Fantasy Fastlane: Hendrick Motorsports’ Dover dominance predicted to continue

Since the turn of the century, Hendrick Motorsports has collected 16 Miles the Monster trophies with 11 of those coming from Jimmie Johnson. The four-car powerhouse enters the weekend with consecutive wins at the track from Alex Bowman (who won't be racing at Dover after suffering a broken vertebra in a sprint-car race earlier this week) and Chase Elliott. Between its four drivers, the organization has combined to win four of the last seven Dover races, with Kyle Larson's triumph coming when he was still with Chip Ganassi Racing. Nonetheless, those four cars will likely be bullets on Monday, even with Josh Berry -- the defending Xfinity Series winner at the track -- driving the No. 48 Chevrolet. Fantasy players will earn 10 Fan Rewards points each time they set their lineup in NASCAR Fantasy Live. Fan Rewards is a way for registered users on NASCAR.com to earn points toward things like NASCAR tickets, NASCAR merchandise and more.

MUST START: Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 5-1
In two races at Dover since joining Hendrick Motorsports, Larson has led 282 of 800 laps completed with top-10 finishes in both outings. His success at the 1-mile track predates his time at HMS, as one of his six career wins for Chip Ganassi Racing came in 2019 at Dover. In four of his 14 starts, he's led 135-plus laps and has an overall average finishing position of 6.9.

MUST START: Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 13-2
Dover is a physical track for drivers, so there could be a small cause for concern for Elliott's competitiveness this weekend after his leg injury. But that goes out the window when you see how well the 2020 champion gets around the Monster Mile. Even with two DNFs -- an engine failure and early crash -- Elliott has a 9.8 average finish in 12 Dover starts. It's also the only non-superspeedway oval that he's recorded multiple wins at (2018, 2022).

MUST START: Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 14-1
The leading candidate among teams that can compete with Hendrick this weekend is Joe Gibbs Racing, and Truex has been the best of its drivers at Dover in recent memory. Since joining JGR in 2019, Truex has a victory and three runner-up finishes in six starts at the Monster Mile. Last season, he was running in the top five when he had contact with Ross Chastain on the final lap that sent him back to 12th in the finishing order.

MUST START: Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 11-1
With Bowman ruled out for this weekend’s race (and at least two more events after Dover), Harvick filled his slot of drivers to start at Dover. Since joining SHR in 2014, Harvick has been an automatic fixture at the front of the field at the "Monster Mile," leading more than 200 laps in four different races. The No. 4 car has eight consecutive top 10s at Dover, with a pair of victories.

SLEEPER PICK: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 60-1
For whatever reason, Stenhouse is reputable on concrete track surfaces. Last season, he had a surprise runner-up finish at Dover, and the Bristol concrete is his favorite track on the schedule. Stenhouse has top 10s in two of his four Dover starts with JTG Daugherty and is in the midst of his best season with the team, including his Daytona 500 win, with an average finish of 14.2 through 10 races.

SLEEPER PICK: Chris Buescher | View stats
RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 35-1
Going off Buescher's stats at Dover, this could be a risky choice. The Texan has an average finish of 21.1 on the concrete in 12 starts. However, Dover was Buescher's launching pad for success in 2022, when he earned his first-ever NASCAR pole and finished the race in eighth. Buescher is the most recent winner on Bristol's concrete surface, which is a half-mile version of Dover.

SLEEPER PICK: Daniel Suarez | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 45-1
Suarez started off his career at Dover white-hot with top 10s in his first four starts at the track. Since then, he's cooled off, but does have finishes of ninth and 14th at the "Monster Mile" since joining Trackhouse Racing. The No. 99 team needs to get back on track with finishes outside the top 15 in five of the past six races this season.

STAY AWAY FROM: Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 22-1
Logano is among the best drivers to have never won at Dover, and it was this race last year that was a turning point for the No. 22 team after a horrendous run. Team Penske lacked speed as a whole, and Logano finished four laps down. After the race, he had tough conversations with Paul Wolfe about where the team stood, and they went on to win the next week. There hve been races this season that he's been off, too, so I'd tend to lay low on Logano this weekend.

STAY AWAY FROM: Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 22-1
For what it's worth, each of the last two weeks drivers who have historically run mediocre at the given track have won the race. Blaney was a tick better than his teammate Logano last season at Dover, finishing three laps down. In 12 Dover races, he has an average finish of 19.5 with two eighth-place finishes, which are his lone top 10s at the venue. The last of those came in 2018.

STAY AWAY FROM: Chase Briscoe | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 35-1
Ever since Briscoe broke the middle finger on his left hand, he has been on a tear. He has three straight top-five finishes, the longest streak of his career. Dover, meanwhile, is a different animal and Briscoe expressed concern last weekend about how he will react to the pain this weekend. It could be a tough weekend ahead for the former Xfinity Series winner at Dover.

FEATURED MATCHUP:
Ross Chastain vs. Chase Elliott
Expect solid weekends from both drivers, as they combined to lead 159 of 400 laps last season. But based solely on experience and success at Dover, Elliott should place ahead of Chastain this weekend. Still, I have both drivers available to use, thinking that they will be among the pre-weekend favorites.

FEATURED MATCHUP:
Ryan Blaney vs. Brad Keselowski
This is an interesting matchup because neither driver has had an abundance of success at Dover. Keselowski has a win that came more than 10 years ago, and Blaney is currently on a seven-race skid outside the top 10. Arguably, the No. 6 car has been the best Ford in the field this season, so the slight advantage goes to Keselowski.

FEATURED MATCHUP:
Christopher Bell vs. Kevin Harvick
Like the Chastain vs. Elliott matchup, both drivers are available in my lineup. Ever since Harvick joined Stewart-Haas, you know what you're likely going to get from him at Dover: consistency. He rides a streak of eight straight top 10s at Dover into the weekend. Bell, though, has been the model of consistency in 2023 and leads the regular-season championship standings. Entering the weekend, the slim advantage goes to the No. 4 team.

MY LINEUP: Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick
GARAGE: Christopher Bell