh in the two COTA races.

MUST START: Daniel Suárez | View stats Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet Odds: 16-1 It was at Sonoma last June when Suárez earned his first Cup victory, but it was at COTA last spring where he showed initial lights-out speed on road courses, leading wire-to-wire in the opening stage. The No. 99 car excelled on road courses in 2022, picking up half of its top-five finishes for the season (three) in those six races.

SLEEPER PICK: Chris Buescher | View stats RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford Odds: 25-1 Dating back to Sonoma last June where Buescher finished runner-up to Suarez, the No. 17 Ford has five straight top-10 finishes on road courses, the longest streak in the series. Add in that the 2015 Xfinity Series champion earned his first win in that series on a road course (Mid-Ohio, 2014), it’s safe to say he’s a good dark horse for COTA.

SLEEPER PICK: Michael McDowell | View stats Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford Odds: 33-1 Having experience in sports cars, McDowell was excited about the Next Gen car last season. He propelled that into the best year of his career, which included four top-10 finishes in the six road course races. COTA would be a good use for McDowell this season, as he’s still looking for his first top-10 result of 2023.

SLEEPER PICK: Jordan Taylor | View stats Odds: 33-1 It’s understandable why you would be hesitant to use Taylor, as he’s making his Cup debut at COTA. However, he’s doing so in Chase Elliott’s No. 9 car, which has proven to be among the elite entries in the field in recent history on road courses. Taylor is a three-time IMSA champion and has some familiarity with the Next Gen car, serving as the driver coach for NASCAR’s Garage 56 entry for the 24 Hours of Le Mans.

STAY AWAY FROM: Joey Logano | View stats Team Penske, No. 22 Ford Odds: 25-1 The current regular season championship leader is coming off his first win of the season at Atlanta. However, he had some miserable runs on road courses in 2022, resulting in an average finish of 17th in the six races. You will get better uses out of Logano over the remaining 20 races in the regular season.

STAY AWAY FROM: Denny Hamlin | View stats Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota Odds: 28-1 The same thing for Logano applies to Hamlin, but even worse. The No. 11 team didn’t score a single top 10 on a road course in 2022, due to the struggles of Toyota as a whole. Maybe 2023 will be a different story, but I wouldn't come out of the gate using him at COTA.

STAY AWAY FROM: Bubba Wallace | View stats 23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota Odds: 100-1 Wallace has continuously gotten better at road courses throughout his NASCAR career, but he still has some disdain for turning left and right. In two COTA starts, he has an average finish of 38.5 with two DNFs.

FEATURED MATCHUP Daniel Suárez vs. Michael McDowell Going off last year’s road course numbers, this is an even matchup. Suárez showed more raw speed, though, and his dominance in the first stage last year at COTA was his launching pad to his recent success on road courses, including the Sonoma win. Should the No. 99 team have a clean race, it would appear he would be a lock to finish inside the top 10.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Kyle Busch vs. Tyler Reddick This one is interesting. Busch takes over the car that Reddick excelled in during the road course races last season with crew chief Randall Burnett. It wasn’t long ago that the two-time Cup champion was touted among the best talents on road courses in the series. My gut, however, pushes me towards Reddick, even though it’s unclear (as of yet) whether Toyota has fixed its road course hindrances from 2022.

FEATURED MATCHUP: AJ Allmendinger vs. Kyle Larson Both drivers are excellent on road courses. Larson has won four of the past nine road course races, with two additional third-place finishes in that span. Though there will be a ton of pressure mounted on the No. 16 team this weekend, it seems like it’s Allmendinger’s time to step up and show why Kaulig Racing has him back in the Cup Series full time. He has four straight top 10s on road courses. Go with 'Dinger.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Austin Cindric vs. Ty Gibbs While it wouldn’t surprise me one iota to see Gibbs get his second consecutive top 10 this weekend, Cindric is the choice here based on his road-racing experience. These two had some great battles on road courses during the 2021 Xfinity season; wouldn’t it be great to relive that again?

MY LINEUP: AJ Allmendinger, Tyler Reddick, Austin Cindric, Daniel Suárez, Christopher Bell GARAGE: Michael McDowell