Fantasy Fastlane: Getting tricky in Pocono

Toyota has seemingly made Pocono Raceway its home over the past eight years, having won eight of the last 14 races at the track with four different drivers. Last year’s Pocono race was historic in that it was the first time in the modern era that the winner of a Cup Series race was disqualified. As some of you may recall, it had big fantasy implications as Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch dominated that afternoon.

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MUST START: Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 6-1

With the trophy literally taken away from Hamlin last year, he is likely going to have vengeance on his mind this weekend. Since his rookie season in 2006 when he swept the Pocono races, he’s been the ace of the "Tricky Triangle," posting six victories at the track. Technically, he’s crossed the finish line first in three of the past six races, despite having just two checkered flags to show for it. There’s a reason why Hamlin enters the weekend as the co-favorite. 

MUST START: Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 7-1

Larson hasn’t won at Pocono yet, and his first time there in 2014, he didn’t even know how to shift. But his track record at the three-turn track is phenomenal. Larson has been snakebit multiple times at the track, including blowing a tire while leading, entering the final corner in the first race of the doubleheader weekend in 2021. Larson has performed exceedingly well on flat tracks this weekend, so don’t expect that to change this weekend. 

MUST START: Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 10-1

Since winning at Nashville Superspeedway in late June, it’s been a downward spiral for Chastain. Over the last two races alone, he’s lost 60 points to regular-season championship leader Martin Truex Jr. and has dropped to sixth in the standings. The Pocono race last year had a Hamlin/Chastain run-in, where the No. 11 car was on the right side (before the disqualification). Contact was made on a late restart while battling for the lead. Chastain was also fast at Pocono in his one season with Chip Ganassi Racing, so there’s no reason to think he won’t be a contender this weekend.

MUST START: Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 6-1

Pocono is the site of Truex’s breakout win with Furniture Row Racing nearly eight years ago. He hasn’t stopped winning since. Personally, I’m contemplating whether I will use Truex or not. Expect another strong performance at his other home track, as the No. 19 team has proved to be among the championship favorites to this point in the season. My scenario is that I have just two starts with Truex left over the final six races of the regular season and know that I’m going to use him next weekend at Richmond. If you have more than a couple of starts left, certainly use him this weekend.

SLEEPER PICK: Daniel Suárez | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet 

Odds: 25-1

For its long straightaways and hard braking zones, some drivers have said in the past that Pocono races are like a road course, especially when crew chiefs throw in unique strategies. Suárez is plausible on road courses, as his lone Cup win came at Sonoma. He’s also proven to have surprise runs at Pocono, such as finishing runner-up to Kyle Busch in 2018 and placing third last season. Another thing to consider, with the frontrunners allowing to flip the end of the first two stages, the No. 99 car will likely be staying out to receive points as there’s a heck of a mess at the cutline.

SLEEPER PICK: Michael McDowell | View stats

Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford

Odds: 200-1

The odds McDowell has been given to enter this weekend are somewhat disrespectful with how well the No. 34 team has run lately. Will he win at Pocono? Probably not, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he scored a large sum of points, as he’s also in the fight for one of the last couple of spots. The No. 34 team has top-10 finishes in two of the last five Pocono races.

SLEEPER PICK: Erik Jones | View stats

Legacy Motor Club, No. 43 Chevrolet

Odds: 150-1

It’s been a disastrous season for Legacy Motor Club, as the team has just three top-10 finishes across 43 starts. All of those have come from the No. 43 team. Jones is on a streak of four straight top-20 finishes for the first time this season and has consecutive 11th-place finishes at Atlanta and New Hampshire. In that span, he has the fifth-best average finish in the series. Jones is another driver who knows how to wheel a race car around Pocono, with seven top 10s in 11 starts.

STAY AWAY FROM: Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 16-1

With the regular season winding down, it’s getting to crunch time on uses remaining. Logano has been on a recent surge with three top-three finishes over the last six races. But he hasn’t had a top-five finish at Pocono since 2016, 13 starts ago. Even though he’s a former winner at the 2.5-mile track, stay clear of him this weekend.

STAY AWAY FROM: Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 40-1

Could see Bowman being a trendy pick this weekend. Hendrick Motorsports has won two of the last three races at Pocono, including Bowman swooping by Larson after he pounced the wall on the final lap two years ago. Unfortunately for No. 48 team fans, there’s been little to cheer about recently, with Bowman not having a top-10 finish in the last 10 races he’s competed in. Sure, there’s a three-week gap that he was out of the car due to a fractured vertebra, but he hasn't had a top 10 since Richmond, the first week of April.

STAY AWAY FROM: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats

JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet

Odds: 200-1

If you look at the numbers, Pocono is simply not in Stenhouse’s wheelhouse. He’s never experienced a top-10 finish at the “Tricky Triangle” in 19 starts. Even though he’s having a breakout season, the numbers show it will be a rough weekend, with his 22.5 average finish.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Kevin Harvick vs. Bubba Wallace

With outright pace, Wallace in a Toyota should have more than Harvick’s Stewart-Haas Racing Ford, which is an organization that is struggling this season. Wallace notched his first top-five finish with 23XI Racing at Pocono two years ago, while Harvick finally found Victory Lane at the track in 2020. Harvick’s experience is a tease, so stick with Wallace entering the weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Christopher Bell vs. Ross Chastain

Expecting adequate days from both drivers this weekend. Chastain doesn’t have the results to back the performance he’s had over the last three races at the track. Bell, however, has a pair of fourth-place finishes in five starts. Check back Sunday morning, but I’ll give a slight advantage to the No. 20 team.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Alex Bowman vs. Daniel Suárez

Both teams have been inconsistent over the last couple of months. Being 42 points below the cutline, Bowman should still be points racing this weekend. Suárez has a knack for Pocono, though, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he scored another top five, though it’s possible he will start the final stage deep in the field as he will likely be chasing stage points. 

FEATURED MATCHUP: Ryan Blaney vs. Brad Keselowski

Pocono signifies an important step in each driver’s career. For Blaney, it was his first career win in 2017. For Keselowski, it was winning on a bum ankle from a practice crash in 2011 that catapulted him into superstardom. Leaning towards the No. 12 car this weekend, as Blaney has top-six finishes in two of the last three Pocono races. This track will be a big test for RFK.

MY LINEUP: Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain, William Byron, Christopher Bell 

GARAGE: Tyler Reddick