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Fantasy Fastlane: Goody’s Fast Relief 500
By RJ Kraft | Published: October 25, 2016 15
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the outlook for the top drivers as well as two sleepers and two value plays based on NASCAR Fantasy Live prices. NASCAR.com fantasy expert RJ Kraft breaks down the drivers you want in your lineup and which drivers you want to avoid for this week.
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Jeff Gordon
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 ChevroletLearn more about Gordon
Fantasy Live price: $23.25
Fastlane forecast: The defending race winner has been a master at Martinsville with nine wins, 3,779 laps led (most all-time there) and is tops among active drivers in driver rating (119.5) and average finish (6.8). The veteran is well worth the play in his last start in the No. 88.
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Jimmie Johnson
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 ChevroletLearn more about Johnson
Fantasy Live price: $26.00
Fastlane forecast: Johnson has eight wins at Martinsville. Despite a recent cold stretch, he's finished outside the top 12 just three times there. In loop data, Johnson has led the most laps (2,575) and holds the second-best driver rating (117.8). Build around the 48.
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Carl Edwards
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 ToyotaLearn more about Edwards
Fantasy Live price: $26.00
Fastlane forecast: Edwards has fared well at short tracks but Martinsville has befuddled him for much of his career – with his worst average finish among non-restrictor-plate tracks. His lone top 10 in the last nine races there came in the spring. Others with JGR offer more value.
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Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 ToyotaLearn more about Hamlin
Fantasy Live price: $26.50
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has long been stout on the short tracks. The JGR driver has five wins at Martinsville – his most at any track. In the loop data era, Hamlin has led the third-most laps (1,315) and holds the third-best average finish (9.5) in the field. Denny is a solid play.
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Matt Kenseth
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 ToyotaLearn more about Kenseth
Fantasy Live price: $26.75
Fastlane forecast: In 33 starts at Martinsville, Kenseth is winless—one of five tracks at which he has not won. He has had an uptick in performance since joining JGR with 392 laps led (of his 465 at the track). Kenseth shouldn't be your lead dog, but is a solid complement.
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Brad Keselowski
Team Penske, No. 2 FordLearn more about Keselowski
Fantasy Live price: $27.00
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has run hot and cold at Martinsville over the last nine starts there. He has six top 10s but also has three finishes of 31st or worse. (Those three finishes have come in the last five races.) It's a high price to pay for a real wild card.
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Joey Logano
Team Penske, No. 22 FordLearn more about Logano
Fantasy Live price: $27.25
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's winner has been on the pole for three straight races at Martinsville. In his last five races here, Logano has 435 laps led—the most in that stretch. On short tracks this year, he's finished no worse than 11th. Consistency makes Logano solid.
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Martin Truex Jr.
Furniture Row Racing, No. 78 ToyotaLearn more about Truex
Fantasy Live price: $27.50
Fastlane forecast: Despite two top 10s in his last three Martinsville starts, the Virginia track holds his second-worst average finish (21.2) among active tracks. The speed has been there all year, but the overall numbers at the track suggest it's best to look elsewhere.
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Kyle Busch
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 ToyotaLearn more about Kyle Busch
Fantasy Live price: $27.75
Fastlane forecast: The spring race winner dominated to the tune of 352 laps led to win a Grandfather Clock at Martinsville. Busch has six top fives in his last 11 starts here and the fourth-best driver rating (98.8) in the loop data era. The 2015 champ is a good buy.
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Kevin Harvick
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 ChevroletLearn more about Harvick
Fantasy Live price: $28.25
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has one win at Martinsville. In his last three starts at 'The Paperclip,' Harvick has led 264 laps. Despite the Virginia short track being one of his worst based on average finish (15.9), expect the 2014 champion to be in the mix for the win.
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SLEEPER PICK
Tony Stewart
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 ChevroletLearn more about Stewart
Fantasy Live price: $17.00
Fastlane forecast: The three-time Martinsville winner has some strong loop data entering his final start at the short track. 'Smoke' holds the fourth-best average running position (11.6) and fourth-most laps led (870).
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SLEEPER PICK
AJ Allmendinger
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 ChevroletLearn more about Allmendinger
Fantasy Live price: $15.75
Fastlane forecast: A runner-up in the spring race, Allmendinger has six top-11 finishes in his last eight Martinsville starts. The 47 camp has shown speed in recent weeks, making 'Dinger an intriguing play.
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VALUE PLAY
Chris Buescher
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 FordLearn more about Buescher
Fantasy Live price: $10.75
Fastlane forecast: The rookie holds an average place differential of +7 in two starts at Martinsville. Buescher has made steady gains in recent months and offers upside at a low price.
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VALUE PLAY
Matt DiBenedetto
BK Racing, No. 93 ToyotaLearn more about DiBenedetto
Fantasy Live price: $5.50
Fastlane forecast: Both of DiBenedetto's top-20 finishes this year have come at short tracks. At Martinsville, he has an average place differential of +8 in three starts at the 0.526-mile track. Nice value to fill out the roster.