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Fantasy Fastlane: Ford aims for five-peat at New Hampshire
By Dustin Albino for NASCAR.com | Published: July 15, 2022 12
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Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM (as of Thursday).
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Jacob Kupferman | Getty Images
MUST START:
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 16-1
With just four top-five finishes through 19 races, Harvick has little to be happy about this season, entering New Hampshire 19 points below the playoff cutline. However, since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014, the No. 4 team has a trio of wins at the Magic Mile, with eight top fives in 12 starts. Last year, he led 66 laps en route to a sixth-place effort.
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 16-1
With just four top-five finishes through 19 races, Harvick has little to be happy about this season, entering New Hampshire 19 points below the playoff cutline. However, since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014, the No. 4 team has a trio of wins at the Magic Mile, with eight top fives in 12 starts. Last year, he led 66 laps en route to a sixth-place effort.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
MUST START:
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 7-1
The last time the Cup Series visited a track with a layout similar to New Hampshire, it was Logano standing tall in the Winner’s Circle at Gateway. Last year, the No. 22 team gave the field a two-lap advantage and still rebounded to finish fourth. NHMS is the 2018 Cup champion’s home track, which always gives him an extra pep in his step.
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 7-1
The last time the Cup Series visited a track with a layout similar to New Hampshire, it was Logano standing tall in the Winner’s Circle at Gateway. Last year, the No. 22 team gave the field a two-lap advantage and still rebounded to finish fourth. NHMS is the 2018 Cup champion’s home track, which always gives him an extra pep in his step.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
MUST START:
Christopher Bell | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 16-1
It doesn’t matter what Bell drives around New Hampshire; he gets the job done. Last year, he finished runner-up and was coming on strong when the race was deemed official eight laps shy of its full distance. That came just one day after dominating the Xfinity Series race, leading 151 of 200 laps. In three Xfinity starts at the track, he’s undefeated, leading 430 of 600 laps (71.7%).
Christopher Bell | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 16-1
It doesn’t matter what Bell drives around New Hampshire; he gets the job done. Last year, he finished runner-up and was coming on strong when the race was deemed official eight laps shy of its full distance. That came just one day after dominating the Xfinity Series race, leading 151 of 200 laps. In three Xfinity starts at the track, he’s undefeated, leading 430 of 600 laps (71.7%).
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
MUST START:
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 6-1
In recent years, Blaney has picked up on what it takes to be successful at the flat, one-mile track. In his last five races there, he has four top 10s, including a fifth-place run in 2021. Could this be the weekend the No. 12 car finds Victory Lane for the first time in a points-paying race in 2022?
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 6-1
In recent years, Blaney has picked up on what it takes to be successful at the flat, one-mile track. In his last five races there, he has four top 10s, including a fifth-place run in 2021. Could this be the weekend the No. 12 car finds Victory Lane for the first time in a points-paying race in 2022?
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK:
Brad Keselowski | View stats
RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 66-1
As noted over the last couple of weeks in this very column, Keselowski is looking for anything to turn his season around. Well, he’s always competitive in New Hampshire, dominating the race in 2020. The No. 6 team is in Hail Mary mode and looking to pull off an upset win, like Aric Almirola did last season.
Brad Keselowski | View stats
RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 66-1
As noted over the last couple of weeks in this very column, Keselowski is looking for anything to turn his season around. Well, he’s always competitive in New Hampshire, dominating the race in 2020. The No. 6 team is in Hail Mary mode and looking to pull off an upset win, like Aric Almirola did last season.
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Dylan Buell | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK:
Aric Almirola | View stats
Aric Almirola, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Ah, speaking of Almirola, he arguably pulled off the biggest upset win of the season last year at NHMS. And while the win appeared to come from out of nowhere, the Florida native has four straight finishes of 11th or better at the track. Throw that on top of earning fifth- and sixth-place finishes for then-Richard Petty Motorsports, and it’s undeniably one of his best circuits.
Aric Almirola | View stats
Aric Almirola, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Ah, speaking of Almirola, he arguably pulled off the biggest upset win of the season last year at NHMS. And while the win appeared to come from out of nowhere, the Florida native has four straight finishes of 11th or better at the track. Throw that on top of earning fifth- and sixth-place finishes for then-Richard Petty Motorsports, and it’s undeniably one of his best circuits.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK:
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 9-1
With Truex’s accomplishments, he should never be considered a sleeper. But he’s still searching for his first checkered flag at the Magic Mile, despite having a recent five-race stretch (2016-2018) where he led 596 of 1,503 laps (39.7%). And if NHMS is being compared to Gateway, the No. 19 car led 42 circuits there earlier this year.
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 9-1
With Truex’s accomplishments, he should never be considered a sleeper. But he’s still searching for his first checkered flag at the Magic Mile, despite having a recent five-race stretch (2016-2018) where he led 596 of 1,503 laps (39.7%). And if NHMS is being compared to Gateway, the No. 19 car led 42 circuits there earlier this year.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM:
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Tracks like New Hampshire have been the Achilles' heel for the No. 24 team in 2022. At Gateway, Hendrick Motorsports showed little speed across the board, which should be a tad concerning for this weekend. Byron, meanwhile, is still looking for his first top 10 at NHMS.
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Tracks like New Hampshire have been the Achilles' heel for the No. 24 team in 2022. At Gateway, Hendrick Motorsports showed little speed across the board, which should be a tad concerning for this weekend. Byron, meanwhile, is still looking for his first top 10 at NHMS.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM:
Kurt Busch | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Despite being a top-five car at Gateway last month, Busch has struggled in recent memory at New Hampshire, with just a quartet of top 10s in his last 17 starts, dating back to 2011. Save the No. 45 car for a different week.
Kurt Busch | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Despite being a top-five car at Gateway last month, Busch has struggled in recent memory at New Hampshire, with just a quartet of top 10s in his last 17 starts, dating back to 2011. Save the No. 45 car for a different week.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM:
Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 28-1
Currently, Bowman has little momentum, having not scored a top-10 result in the last five races. In the past, admittedly, he’s struggled to get around the one-mile track, though he did get his first top 10 there last July. That, however, was tarnished after being penalized for engine allocation infractions.
Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 28-1
Currently, Bowman has little momentum, having not scored a top-10 result in the last five races. In the past, admittedly, he’s struggled to get around the one-mile track, though he did get his first top 10 there last July. That, however, was tarnished after being penalized for engine allocation infractions.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
MY LINEUP: Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, Kevin Harvick, Christopher Bell, Kyle Busch
Garage: Martin Truex Jr.
Garage: Martin Truex Jr.