Fantasy Fastlane: Expect the unexpected at Watkins Glen with dramatic tire fall-off

Hendrick Motorsports has been unbeatable at Watkins Glen International in recent years, scoring the last five victories at the famed road course. It’s a prime opportunity for the four-car organization to lock one of its cars into the Round of 12. One of the biggest story lines entering the weekend is the expected tire wear. During a June Goodyear tire test, a developmental Goodyear tire was used that had roughly three seconds of fall off during a 20-lap run. That could throw a spike into fantasy lineups with drivers needing to manage their tires on a fast road course. 

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MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 6-1

A late-race speeding penalty last year derailed Larson from potentially scoring three consecutive wins at Watkins Glen. Compared to some other road courses on the schedule, he hasn’t fully dominated an event in the Finger Lakes, though he had classic battles with teammate Chase Elliott in consecutive seasons to score victories. It’s worth noting there will be stage breaks and it’s possible some teams flip the stages and get buried in the field for the final stage. It’s also possible that the tire fall-off is too dramatic to commit to that strategy. Remember, you only get five starts with drivers during the playoffs and Larson has great venues coming up. With the unknown, I’m saving my starts for Larson entering the weekend, but it's a tough call as he could dominate. 

MUST START:

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 9-1

Prior to running out of fuel and bringing out the lone caution in last year’s Watkins Glen race, Elliott had strung together four straight top-five finishes, including a pair of victories. No. 9 is still looking for his first road course triumph in the Next Gen car, but Watkins Glen is arguably his best road course on the schedule and the site of his first Cup win. The No. 9 team had a solid playoff opener and should build an even bigger points gap this weekend.

MUST START:

Ty Gibbs | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 54 Toyota

Odds: 12-1

In his sophomore season, Gibbs has ascended to be JGR’s most consistent road-course competitor. He finished fifth at The Glen in his rookie campaign and has a prior Xfinity Series victory at the track in 2021. Dropping to 17th late at Atlanta, it’s almost certain that Gibbs will be tracking points at Watkins Glen. He should have enough raw pace to overcome a deficit leading into the final stage, though his inexperience on tracks with significant tire wear could be a detriment. 

MUST START:

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 11-1

Someway, somehow, Bell typically finds himself in position to capitalize on a good result at road courses. He has never finished worse than eighth in three starts at Watkins Glen and had a car capable of winning two of the three road courses this season (COTA and Chicago). The downside here is all five starts for the playoffs will likely be used for Bell, so do you want to spend one here? 

SLEEPER PICK:

Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 35-1

I’m riding the Cindric train to the Round of 12, as he was my dark horse to advance out of the opening round. Fundamentally, Cindric is a top-tier road racer, despite Team Penske struggling to put full races together on road courses over the last two seasons. In two Cup starts at WGI, he has an average finish of 14.5 and has a best finish of 15th on road courses this season. Cindric was among three drivers that participated in the Goodyear test. ...

SLEEPER PICK:

Daniel Suárez | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet

Odds: 25-1

... As was Suárez, who has been feast or famine at Watkins Glen. Half of his six starts have ended inside the top five, with two of his last three results being outside the top 20. The No. 99 team has a best finish of 11th in three road course races this season. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Shane van Gisbergen | View stats

Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet

Odds: 13-2

Van Gisbergen has been otherworldly this year in the Xfinity Series on road courses, winning the last three races contested while turning left and right. That talent should translate immediately into the Cup Series next season when running the full schedule, but he can get a head start on that this weekend with Kaulig. In two road course starts this season, he won Stage 1 of the Chicago Street Course and fought handling issues at COTA. The No. 16 car, with AJ Allmendinger behind the wheel, is the only team to have top five finishes in both Next Gen races at Watkins Glen. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford 

Odds: 100-1

It may very well be Bristol or bust for Keselowski in this round. By scoring 18 points at Atlanta, Keselowski dropped below the Round of 12 elimination line. His recent statistics on road courses leave a lot to be desired, with one top-10 finish in the last 21 road course races. He does have a trio of consecutive runner-up finishes at WGI, and he was on the losing side of an epic last-lap battle in 2012 with Marcos Ambrose and Kyle Busch. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 35-1

While three Hendrick Motorsports cars could be considered the pre-weekend favorite, the most recent road course -- street course -- winner should not be. Bowman is an underrated road course competitor and has scored the most road-course points of playoff drivers this year, but steer clear of the No. 48 car this weekend. In seven starts at WGI, he has an average finish of 21.4 with a trio of 14th-place efforts for Hendrick. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 40-1

By virtue of Logano’s Atlanta victory, he is playing with house money for the rest of the round, which could be considered the trickiest opening round in playoff history. Surely, the No. 22 is going to be chasing playoff points, however they can get them. The only issue is, most other teams are going to be chasing stage points. That could set the No. 22 car up well for the final stage, but the loss of stage points could hurt. Logano has consecutive top 10s at Watkins Glen after his four prior finishes all resulting outside the top 20.

FEATURED MATCHUPS:

Denny Hamlin vs. Chase Elliott

In race conditions, Hamlin has largely struggled on road courses in recent years. The exception is Watkins Glen. Since his lone victory at WGI in 2016, the No. 11 car has five top-five finishes in the last seven starts. By running in the back of the pack and wrecking on the final lap at Atlanta, he needs a strong performance this weekend. Just don’t think he will have the outright pace to hang with Elliott. 

Austin Cindric vs. Ty Gibbs

Cindric has shown that he is an aggressive superspeedway racer and uses a methodical approach on road courses, which has granted him success. Gibbs uses that same aggression that Cindric displays on superspeedways at road courses and it’s paid off. Both are available in my lineup entering the weekend, but Gibbs is on the cusp of finding Victory Lane at a road course. 

Kyle Larson vs. William Byron

This is a heavyweight bout between Hendrick teammates who have combined to win the last three races at Watkins Glen. Byron finally broke through to Victory Lane on a road course last season at WGI and followed it up with a commanding win at COTA in March. This will be one of those rare instances though where I’ll pick the driver who’s not featured in my lineup – Larson – to get the upper hand. 

Tyler Reddick vs. Christopher Bell

These two drivers are about even in three Watkins Glen starts. Bell has Reddick bettered in average finishing position (6.0 to 8.3). Neither have ever finished outside the top 10. This is a tossup in its truest of forms, but let’s take Bell. 

MY LINEUP: Chase Elliott, Ty Gibbs, Christopher Bell, Shane van Gisbergen, William Byron

GARAGE: Austin Cindric