Fantasy Fastlane: Ford in search of ninth straight win at Michigan

If you’ve missed any of the last eight Michigan races, know this: Ford has won them all. The blue oval has always performed well in its backyard, winning 52% of all Cup Series races run in the Irish Hills. It’s known that Ford has struggled in 2023, but it does carry momentum into this weekend, putting seven cars inside the top 11 at Richmond Raceway last weekend.

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MUST START: 
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Harvick has mastered Michigan over his 10-year tenure with SHR. He enters this weekend having won five of the last seven races at Michigan(!) and top-two finishes in 11 of the last 18 starts. Harvick will be a popular choice this weekend, and he snapped a near two-year winless drought last season at the track. The No. 4 team has won just about everywhere together, but this could be among Harvick’s last chances at a win.

MUST START: 
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 7-1
In the early portion of Hamlin’s career, he couldn’t get a knack for Michigan. Then, he won in consecutive years in 2010 and 2011. The No. 11 team hasn’t won at the 2-mile track in 12 years, but Hamlin has five straight top-10 efforts, four of which cracked the top five. Hamlin finished first, second and third in the three stages last year, and he is currently hitting on all cylinders jumping to second in the regular-season championship standings following Richmond.

MUST START: 
Bubba Wallace | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota
Odds: 14-1
Following a Goodyear tire test at Michigan last spring, Wallace had a boatload of confidence returning to the track a couple of months later. That confidence paid off by winning his first career pole and finishing runner-up in the race. Wallace has spoken highly of returning to MIS this weekend, and another strong run would put him in a prime position to make the postseason, having gained 54 points on the cutline over the last two races.

MUST START: 
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 15-1
Ever since Logano joined Team Penske in 2013, Michigan has been one of the team’s best race tracks. The No. 22 team has won three times at MIS, with the most recent victory coming in 2019. Ironically, all three triumphs have come from the pole position, so if he starts first this weekend, it’s near-automatic to have him in your lineup. Logano has surged as of late, earning four top-five finishes over the last eight races in 2023. 

SLEEPER PICK: 
Ty Gibbs | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 54 Toyota
Odds: 22-1
It took just three career Cup Series starts for Gibbs to score his first top 10, which came at Michigan last season. The rookie driver is battling for his postseason life, now just 18 points out with four races remaining. There’s not much experience at these types of tracks to have a good baseline for Gibbs, but Toyota did put four of its cars inside the top 10 last season.

SLEEPER PICK: 
Daniel Suárez | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 60-1
The record book will show that Suárez finished 25th last season at Michigan, but he did pace the field for 33 laps. He has a pair of top-five finishes in 10 starts here, though both of those came in his lone year of driving a Ford. Suárez is in a hole from a points perspective entering the race and has consecutive finishes outside the top 30 as Trackhouse seems to have lost speed over the summer months. But the season needs to turn around eventually, right? 

SLEEPER PICK: 
Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Dillon doesn’t have many standout performances in recent memory at Michigan, but he did finish 13th last season. With five top-10 efforts, he’s finished inside the top 10 more than 25% of the time in the Irish Hills, and he did get a much-needed top 10 at Richmond. In the series’ most recent high downforce race at Pocono, he was having a respectable run until contact with Tyler Reddick sent the No. 3 car around.

STAY AWAY FROM: 
Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
One would assume Hendrick Motorsports is going to put all of its eggs into the baskets of the Nos. 9 and 48 cars over the next four races as both teams look for a late surge to make the playoffs. Yet it’s been 12 starts since Bowman’s last top-10 effort this season, coming in the first weekend of April at Richmond. The No. 48 car did crack the top 10 last season at Michigan but has struggled to find a grip since returning from injury in May.

STAY AWAY FROM: 
Ross Chastain | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Since Chastain secured his spot into the postseason at Nashville, the No. 1 team has an average finish of 23.4 in the last five races, dropping him to seventh in the championship standings. This might contradict my Suárez sleeper pick as Chastain also led a chunk of the Michigan race in 2022 (29 laps), but I’m staying away from Chastain entering the weekend. 

STAY AWAY FROM: 
Tyler Reddick | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Mistakes have hindered Reddick in his first season with 23XI Racing. Whether it’s the team making an error on pit road or Reddick having a commitment line violation, it’s been a rough summer for the fourth-year Cup driver. Oval tracks with a lot of speed fit into Reddick’s zone and he will likely have a bunch of that this weekend, but the team continues to have mishaps. Reddick also has a best finish of 18th in four starts at Michigan. 

FEATURED MATCHUP: 
Chris Buescher vs. Daniel Suárez
Suárez is listed as one of my sleepers, but I’m not using him this weekend. In fact, Buescher might be a better sleeper, though is the previous weekend’s winner a true sleeper? The odds are Buescher will have another consistent run as he’s been having all season long and outrun the No. 99 team, which has cracked the top 15 just twice over the last seven races in 2023. 

FEATURED MATCHUP: 
Ryan Blaney vs. Kevin Harvick
Harvick might be among the best ever at Michigan, but Blaney is sneaky good at the track, having won there just two years ago. Blaney has top 10s in 50% of his Michigan starts and has led laps in six of his 14 attempts. You can’t bet against Harvick, however, who always finds a way to be near the front of the field at the end of Michigan races. 

FEATURED MATCHUP: 
Harrison Burton vs. Erik Jones 
The 2023 season has been what neither driver has wanted. Burton has a pair of top 10s, matching the total from his rookie season last year. Meanwhile, it’s been a struggle for Legacy Motor Club as it's in a lame duck season before switching to Toyota in 2024. Jones is still the layup pick this weekend, though, as the No. 43 team has four finishes of 11th or better over the last six races. The trajectory of the team is rising. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:
Kyle Busch vs. William Byron
Here’s a battle of the heavyweights. Based on raw speed in 2023, Byron would be the victor. But have you seen Busch’s recent record at Michigan? Before wrecking out early last season, Busch had nine straight top-10 finishes at the track, despite not winning any of those. I’ll still take those numbers for any race.

MY LINEUP: Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Bubba Wallace, Joey Logano, Kyle Larson 

GARAGE: Kyle Busch