Fantasy Fastlane: Good mix of playoff, non-playoff options for Charlotte Roval lineups

The reconfigured Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval is sure to throw a curveball this weekend in the Round of 12 elimination race. The changes include a hairpin Turn 7 – similar to the design of Turn 1 at Circuit of The Americas – transitioning into the Charlotte oval. The frontstretch chicane will feature a sharper apex. This is important to note because it could lead to a complete overhaul in your fantasy lineup after practice if some drivers don’t adjust well to the layout in an extended practice session on Saturday. 

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MUST START:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 11-1

Early on in the Next Gen era, Reddick was the new road-course king. That adage has faded however, as he hasn’t won on a road course in the last nine races, dating back to COTA in the spring of 2023. Reddick won the pole in convincing fashion for last year’s Charlotte Roval, but needed to chase points instead of the win. Entering the elimination race with a 14-point buffer, Reddick will need to earn points again this year, but he should have the speed to maneuver through the field.

MUST START:

AJ Allmendinger | View stats

Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet

Odds: 8-1

The depth of quality road course competitors in the Cup Series is an embarrassment of riches. Yet Allmendinger might be the best in the young history at the Charlotte Roval. Allmendinger is undefeated in four Xfinity Series starts and could improve on that again this weekend. He won last year’s Cup race as well, leading a race-high 46 laps. If Allmendinger gets out front, he will be hard to pass.

MUST START:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 12-1

Whoa, another non-Playoff driver in your starting lineup? Absolutely. Buescher is an elite road-course racer who finally reached Victory Lane last month at Watkins Glen International. And remember, that was the first postseason race in history that non-playoff drivers swept the top five positions. Buescher has finished 11th or better in 14 of the last 15 road course races and has an average finish of 5.3 in the last three Charlotte Roval races.

MUST START:

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 18-1

Sure, you could throw either Chase Elliott or Kyle Larson in as a must-start based on their prior victories at the Charlotte Roval. But Bowman has top-10 efforts in all five of his starts (he didn’t compete in the 2022 race). Those standout performances give Bowman a 6.4 average finish here. He’s still an underrated road-course driver, despite winning the Chicago Street Race earlier this season. Sitting 26 points above the elimination line, it’s possible the No. 48 team chases points in the first two stages, so qualifying will be a premium.

SLEEPER PICK:

Shane van Gisbergen | View stats

Kaulig Racing, No. 13 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-2

The last time the Cup Series went to a new road course – a street course – it was van Gisbergen who upset the Cup field in his first career start. Since then, van Gisbergen’s road-course talent has been on full display, and he nearly won last month’s Watkins Glen race. The third Kaulig Racing car will solely be chasing the trophy, so the most points you’d probably score with SVG is 40. But if you use William Byron’s philosophy, that’s the most points a driver can typically score with stage breaks at the Roval.

SLEEPER PICK:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 40-1

Logano is in a unique position entering this weekend’s event. He’s 19th in points and, realistically, he’s probably the only driver below the elimination line that could point his way in with complete chaos expected. So, will the No. 22 team chase the win or stage points? We don’t know yet, but the two-time Cup champion is solid at the Charlotte Roval, scoring five top-10 finishes in six starts with an average finish of 8.7.

SLEEPER PICK:

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 16-1

Only five races remain for Busch to extend his record of having at least one victory for 20 straight seasons. The No. 8 team has brought more speed to the race track in recent weeks and been in contention to win multiple races. Its had plenty of recent success on road courses, winning twice with Reddick in 2022 and Busch has four top fives in 10 road course starts for RCR. Dating back to 2021, Busch has three straight top fives at the Roval.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

Odds: 45-1

No driver benefited more from a 20-something-car pileup at Talladega more than Hamlin. The points swung in his favor from being 17 points below the elimination line to 30 points above at the end of the race. He might need every one of those points to advance to the Round of 8, however. Hamlin has a single top-10 finish in six Roval starts, and he wrecked out of last year’s race. Hamlin has struggled to put full road-course races together in the Next Gen car. But with the races coming up in the playoffs, have the No. 11 car at the ready.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Daniel Suárez | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet

Odds: 20-1

Mathematically, Suárez could still race his way into the Round of 8 on points. Realistically, don’t think about using the No. 99 car in your lineup this weekend. Whether it’s a power steering issue or lack of speed, Suarez has an average finish of 27th in six Roval starts. This number is astounding because Suárez is a quality road racer.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Michael McDowell | View stats

Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford

Odds: 16-1

You might flirt with putting McDowell in your lineup this weekend, but the numbers say not to. While he is always competitive when turning left and right, the Roval has been a hindrance for McDowell. In six starts, he has an average finish of 22.8, with three finishes outside the top 25. Should McDowell have a standout Saturday, we might need to rethink this strategy for Sunday, but for now hold off.

FEATURED MATCHUPS:

Austin Cindric vs. Chase Briscoe

In five combined Cup starts between these two Ford drivers, Briscoe has the best finish (ninth in 2022). The other four finishes have been outside the top 20. Both are in must-win scenarios this weekend to advance to the Round of 8. I’d give Briscoe the advantage based on last month’s Watkins Glen performance, where he was the best of all playoff drivers.

Joey Logano vs. Daniel Suarez

As we’ve noted, Logano is quite stellar at the Charlotte Roval, whereas Suárez has underachieved. Both could advance in the playoffs on points, but given it’s Tyler Reddick and Chase Elliott they are chasing, a win might be needed. Give me the No. 22 car.

Chase Elliott vs. Tyler Reddick

Oof, this is a brutal matchup. Elliott is the only driver to have multiple victories at the Roval, but it’s Reddick who has finished better than Elliott in three straight races here. I like those odds.

Alex Bowman vs. Christopher Bell

Many would think that Bell, the 2022 winner, would be a surefire pick in this matchup. But Bowman has been the most consistent driver in the series at the Roval and usually shines on road courses. This could change depending on where each driver qualifies, but entering the weekend, I’ll take Bowman.

MY LINEUP: Tyler Reddick, AJ Allmendinger, Chris Buescher, Alex Bowman, Ty Gibbs

GARAGE: Chase Elliott