Fantasy Fastlane: Focus on drivers chasing points at Charlotte Roval

INTRO:
MUST START:
Austin Cindric | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Depending on where drivers sit in points entering the Charlotte Roval will determine whether they chase stage points or only the race victory. For Cindric, who enters the race tied with Chase Briscoe at 12 points below the cutline, the first two stages will likely be all about points. Should the No. 2 team have a clean race, that bodes well for fantasy players because drivers who are contending for the win will give up those stage points. Start Cindric, who is also an elite road course racer.

MUST START:
Chase Briscoe | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Everything said for Cindric applies to Briscoe. The No. 14 team has overachieved in the playoffs and is on its first streak of consecutive top-10 finishes in 2022 entering the Roval. The good news for Briscoe is that he’s performed excellently at the Roval, winning the first Xfinity Series race run at the venue. In fact, Cindric believes he’s the “underdog” this weekend while racing against Briscoe.

MUST START:
Daniel Suárez | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
Beginning to see a theme? With William Byron getting 25 points back on Thursday, it moves Suárez down to the cutline, 12 points above Briscoe and Cindric. The No. 99 team has been among the best on road courses in 2022, earning a victory at Sonoma in June. Since then, Suárez has two additional top-five efforts on road courses in three starts and was running inside the top five at Indy when he was spun late in the race.

MUST START:
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 4-1
OK, if we’re disregarding points, Elliott is your best bet. By himself, he’s won seven of the last 19 road course races, though just one of the last nine. He’s batting .500 in four Roval races and is riding a wave of momentum following his last-lap pass to win at Talladega.

SLEEPER PICK:
AJ Allmendinger | View stats
Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Really, Allmendinger isn’t a sleeper, as he almost always maximizes what his car can get him, specifically on road courses. He’s been in contention to win two of the five road courses this year, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he were to sweep the weekend between Cup and Xfinity. And if he happens to be off, well, he can redeem himself next year when he drives full time in Cup.

SLEEPER PICK:
Michael McDowell | View stats
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 28-1
A driver who won’t be chasing points is McDowell, as the Roval will be his best opportunity to get a win before his career-year concludes next month. The No. 34 team has been on a tear this season, earning 12 top-10 finishes. In his first four years with FRM combined, he had 12 such finishes. McDowell also has four straight top-eight finishes when turning left and right.

SLEEPER PICK:
Chris Buescher | View stats
RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Prior to winning at Bristol, Buescher’s year was highlighted by strong races on road courses. He finished second to Daniel Suárez at Sonoma and has top-10 efforts in the last four road course races. In those races, he’s averaging 33.25 points.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 28-1
It has been an absolute postseason to forget for Busch, who earned his best finish in the five races last weekend at Talladega. And even that was only good enough for 20th. Toyota’s struggles on road courses have been well documented in 2022 (Busch has an average finish of 26th in those five races this year), so hold off on using the No. 18 car.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 28-1
It wasn’t long ago that Truex was touted as one of the top road course racers in the Cup Series. This year, however, he has an average finish of 14.2, with three results coming of 21st or worse. Like Busch, the No. 19 team is still looking to find consistency in the playoffs (even though he missed the field), with just one finish better than 26th.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Bubba Wallace | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota
Odds: 150-1
While we’re on the Toyota soapbox, avoid using Wallace this weekend. Admittedly, he’s not a fan of the Roval and has struggled on road courses throughout his career. The possible solace this weekend is the No. 45 team is still in the owner’s championship battle, but it’s hard seeing Wallace make up 24 points this weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Chase Elliott vs. Kyle Larson

Ha, these two drivers have been the best drivers on road courses over the last two seasons. You can’t go wrong with either of the Hendrick Motorsports duo this weekend, especially with how Larson overcame multiple early hurdles at the Roval last year and still won. But I’m not betting against Elliott.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Christopher Bell vs. William Byron

No doubt, Bell has been the best Toyota driver on road courses in 2022 and was in contention to win at the Indy road course before he had a tire explode. However, he will solely be chasing the win. Because of that, Byron is the best option here, as he will likely be going after stage points.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Austin Cindric vs. Chase Briscoe

Speaking to both drivers following Talladega, they were confident in their abilities at the Roval. Both are fantastic road racers, and Cindric believes Briscoe has the leg up this weekend. Because of Cindric’s consistency this year – four top 10s in five road course starts – I would give him a slight advantage.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Daniel Suárez vs. Joey Logano

One of the bigger surprises of 2022 is how well Trackhouse Racing has been on road courses – or just how consistent the team has been overall. After Sunday, in which the team will make its 100th and 101st career starts, it’s possible they have two drivers in the Round of 8. Logano laid back late at Talladega and will likely be chasing stage points this weekend, a strategy the No. 22 bunch often plays at road courses. This matchup is even, so take your pick. I’ll go with Suárez.

MY LINEUP: Chase Elliott, Austin Cindric, Chase Briscoe, Daniel Suárez, Tyler Reddick

GARAGE: AJ Allmendinger