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Fantasy Fastlane: Ford EcoBoost 400
By RJ Kraft | Published: November 14, 2016 15
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the outlook for the top drivers as well as two sleepers and two value plays based on NASCAR Fantasy Live prices. NASCAR.com fantasy expert RJ Kraft breaks down the drivers you want in your lineup and which drivers you want to avoid for this week.
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Jimmie Johnson
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 ChevroletLearn more about Johnson
Fantasy Live price: $27.75
Fastlane forecast: As Johnson goes for a seventh title, it's important to note that the price jumps up a bit and Miami is one of four active tracks he has yet to win. He has three straight ninth-place finishes there and should be in the mix right to the end.
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Chase Elliott
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 ChevroletLearn more about Elliott
Fantasy Live price: $26.00
Fastlane forecast: Elliott has not made any Sprint Cup starts at Miami. During the Chase, he has three top-four finishes and has led 185 laps on 1.5-mile tracks. He had just one lap led in the six pre-Chase races on that track type. Don't overlook the rookie.
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Matt Kenseth
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 ToyotaLearn more about Kenseth
Fantasy Live price: $26.00
Fastlane forecast: A heartbreaking spin took Kenseth out of the Chase. Don't sleep on the 2003 champion at Miami where he has one win, the top average running position (8.52) and the second-most laps led (449). He's a good bet this weekend.
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Brad Keselowski
Team Penske, No. 2 FordLearn more about Keselowski
Fantasy Live price: $26.25
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has three straight top-six finishes at Miami and the past average finish (4.0) over that stretch. He also led a race-high 86 laps there last year. The 2012 champion is a bit of an under-the-radar play this weekend.
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Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 ToyotaLearn more about Hamlin
Fantasy Live price: $26.50
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has two wins at Miami and the fifth-best average finish (10.7) among active drivers at the track. The JGR driver has led 122 laps in the last three races here, as well. The past success at this track makes Denny an intriguing option.
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Martin Truex Jr.
Furniture Row Racing, No. 78 ToyotaLearn more about Truex
Fantasy Live price: $26.75
Fastlane forecast: Truex has the second-best average running position (9.17) at Miami in the loop data era. Add in the 78's impressive resume on 1.5-mile tracks this year – two wins and 883 laps led – and the signs point to playing Truex in the finale.
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Carl Edwards
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 ToyotaLearn more about Edwards
Fantasy Live price: $27.00
Fastlane forecast: Edwards has the fourth-best average finish (8.8) among active drivers at Miami to go with his two wins there. In the loop data era, he has led the most laps (568) and holds the best driver rating (109.4). He's a strong play.
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Kevin Harvick
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 ChevroletLearn more about Harvick
Fantasy Live price: $27.25
Fastlane forecast: Harvick might be out of the Chase, but he is a contender at Miami. He won here for the championship in 2014 and holds the best average finish among active drivers (6.3). Eight straight top 10s at the 1.5-mile track are hard to ignore.
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Kyle Busch
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 ToyotaLearn more about Kyle Busch
Fantasy Live price: $27.50
Fastlane forecast: The defending series champion won here in 2015 for his championship. Despite that, Miami is statistically Busch's second-worst track based on average finish (21.1). Still, his consistency in the Chase is worth riding.
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Joey Logano
Team Penske, No. 22 FordLearn more about Logano
Fantasy Live price: $28.00
Fastlane forecast: Logano enters the Miami on a roll with two wins and 302 laps led in his last four races. This is far from his best track – fourth-worst based on average finish (17.7). That said, it's hard to move away from the hottest driver right now.
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SLEEPER PICK
Kyle Larson
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 ChevroletLearn more about Larson
Fantasy Live price: $24.25
Fastlane forecast: This track suits Larson's style of running the high line, and he has admitted as much on Twitter. His 11.0 average finish in three starts here is sixth-best among active drivers.
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SLEEPER PICK
Alex Bowman
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 ChevroletLearn more about Bowman
Fantasy Live price: $17.75
Fastlane forecast: We have been on the Bowman train this fall and his Phoenix performance of 194 laps led only cements that. The price is a bit higher, but a good play to go against the Chase grain.
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VALUE PLAY
Clint Bowyer
HScott Motorsports, No. 15 ChevroletLearn more about Bowyer
Fantasy Live price: $14.00
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer will move to SHR in 2017, but for now he is a great source for place differential. The veteran driver is averaging +8.5 in gains from start to finish over the past 10 races.
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VALUE PLAY
Brian Scott
Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 44 FordLearn more about Scott
Fantasy Live price: $7.25
Fastlane forecast: Scott heads into his final full-time start with a positive place differential in the past seven races. His average during that stretch is +7.7, which represents great value.