Fantasy Fastlane: Expect chaos in regular-season finale at Daytona

Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM (as of Thursday).



MUST START:
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Since entering the Cup Series on a full-time basis in 2016, not many drivers have had more success on superspeedways than Blaney. He’s a two-time winner at Talladega and won the regular season finale at Daytona last year. Add that onto the fact that the No. 12 team is still racing for points, and he should be racing toward the front all day on Sunday.

MUST START:
Bubba Wallace | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
But if Blaney doesn’t find Victory Lane, it could very well be his close friend Wallace. In the last two Daytona races, the No. 23 car has finished runner-up and scored the victory at Talladega last fall. Wallace’s confidence is high entering Daytona, and it should be given his superspeedway race craft.

MUST START:
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 12-1
If Logano can make it to the checkered flag at Daytona, the No. 22 car will be a factor. Yes, he’s wrecked out in three of the past five races at the World Center of Racing, and he doesn’t have a top-10 finish there since the 2019 Daytona 500. In that same timeframe, he’s led 26 or more laps in four Daytona races. His aggressiveness could very well pay off, and he’s never content riding around, which means scoring potential points in the first two stages.

MUST START:
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
I know, I know, it’s been a summer to forget for Byron, posting just one top-10 finish in the past 17 races. But he always runs towards the front when drafting is needed, picking up his first Cup win in this race two years ago. The No. 24 car was also victorious earlier this year in the inaugural reconfiguration of Atlanta, which involves pack racing.

SLEEPER PICK:
Erik Jones | View stats
Petty GMS Racing, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 33-1
This is where we have some fun this week. There’s a whole host of drivers who you could throw into this pot, but Jones stands out. Had he protected the bottom lane on the final lap at Talladega, the No. 43 team wouldn’t need to win this weekend’s race to be part of the playoffs. The 26-year-old picked up his first Cup win in the 2018 summer race at Daytona and won the 2020 Clash. Don’t be surprised if he wins his way into the postseason.

SLEEPER PICK:
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 28-1
At superspeedways, it’s always checkers or wreckers for Stenhouse. In 2017, he won the summer race at Daytona, which was his second straight win on a superspeedway. The No. 47 car was leading this year’s Daytona 500 with under 10 laps remaining, when he got turned by Brad Keselowski. Should Stenhouse make it the full 400 miles, he will be in contention for the win.

SLEEPER PICK:
Justin Haley | View stats
Kaulig Racing, No. 31 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Ever since Haley burst onto the NASCAR scene in 2018, he’s been a phenomenal superspeedway racer. Remember, in just his second Xfinity Series start in 2018, he took the checkered flag in first but was deemed to have passed below the yellow line. Then in 2020, he won three straight superspeedway events – just the third driver in series history to accomplish that. This year, he’s been respectable when pack racing, most recently finishing seventh at Atlanta. He also has a Cup win – via weather – at Daytona. (Other names to consider: Aric Almirola, Austin Dillon, Michael McDowell, Brad Keselowski; all of whom have wins at Daytona.)

STAY AWAY FROM:
Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1
While Larson finally picked up his second Cup win of the year last weekend at Watkins Glen, superspeedways are not his forte. In 16 starts at Daytona, he’s DNF’d seven times, and has just one top-five finish in 31 combined starts at Daytona and Talladega.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 18-1
Arguably, Truex had the quickest car in this year’s Daytona 500. The No. 19 car won the first two stages, something he will likely need to duplicate in order to have a chance at catching Ryan Blaney on points (-25). Unless the No. 12 car wrecks out, it’s hard to see that happening. However, with Kurt Busch withdrawing his playoff waiver request, Truex moves to the playoff cutline.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Daniel Suárez | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
In 10 starts at Daytona, Suarez has a DNF rate of 80%. Yes, EIGHTY PERCENT. Hopefully, you got solid uses from the No. 99 team in the first 25 races of the year.

MY LINEUP: Ryan Blaney, Bubba Wallace, William Byron, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin

GARAGE: Erik Jones

FEATURED MATCHUP: Kyle Larson vs. Kyle Busch

Disclaimer: These picks were made prior to Friday’s qualifying session that was canceled due to inclement weather.

Both drivers have lacked success at Daytona in recent years. However, Larson has publicly admitted this season that he doesn’t have the confidence to pull out of line in superspeedways to be the first car to make a move. Because of that alone, Busch, who is naturally aggressive, should get your vote.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Ryan Blaney vs. Martin Truex Jr.

Disclaimer: These picks were made prior to Friday’s qualifying session that was canceled due to inclement weather.

Based on who I have as a must start and stay away from, this one is easy. Blaney is the clear-cut favorite to perform better than Truex at Daytona. In 30 combined starts at Daytona and Talladega, Blaney has three wins. Truex, in 34 starts at Daytona alone, has just three top-five finishes. Zero wins.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Aric Almirola vs. Erik Jones

Disclaimer: These picks were made prior to Friday’s qualifying session that was canceled due to inclement weather..

Almirola and Jones have a knack for superspeedway racing, and both have won at Daytona throughout their careers. Both also must win to make the playoffs. While this is a tossup, I’ll give the slight advantage to Jones because he’s earned a more recent win at Daytona.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Bubba Wallace vs. Chris Buescher

Disclaimer: These picks were made prior to Friday’s qualifying session that was canceled due to inclement weather..

Wallace is an elite superspeedway racer. Buescher is an underrated one. Last summer, it was Buescher that crossed the finish line in second, ahead of Wallace in third. Not long after the race, the No. 17 Ford was disqualified. Truly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see either driver win this weekend, as Buescher won the second Duel race at Daytona earlier this year. But given Wallace’s recent superspeedway success, he’s the choice.