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Fantasy Fastlane: Feeling a Kurt Busch use for Atlanta
By RJ Kraft | Saturday, March 19, 2022
NASCAR Digital Media
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
The car configuration for Atlanta will be the one also used on superspeedways at Daytona and Talladega, so we will be using recent stats there as a baseline for some thoughts as well.
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
The car configuration for Atlanta will be the one also used on superspeedways at Daytona and Talladega, so we will be using recent stats there as a baseline for some thoughts as well.
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
2 of 19
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Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney is the defending race winner and comes into Atlanta with three straight top-five finishes at the 1.54-mile track. He also carries the best average finish here among active drivers thanks to that hot stretch. The 12 has had speed everywhere to open the season, and YRB has led the most laps thus far. If this races like a superspeedway based on the car configuration, that could play into his hands as he has three wins at that track type.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney is the defending race winner and comes into Atlanta with three straight top-five finishes at the 1.54-mile track. He also carries the best average finish here among active drivers thanks to that hot stretch. The 12 has had speed everywhere to open the season, and YRB has led the most laps thus far. If this races like a superspeedway based on the car configuration, that could play into his hands as he has three wins at that track type.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
3 of 19
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Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Over the last five races on the older Atlanta surface, Busch had not finished outside the top seven and had two runner-up finishes in his last three races there. The superspeedway element of the new layout makes this tricky because he did well run at Daytona with this configuration, but it's also reasonable to expect he and the Toyota camp to pick up some speed in the coming weeks – which would make him a sound choice nearly anywhere.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Over the last five races on the older Atlanta surface, Busch had not finished outside the top seven and had two runner-up finishes in his last three races there. The superspeedway element of the new layout makes this tricky because he did well run at Daytona with this configuration, but it's also reasonable to expect he and the Toyota camp to pick up some speed in the coming weeks – which would make him a sound choice nearly anywhere.
Logan Riely | Getty Images
4 of 19
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Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott's 13.6 average finish in seven Atlanta starts is fourth best among active drivers. He has been steady but not spectacular at his home track. In his last five superspeedway starts, Elliott has the fifth-most points and nabbed a top-10 finish earlier this year at Daytona. The important thing to consider is to make sure you have enough uses for the 2020 champ on road courses and short tracks to fill your allotted 10 for the regular season.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott's 13.6 average finish in seven Atlanta starts is fourth best among active drivers. He has been steady but not spectacular at his home track. In his last five superspeedway starts, Elliott has the fifth-most points and nabbed a top-10 finish earlier this year at Daytona. The important thing to consider is to make sure you have enough uses for the 2020 champ on road courses and short tracks to fill your allotted 10 for the regular season.
Logan Riely | Getty Images
5 of 19
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Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick won two of the last five races at Atlanta on the aged surface and was someone you could pencil in for a top-10 showing there. The 2014 champion has scored the sixth-most points in superspeedway races since last season. That said, his Phoenix performance to me provided a template of places Harvick is a must-use – think Dover, Nashville and New Hampshire. That leaves us with some available uses to consider.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick won two of the last five races at Atlanta on the aged surface and was someone you could pencil in for a top-10 showing there. The 2014 champion has scored the sixth-most points in superspeedway races since last season. That said, his Phoenix performance to me provided a template of places Harvick is a must-use – think Dover, Nashville and New Hampshire. That leaves us with some available uses to consider.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
6 of 19
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Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: When you think superspeedways, Truex is likely not one of the first 10-15 drivers to pop into your head. But do you know who scored the second-most points in the Daytona 500 this year? MTJ did with two stage wins. That's the only race that has used this particular car configuration and that makes him worth the consideration.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: When you think superspeedways, Truex is likely not one of the first 10-15 drivers to pop into your head. But do you know who scored the second-most points in the Daytona 500 this year? MTJ did with two stage wins. That's the only race that has used this particular car configuration and that makes him worth the consideration.
Logan Riely | Getty Images
7 of 19
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Kurt Busch | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Old Atlanta was a track right in Busch's wheelhouse. The veteran excels at worn-out surfaces with six top-eight finishes in his last seven starts and a win in the last race on the old surface. So, we shall see on this new layout. While he lacks stage points, the veteran has been one of the better plays in the Toyota camp to date. The beauty of using the 2004 champion? I have yet to use him and don't envision utilizing him all 10 times.
23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Old Atlanta was a track right in Busch's wheelhouse. The veteran excels at worn-out surfaces with six top-eight finishes in his last seven starts and a win in the last race on the old surface. So, we shall see on this new layout. While he lacks stage points, the veteran has been one of the better plays in the Toyota camp to date. The beauty of using the 2004 champion? I have yet to use him and don't envision utilizing him all 10 times.
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8 of 19
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Austin Cindric | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: The Daytona 500 winner has one Cup start at Atlanta on his resume, but the real reason for consideration here is how good he was with this car configuration at Daytona last month. Does that automatically forecast future success? No, but it’s the only race we have to go on with this particular configuration. The watch-out here is to make sure you uses available for the road courses later in the season as he is pretty strong at that type of racing.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: The Daytona 500 winner has one Cup start at Atlanta on his resume, but the real reason for consideration here is how good he was with this car configuration at Daytona last month. Does that automatically forecast future success? No, but it’s the only race we have to go on with this particular configuration. The watch-out here is to make sure you uses available for the road courses later in the season as he is pretty strong at that type of racing.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
9 of 19
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Brad Keselowski | View stats
Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski had two wins at Atlanta from his Penske days. Since Daytona, the new co-owner of RFK Racing has struggled with three straight finishes outside the top 20. The repaved Atlanta track could be a turning point, especially if it races like a superspeedway. He has the second-most points over the last five superspeedway races, and we've seen how aggressive he can get with that type of racing. A definite risk-reward proposition.
Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski had two wins at Atlanta from his Penske days. Since Daytona, the new co-owner of RFK Racing has struggled with three straight finishes outside the top 20. The repaved Atlanta track could be a turning point, especially if it races like a superspeedway. He has the second-most points over the last five superspeedway races, and we've seen how aggressive he can get with that type of racing. A definite risk-reward proposition.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
10 of 19
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SLEEPER PICK: Chase Briscoe | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's winner at Phoenix is sure to see his ownership increase. He finished third in the 2022 Daytona 500 using this car configuration and has the 10th-most points over the last five superspeedway races with three top 15s. His road-racing acumen makes him someone to keep in mind for those tracks, but he could be worth the start here as well.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's winner at Phoenix is sure to see his ownership increase. He finished third in the 2022 Daytona 500 using this car configuration and has the 10th-most points over the last five superspeedway races with three top 15s. His road-racing acumen makes him someone to keep in mind for those tracks, but he could be worth the start here as well.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
11 of 19
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SLEEPER PICK: Ross Chastain | View stats
Trackhouse Racing Team, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: Two top-three finishes in a row this season get you a mention even if your Atlanta and/or superspeedway stats are not all too great. It's hard to argue against the momentum Chastain has entering this weekend. When the season began, I had him penciled in as a road-course option and at some of the 1-mile tracks. I'm interested to see how he looks this weekend.
Trackhouse Racing Team, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: Two top-three finishes in a row this season get you a mention even if your Atlanta and/or superspeedway stats are not all too great. It's hard to argue against the momentum Chastain has entering this weekend. When the season began, I had him penciled in as a road-course option and at some of the 1-mile tracks. I'm interested to see how he looks this weekend.
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12 of 19
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SLEEPER PICK: Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 33-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon's last three runs at Atlanta saw him finish in the top 12 in all three of those races. The real layer on intrigue with AD comes in the form of this track now racing like a superspeedway. Over the last five superspeedway races, Dillon has the third-most points and has a tendency to find himself at or near the front of the field in these races.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 33-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon's last three runs at Atlanta saw him finish in the top 12 in all three of those races. The real layer on intrigue with AD comes in the form of this track now racing like a superspeedway. Over the last five superspeedway races, Dillon has the third-most points and has a tendency to find himself at or near the front of the field in these races.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
13 of 19
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SLEEPER PICK: Bubba Wallace | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota
Odds: 33-1
Fastlane forecast: Wallace as a sleeper play comes down to how the repaved Atlanta track races. If it races more like a superspeedway as expected, then he needs to be a consideration. Over the last five superspeedway races, he has the most points with his Talladega win from 2021 and his runner-up finish in this year’s Daytona 500 in that stretch.
23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota
Odds: 33-1
Fastlane forecast: Wallace as a sleeper play comes down to how the repaved Atlanta track races. If it races more like a superspeedway as expected, then he needs to be a consideration. Over the last five superspeedway races, he has the most points with his Talladega win from 2021 and his runner-up finish in this year’s Daytona 500 in that stretch.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
14 of 19
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SLEEPER PICK: Chris Buescher | View stats
Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Buescher could be the sweet spot of decent recent history at Atlanta combined with a solid superspeedway record if that is how the racing style plays out. He has two top 10s in his last four Atlanta starts. In three of his last four superspeedway races, he has scored at least 25 points and won the second Duel race at Daytona last month.
Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Buescher could be the sweet spot of decent recent history at Atlanta combined with a solid superspeedway record if that is how the racing style plays out. He has two top 10s in his last four Atlanta starts. In three of his last four superspeedway races, he has scored at least 25 points and won the second Duel race at Daytona last month.
Logan Riely | Getty Images
15 of 19
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WAIT AND SEE: Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: Larson has the second-best average finish at Atlanta among drivers in Sunday's field. Yet, the repave adds in a wrinkle, especially if it races more like a superspeedway. I want my Larson uses to come at tracks where speed is at more of a premium or on road courses where he has proven he is as good as Chase Elliott at that track type. Having spent a use for a disappointing Phoenix result also makes me cling to the eight uses I have left.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: Larson has the second-best average finish at Atlanta among drivers in Sunday's field. Yet, the repave adds in a wrinkle, especially if it races more like a superspeedway. I want my Larson uses to come at tracks where speed is at more of a premium or on road courses where he has proven he is as good as Chase Elliott at that track type. Having spent a use for a disappointing Phoenix result also makes me cling to the eight uses I have left.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
16 of 19
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WAIT AND SEE: Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: To call Hamlin's start to 2022 disappointing is the understatement of the season. His Atlanta numbers have been more up of late with three top fives in his last five starts there. The repave may actually play to his advantage if it runs more like a superspeedway given Hamlin’s strength at that track type. The Toyotas as a whole have been off on speed to start the year, so this could be a place to steal a use, but let’s see how they unload.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: To call Hamlin's start to 2022 disappointing is the understatement of the season. His Atlanta numbers have been more up of late with three top fives in his last five starts there. The repave may actually play to his advantage if it runs more like a superspeedway given Hamlin’s strength at that track type. The Toyotas as a whole have been off on speed to start the year, so this could be a place to steal a use, but let’s see how they unload.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Pre-repave at Atlanta, this has been a tough track for Logano. He has just five top 10s in 16 starts and an average finish of 16.7. In his last four starts there, he has just one top 10 and the 12th-most points there. My plan is to stay away from the bulk of max use plays here, and Logano's history here combined with the unknowns of this track make that easy.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Pre-repave at Atlanta, this has been a tough track for Logano. He has just five top 10s in 16 starts and an average finish of 16.7. In his last four starts there, he has just one top 10 and the 12th-most points there. My plan is to stay away from the bulk of max use plays here, and Logano's history here combined with the unknowns of this track make that easy.
Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: In five Atlanta starts, Byron has one top 10 and an average finish of 19.2. The expectation coming out of the track's repave is that this could race a lot like a superspeedway, which is also yet another reason to stay away from the young driver. Over the last five superspeedway races, Byron has the 25th-most points – an average of 12.6 in those races.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: In five Atlanta starts, Byron has one top 10 and an average finish of 19.2. The expectation coming out of the track's repave is that this could race a lot like a superspeedway, which is also yet another reason to stay away from the young driver. Over the last five superspeedway races, Byron has the 25th-most points – an average of 12.6 in those races.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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My lineup heading into the weekend: Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski, Austin Dillon, Chase Briscoe; Garage: Denny Hamlin.
Just missed the cut: Austin Cindric, Alex Bowman, Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain and Chris Buescher.
The repave and how this track will race is a major wild card and makes Friday’s practice session all the more important to monitor. My initial plan going in is to hold back most of the big names until I get a sense for how this may play out before Sunday’s race at 3 p.m. ET on FOX.
On a personal note, this is the final version of Fantasy Fastlane that will be written by me as I am moving on after eight-and-a-half-years at NASCAR.com. Appreciate all of you reading and following along over the last couple of years as well as the back-and-forth talk on race days. There will be fantasy coverage this weekend with the fantasy update, and there will continue to be fantasy content each week on the site. Be sure to check that out.
Just missed the cut: Austin Cindric, Alex Bowman, Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain and Chris Buescher.
The repave and how this track will race is a major wild card and makes Friday’s practice session all the more important to monitor. My initial plan going in is to hold back most of the big names until I get a sense for how this may play out before Sunday’s race at 3 p.m. ET on FOX.
On a personal note, this is the final version of Fantasy Fastlane that will be written by me as I am moving on after eight-and-a-half-years at NASCAR.com. Appreciate all of you reading and following along over the last couple of years as well as the back-and-forth talk on race days. There will be fantasy coverage this weekend with the fantasy update, and there will continue to be fantasy content each week on the site. Be sure to check that out.
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