Fantasy Fastlane: Go Championship 4-heavy at Phoenix

After nine months of elite competition, it’s hard to believe the 2024 NASCAR season concludes this weekend at Phoenix Raceway. Another year of fantasy is coming to an end, so if you have any big-name drivers remaining, take no prisoners this weekend. If you want to be sentimental, this could possibly be the last time you pick Martin Truex Jr., as the 2017 Cup champion is retiring from full-time competition. The strategy I have is to use a mix of Championship 4 competitors and drivers who typically perform well in the Sonoran Desert. 

One note for Championship Weekend is fantasy rules have been adjusted from previous championship races. In Fantasy Live only, the Championship 4 drivers will be awarded stage points. On the track, there are still no stage points awarded and its first-to-the-line wins the championship.

MUST START:

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 4-1

This has a similar feel to how the 2023 season ended. Blaney arguably had the best drive of his career last weekend at Martinsville Speedway to win himself a spot into the Championship 4 for the second consecutive season. Blaney is great at Phoenix despite never winning at the 1-mile oval. He has eight consecutive top-10 finishes, with the last six being top fives. He’s got to be the favorite entering the weekend.

MUST START:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 13-2

Logano could give Blaney a run for his money. The No. 22 team won the championship at Phoenix two years ago by winning the race. Team Penske excels at race tracks that have a layout similar to Phoenix: New Hampshire, Martinsville, Gateway, etc. Oh, and crew chief Paul Wolfe had a two-week head start to prepare for Phoenix virtue of Logano’s win in the Round of 8 opener at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Sure, Logano finished 15th in the regular season standings, but it won’t surprise anyone if he hoists the Bill France Cup for a third time on Sunday afternoon. 

MUST START:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 15-2

When you think of tracks that Reddick excels at, Phoenix doesn’t jump off the page. But he did lead a race-high 68 laps (tied with Denny Hamlin) in the spring before dropping to 10th in the finishing order. Two of his three Phoenix starts with 23XI have resulted in top-10 finishes, including a third-place run in the spring of 2023. Don’t sleep on him this weekend to earn his first Cup Series title. 

MUST START:

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 5-1

With how the entire Martinsville race went, the No. 20 team will be left thinking of what could have been if Bell advanced to the Championship 4. After heartbreak in each of the last two championship races, Bell dominated the second half of this year’s spring race at Phoenix, cruising to victory by over five seconds. He also won in the summer at similar flat tracks in New Hampshire and was in position to take the checkered flag at Gateway until he dropped a cylinder.

SLEEPER PICK:

Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 16-1

Chastain became the first non-Championship 4 driver to win the season finale under the current format last year at Phoenix, leading a race-high 157 laps. His numbers in the desert while driving for Trackhouse are stellar, earning four top-10 finishes -- three top fives -- in five races. This is the optimal sleeper pick for the weekend. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 40-1

With how poorly Buescher ran at Martinsville, this might be a questionable pick, but he joins Blaney as the only driver to have two straight top-five finishes at Phoenix entering this weekend. Prior to those two finishes, Buescher had a single top 10 in 15 prior starts. I wouldn’t recommend having him in your starting lineup entering the weekend but keep an eye on how he stacks up in practice and qualifying. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Chase Briscoe | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford

Odds: 35-1

If Stewart-Haas were to have one final signature moment at Phoenix, Briscoe is the guy to deliver. The No. 14 team has four top-10 finishes in the last five Phoenix races, including his first Cup victory in the spring of 2022. Kevin Harvick led the way for SHR at Phoenix, but Briscoe isn’t far off from Harvick’s final years.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 55-1

The 2024 campaign was a successful one for Bowman, scoring a victory at the Chicago Street Race and setting a career high in top-10 finishes (17). He stepped up to the plate and delivered in the playoffs as well, scoring the most points in the Round of 16. But the Arizona native would likely love to end the year anywhere other than Phoenix, despite it being his home track. His bright spot came in 2016, subbing for an injured Dale Earnhardt Jr., when he led 194 laps from the pole. Since then, he has a single top 10 in 13 starts. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 50-1

Wallace’s Phoenix stats aren’t much better than Bowman’s, earning two top-10 finishes in the last 12 starts. He has an average finish of 19.8 at the track and has led only four laps. It’s plausible to think that all 23XI’s eggs will be in Reddick’s basket this weekend, too.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 35-1

This could be one of those sentimental picks, as Busch needs to win at Phoenix to extend his record of winning at least one race in 20 straight years. Unfortunately for Busch, it’s Phoenix and the No. 8 team hasn’t performed well on these types of tracks. His last two Phoenix results with RCR have both resulted in finishes outside the top 20, so don’t bank on the No. 8 car being a good value pick this weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ryan Blaney vs. Joey Logano

It’s logical to believe that the Penske duo are the championship favorites leading into Phoenix. And even though Logano dominantly won the 2022 championship, Blaney’s consistency here is top notch with eight straight top 10s. Logano has been doubted all year, but Blaney is the pick. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

William Byron vs. Tyler Reddick

Byron enters the Championship 4 as a dark horse, though he topped the point standings in the Round of 8. The No. 24 team hasn’t won since early April, but they have advanced to their second straight Championship 4. Meanwhile, Reddick focused primarily on Phoenix while not stressing about Martinsville last weekend. Hendrick Motorsports’ struggles at Phoenix in the spring are concerning with all four of its cars finishing between 14th and 20th. I’m taking Reddick. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Denny Hamlin vs. Kyle Larson

This has been a frequent matchup this year and, surprisingly, neither driver advanced to the Championship 4. With how gut-wrenching it is to be eliminated, the wind may be out of the sails for both drivers. Hendrick has lacked speed at flat ovals, but Larson has nine top-10 finishes in his last 11 Phoenix races, while Hamlin spun battling for the lead in the spring and finished 11th. I’ll give the slight nod to Larson, but Hamlin could be celebrating, as well, if Reddick wins the championship. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ross Chastain vs. Chase Elliott

We pointed out Hendrick’s performance at Phoenix in the spring, while Chastain has continued to be among the best in the field at the track in the Next Gen car. Elliott has four straight finishes outside the top 10 at Phoenix, making this an easy Chastain pick. 

MY LINEUP: Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson

GARAGE: Denny Hamlin