Fantasy Fastlane: Going all in on championship drivers in Phoenix

Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM (as of Thursday).

With the championship race officially here, here’s a reminder: Stage points will not be awarded to the playoff drivers in alignment with official NASCAR season scoring rules. For instance, last year, Kevin Harvick and Ryan Blaney tallied the most points, ahead of the Championship 4 drivers.

MUST START:
Ross Chastain | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 4-1
Half a week has gone by and Chastain is still the talk of the town after executing his last-lap hoorah at Martinsville to squeak into the Championship 4 this weekend at Phoenix. Of the four championship contenders, it was Chastain who had the best finish in the spring race, placing second in the desert. If he can repeat that performance this weekend, it's plausible to think he will be the Cup Series' next champion.

MUST START:
Christopher Bell | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 13-4
In the last month alone, Bell has had two signature walk-off moments, being down 33 points heading into Martinsville and 45 markers below the cutline before the Charlotte Roval. Bell is capitalizing on his late-season surge. Many people think Phoenix will race similar to New Hampshire in July. And who won that race? The No. 20 car. Bell has proven to be cool under pressure, so don't think this moment will be too big for the third-year driver.

MUST START:
Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1
While Larson isn't battling for a drivers' title, he's still in the fight for the owners' championship. And the No. 5 team is the defending winner of this race. Before blowing an engine in the spring, Larson had six straight top 10s at Phoenix, with four being inside the top five. He also has some momentum, coming off consecutive top-five efforts at Homestead and Martinsville.

MUST START:
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 18-1
Having the record of nine triumphs at Phoenix, Harvick has mastered the 1-mile track. Since the fall 2013 race, the 2014 champion has 18 straight top-10 finishes, tied for the most in series history at one track (Dale Earnhardt and Richard Petty). You could do much worse than choosing the No. 4 team, and with Rodney Childres back on the pit box this weekend, the team could end the year strong.

SLEEPER PICK:
Chase Briscoe | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 33-1
Let’s not forget who won the spring race at Phoenix; it was Briscoe. And though he didn't make the Championship 4 cut, the No. 14 team has peaked at the right time. Since Texas, Briscoe has five top-10 efforts in the last six races. In the 29 races before this season, he had four such results.

SLEEPER PICK:
Brad Keselowski | View stats
RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 80-1
The majority of the 2022 season has been a slump for Keselowski, but his No. 6 team has turned up the wick in recent weeks. It started with a strong run at Bristol, leading north of 100 laps. At Homestead, he scored his first top five as a driver-owner. On Sunday, he took the checkered flag in fourth before being disqualified for his car not meeting the minimum weight. He's never won at Phoenix, but he's always competitive and nearly missed out on the 2020 championship at the track.

SLEEPER PICK:
Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
It will be six weeks this weekend since Bowman last sat in his No. 48 car. But he will make his awaited return to his home track in the desert. When thinking of Bowman and Phoenix, all signs reflect to 2016, when he led 194 laps while filling in for Dale Earnhardr Jr. That's his lone top 10 in 14 starts, but it's Greg Ives' last race as a crew chief, so you know they'll want to go out on top.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 40-1
Busch has had a dismal homestretch in his final season with JGR. At Martinsville, Busch fell to last and lost a handful of laps in the opening stage on sheer speed. Abnormal, yes, and it's tough to see that changing around this weekend in his final race with the team and M&M's.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 33-1
Truex has been very hit-or-miss throughout the season despite finishing fourth in the regular season championship. He's been that way in the postseason, too, having made multiple mistakes as a team. Phoenix has never been Truex's best track -- though he did win there in the spring of 2021 -- and he crashed in the spring.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Austin Cindric | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 150-1
Since getting knocked out of the playoffs, Cindric has had a tough go at it in the last month, with a best finish of 19th. In the spring, he finished 24th in his first Cup race at Phoenix and he hasn't had a top-10 finish on a non-road course or superspeedway since Nashville in June.

MY LINEUP: Ross Chastain, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Kevin Harvick, Chase Elliott

GARAGE: Joey Logano

FEATURED MATCHUP: Chase Elliott vs. Ross Chastain

These two drivers are on opposite sides of the spectrum entering the championship race. Chastain is on a wave of momentum from his last-lap pass at Martinsville, while Elliott has struggled in the postseason with just three top 10s. Still, Elliott should be the favorite here, as he's always a threat. Plus, this is Elliott’s third straight Championship 4 appearance, so he doesn't have the jitters to get out of the way.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Joey Logano vs. Christopher Bell

For all the experience that Logano has at Phoenix, Bell has proven to be clutch in the last two cutoff races, overcoming the two largest walk-off wins in postseason history (-33 both times). The momentum is rolling with the No. 20 team, so give him a small advantage. Entering the week, my choice for who was going to win the title was between these two.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Ryan Blaney vs. Denny Hamlin

Blaney doesn't have a victory at Phoenix, but has four top-five finishes in the last seven races. He might be worth considering starting on your lineup. Same goes for Hamlin with three top fives in his last four starts. Because the No. 12 car spent a race-high 143 laps out front in March, he's my choice.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Kyle Larson vs. Kyle Busch

Who would have thought this would be the easiest matchup of the weekend? Larson is battling for the owner's championship, while Busch will be competing in his final race for Joe Gibbs Racing and running the Mars, Incorporated colors. Martinsville last weekend was arguably Busch's worst race even running a JGR car, going five laps down in the first stage. Larson is the easy choice.