Fantasy Fastlane: Ford carries momentum into Coca-Cola 600

At the halfway point of the regular season, there’s usually clarity on which drivers could be battling for the Bill France Cup come November at Phoenix Raceway. While Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing have combined to win all but three points-paying races, Ford has turned up the wick in recent weeks, scoring its first win of the season at Darlington Raceway and leading all 200 laps of the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro Speedway. Add in Kyle Larson’s attempt to complete all 1,100 miles on Sunday between the Indianapolis 500 and Coca-Cola 600, plus the 400-lap marathon paying the most points in a single race throughout the season, Charlotte is a tricky weekend to build a fantasy lineup.

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MUST START: 

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 10-1

It was just last season when Ford was in a similar spot as to where they are now with the Next Gen car. Then, the series went to Charlotte and Blaney flat-out dominated the event, earning his first Crown Jewel triumph. The same Goodyear tire that was used at Darlington Raceway earlier this month will be used this weekend, and Blaney was among the fastest cars until being involved in a restart wreck early in the second stage. If Ford struggles during practice and qualifying, this might flip, but the manufacturer has clearly found more speed during the month of May.

MUST START: 

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 14-1

Leading the Ford train is Buescher. He’s yet to experience the thrill of victory in 2024, but can he get any closer? It took a Herculean final lap by Larson at Kansas to beat the No. 17 car in the closest finish in series history and a divebomb gone wrong by Tyler Reddick in the closing laps at Darlington to keep Buescher out of Victory Lane. Otherwise, he could be entering Charlotte with consecutive victories. Buescher won Stage 2 last year at the Coca-Cola 600 en route to an eighth-place finish. 

MUST START: 

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 28-1

The stat sheet won’t tell the full story, but Wallace has been one of the best drivers at Charlotte in the Next Gen era. It’s been widely touted how well Toyota runs on intermediate tracks, though 23XI Racing struggled at Kansas, and Wallace finished fourth at Charlotte last May. Had the team understood the damaged vehicle policy in 2022, it’s quite realistic to think Wallace would have consecutive top 10s at Charlotte. 

MUST START: 

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-1

With how 2024 has gone so far, it would be ill-mannered to not have a Hendrick car in your lineup. The same could be said about JGR. It would not shock anyone to see Larson land back in Charlotte after a strong run in his first Indy 500 and contend for the victory in the 600. However, I’m going with a safer pick in Elliott, who will have his full attention on Charlotte and has led 20-plus laps in five of the last six Charlotte races. I’ve also got to save starts with Larson.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 18-1

Though Busch is having a trying season with RCR, he’s one of three drivers to have top 10s in both Next Gen races on the Charlotte oval. He scored stage points in two stages last year and finished sixth in the race. Add in the fact that Busch had five top fives in the previous six Charlotte races – granted with JGR – and it seems kind of boneheaded to label him a sleeper. But here we are. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats

JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet

Odds: 200-1

Ha! Consider it a coincidence (or maybe not) that Stenhouse is the next sleeper, coming off his post-race scuffle with Busch at the All-Star Race. The No. 47 team has been consistent at Charlotte, earning seventh-place finishes in the last two Coca-Cola 600s. Dating back to 2020, he’s never finished worse than 12th at Charlotte in the last four starts. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Austin Dillon | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet

Odds: 200-1

Mired 31st in the championship standings, 2024 can only get better for Dillon. The good news: he’s a former Coca-Cola 600 winner and has three top-10 finishes in the last four Charlotte races. The season must flip at some point, right? 

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 16-1

One of the biggest mysteries so far in 2024 is where the No. 1 team stands. Chastain has shined early in some races, such as Kansas, while dropping off a cliff in the same race. He has the eighth-best average finish of full-time drivers in the series but hasn’t scored a top-10 finish since COTA in late March. Five of his six Charlotte finishes have resulted outside the top 20. 

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 18-1

While Logano is carrying confidence and momentum heading into NASCAR’s longest race, his recent track record at Charlotte is not ideal. In the last 10 Charlotte races, the No. 22 team has six finishes of 20th or worse, while he does have a runner-up result sprinkled in. Logano hasn’t been much of a factor on intermediate tracks in 2024, though he had good pace at Darlington before speeding on pit road. 

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 13-1

This could be a huge mistake, but what is going on with the No. 20 team? Bell ended a top-10 drought at Kansas, the series’ last 1.5-mile track, but was much of a nonfactor at Darlington. And while he ran well early in the All-Star Race, he dropped in the waning laps. Confused, bewildered and puzzled are words that come to mind when summing up Bell’s first 13 races this season, knowing the team has unlimited potential.  

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Kyle Larson vs. William Byron

The last week for Larson has been one he won’t soon forget, but his attention has been split between NASCAR and IndyCar. Entering the weekend, Byron should have the upper hand because all of his focus will be on 600 miles at Charlotte. While Larson won this Crown Jewel event (2021), Byron was best in class last year with Blaney running away. Taking the No. 24 this weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Jimmie Johnson vs. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Making sporadic appearances in the Cup Series has been no easy task for the seven-time champion. Through seven races, he has a best finish of 28th. And though he ranks second all-time with four Coca-Cola 600 wins, Stenhouse is the way to go at Charlotte. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Kyle Busch vs. Ryan Blaney

After Busch’s altercation with Stenhouse following the All-Star Race, he chirped back to the 2023 Daytona 500 champion, “I suck just as bad as you do.” It’s been a tough go for Busch in 2024, but the No. 8 team has shown speed on intermediate tracks this season. However, I’m not picking against Blaney, who led a career-high 163 laps last season.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Joey Logano vs. Tyler Reddick

Ford has certainly stepped up its game, winning the last two races – albeit one was an invitational – in 2024. Charlotte has always been hit or miss for Logano, while Reddick is the third driver – joining Busch and Stenhouse – to have top 10s in the first two Next Gen races at Charlotte. The No. 45 car has arguably had the most outright speed on intermediate tracks this season, so it would be wise to use Reddick here.

MY LINEUP: Ryan Blaney, Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick

GARAGE: Kyle Busch