Fantasy Fastlane: Go Ford-heavy at Talladega, as Team Penske leads the way

The middle race in the Round of 12 could be a real pot-stirrer. Talladega Superspeedway is often regarded as a wild-card track with how unpredictable the racing – and draft – can be. Ford has dominated qualifying on superspeedways recently, winning all five poles this season, with Michael McDowell scoring the last four. Team Penske was in command in the series’ most recent drafting race at Atlanta Motor Speedway to open the NASCAR Playoffs, with all three of its drivers winning a stage.

Fantasy players will earn 10 Fan Rewards points each time they set their lineup in NASCAR Fantasy Live. Fan Rewards is a way for registered users on NASCAR.com to earn points toward things like NASCAR tickets, NASCAR merchandise and more. Learn more about Fan Rewards.

MUST START:

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 9-1

While some drivers fear Talladega, Blaney has capitalized at the 2.66-mile oval in recent years. The No. 12 team has won three of the last 10 races, contributing an additional pair of runner-up finishes. He has three top-two finishes in the last four starts, with the lone outlier coming in the spring. No organization works better at superspeedways than Team Penske, and it’s hard to imagine that changing this weekend.

MUST START:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 9-1

Because Team Penske works so well with each other, we might as well throw Logano into the lineup despite some rough recent history at the track. He is the series’ most recent winner at a drafting track at Atlanta, and he is known to be among the most aggressive superspeedway drivers in the field. When it comes to Talladega, Logano is feast or famine. He’s earned a trio of victories, though his most recent trip to Victory Lane was more than six years ago. He also has eight finishes of 17th or worse in the last nine starts. Usually, that would lean towards me saying to “stay away from” the No. 22 car, but Team Penske is the standard at superspeedways.

MUST START:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 9-1

Had Michael McDowell thrown one fewer block on the final lap in the spring, it’s likely Keselowski would have collected another trophy at Talladega. He already has six, which is tied with Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon for second all time at the track, trailing only Dale Earnhardt (10). It’s been a disappointing postseason for the No. 6 team, and getting eliminated early might free up Keselowski even more to chase the win.

MUST START:

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 13-1

Of the four Hendrick Motorsports drivers, Elliott has the best Talladega numbers. He’s earned two victories at the track and is on a run of five straight top-15 finishes, a major accomplishment with the unpredictability that looms there. Maybe more impressively, he knows how to make it to the finish with only three DNFs through 17 starts.

SLEEPER PICK:

Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 20-1

When the playoffs began at Atlanta, it was Cindric who led a race-high 92 laps. He lost track position in the final stage, but still managed a 10th-place finish. All three of Cindric’s stage wins in 2024 have come at superspeedways, and he leads the series in points scored at this type of track this year. He’s flourished at Daytona and Atlanta, but also has a pair of top-10 finishes in five Talladega starts. Ironically, both have come in the last two playoff races held here.

SLEEPER PICK:

Michael McDowell | View stats

Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford

Odds: 25-1

Moving outside of the realm of playoff drivers, look no further than McDowell. The 2021 Daytona 500 champion has a true knack for superspeedway racing, often finding himself towards the front. Winning the previous four superspeedway pole awards has allowed the No. 34 team to race towards the front. He was in contention to win two superspeedway races this season but wrecked out late in each.

SLEEPER PICK:

Todd Gilliland | View stats

Front Row Motorsports, No. 38 Ford

Odds: 50-1

There’s no doubt that the 2024 season has been the best of Gilliland’s young Cup career. He’s shined on superspeedways, particularly when the No. 38 car led a race-high 58 laps at Atlanta in February. But his Talladega numbers shouldn’t get overlooked. In five starts, Gilliland has an average finish of 12.8, with his last four finishes all being 12th or better. Three of those cracked the top 10.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 18-1

Similar to most superspeedway races, this is a good time to not put Larson in your lineup. Granted, with a revamped postseason schedule and the No. 5 car struggling at Kansas, I’ve used Larson just once in the postseason. It’s setting up for a bulk of uses on the back half of the playoffs. Larson has one top-five finish in 19 Talladega starts, and he has placed inside the top 10 just once in the last 13 races.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 28-1

The bulk of Bell’s superspeedway success in recent seasons has come at Daytona and Atlanta. Talladega hasn’t been as kind to the No. 20 team, with an average finish of 21st through nine starts. With a decent points buffer over the elimination line entering Talladega, Bell’s primary focus will be escaping this weekend without much damage.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 25-1

Truex said he will compete in the 2025 Daytona 500, so this won’t be Truex’s final attempt at a superspeedway, but he remains winless through 84 starts at them. The 2017 champion has struggled mightily at Talladega, despite finishing the last 12 races. He has single top-10 finish – a fifth in 2022 – in his last 17 Talladega starts entering this weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUPS:

Daniel Suárez vs. Tyler Reddick

With a ho-hum performance at Kansas, Reddick, the Regular Season Champion, enters Talladega below the elimination line. He won here in the spring and had a celebration he won’t soon forget. Prior to that, he hadn’t finished better than 16th in the previous five Talladega races. Meanwhile, Suárez has flipped the script over the last two seasons at Talladega, scoring three top-10 finishes in the last four races and he’s become lethal at Atlanta. His average finish is worse than Reddick at 19.7, however, so let’s go with No. 45, who rises to the occasion when the pressure ramps up.

Joey Logano vs. Denny Hamlin

Of all playoff drivers, Hamlin has scored the fewest points on superspeedways in 2024. In the five superspeedway races, he has a best finish of 19th in the Daytona 500. His strategy will be the complete opposite from Atlanta, where he hung in the back hoping to avoid a big wreck, only to be in the middle of it on the final lap. With how strong Team Penske is on superspeedways, Logano is the pick.

Chase Elliott vs. Alex Bowman

Bowman’s playoff surge continued at Kansas last weekend and the last two races in the Round of 12 set up well for the No. 48 team. He’s had mixed Talladega results throughout his career, though he finished fifth in the spring. Elliott should be the choice though, because he’s proven he can win on superspeedways.

William Byron vs. Ryan Blaney

Both drivers are great on superspeedways, scoring four wins apiece. Byron has yet to slip through to Victory Lane at Talladega, however, while this is among Blaney’s best tracks. And if you haven’t figured it out by now, I’m big on Penske this weekend. That same strategy worked out well at Atlanta last month.

MY LINEUP: Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski Chase Elliott, Austin Cindric

GARAGE: Michael McDowell