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Fantasy Fastlane: Hollywood Casino 400
By RJ Kraft | Published: October 10, 2016 15
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the outlook for the top drivers as well as two sleepers and two value plays based on NASCAR Fantasy Live prices. NASCAR.com fantasy expert RJ Kraft breaks down the drivers you want in your lineup and which drivers you want to avoid for this week.
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Jimmie Johnson
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 ChevroletLearn more about Johnson
Fantasy Live price: $24.50
Fastlane forecast: Johnson has been dialed in so far during the Chase. 'Six-Time' has three Kansas wins, the second-best average finish among active drivers (9.2) and the top driver rating (110.4). Those numbers suggest the good times will keep on rolling.
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Kurt Busch
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 ChevroletLearn more about Kurt Busch
Fantasy Live price: $24.75
Fastlane forecast: The 2004 champ has three straight top-eight finishes at Kansas. On the other hand, he has been up-and-down over the past three months and led just six laps in the past 12 races. The recent Kansas runs make this an interesting option.
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Chase Elliott
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 ChevroletLearn more about Elliott
Fantasy Live price: $25.00
Fastlane forecast: Want a sign of Elliott's growth as a rookie? In his first six races this year at 1.5-mile tracks, he led one lap. In his last two, he's led 178 laps. With the speed he and the Hendrick camp have shown of late, Elliott oozes upside for Kansas.
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Carl Edwards
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 ToyotaLearn more about Edwards
Fantasy Live price: $26.00
Fastlane forecast: Edwards has the third-best average finish (10.6) at Kansas among active drivers and four top 10s in his last six starts there. One concerning stat: His lone top 10 in the past five 1.5-mile track races came with the presumed '17 rules package.
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Joey Logano
Team Penske, No. 22 FordLearn more about Logano
Fantasy Live price: $26.75
Fastlane forecast: Logano is the two-time defending race winner at Kansas and has five top fives in his last six runs there. The 1.5-milers have been Penske's bread and butter in recent years but Logano's lack of laps led (82) at 1.5-milers in '16 suggest to look elsewhere.
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Matt Kenseth
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 ToyotaLearn more about Kenseth
Fantasy Live price: $27.00
Fastlane forecast: Kenseth is a two-time winner at Kansas. In the loop data era, he has led the most laps (644) and holds the second-best average running position (9.93) and driver rating (107.4). This is the right time to buy Kenseth and the 20 team.
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Kyle Busch
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 ToyotaLearn more about Kyle Busch
Fantasy Live price: $27.50
Fastlane forecast: Kansas used to be kryptonite for Busch, but the spring produced his first Sprint Cup win there. Busch's three top fives have all come in the last three races there. He also had five finishes of 30th-or-worse in his 14 starts before that. Trust the recent success.
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Brad Keselowski
Team Penske, No. 2 FordLearn more about Keselowski
Fantasy Live price: $27.75
Fastlane forecast: The 2012 champion is quietly lurking and has nine top 10s in his last 10 races. He has a win at Kansas (in 2011) but just one top five there in his last 10 races. The 2 car has been consistent but lacking laps led to be a truly elite fantasy play.
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Martin Truex Jr.
Furniture Row Racing, No. 78 ToyotaLearn more about Truex
Fantasy Live price: $28.00
Fastlane forecast: Truex had the car to beat here in the spring, leading 172 of 267 laps before late-race trouble hit. His 518 laps led at Kansas are third-most in the loop data era. Despite last week's result (13th), Truex is as solid as it gets on intermediate tracks.
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Kevin Harvick
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 ChevroletLearn more about Harvick
Fantasy Live price: $28.00
Fastlane forecast: In his last six Kansas races, Harvick has a win and three runner-up finishes. He has been out front quite a bit in that stretch – leading 392 laps. Despite heading to Kansas with two finishes of 37th or worse in a row, the 2014 champ is still a solid play.
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SLEEPER PICK
Alex Bowman
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 ChevroletLearn more about Bowman
Fantasy Live price: $16.50
Fastlane forecast: This call is based more on gut since the Hendrick teams have had speed and Bowman is intriguing. There is risk, but the reward could be big.
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SLEEPER PICK
Ryan Blaney
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 FordLearn more about Blaney
Fantasy Live price: $15.75
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has two-straight top 10s in three races at Kansas. The rookie has hit a little bit of a rough patch, making the price well worth the upside.
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VALUE PLAY
Regan Smith
Tommy Baldwin Racing, No. 7 ChevroletLearn more about Smith
Fantasy Live price: $8.25
Fastlane forecast: In his last four starts at Kansas, Smith holds a +16.25 average place differential. That's really good value at this price.
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VALUE PLAY
Brian Scott
Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 44 FordLearn more about Scott
Fantasy Live price: $6.50
Fastlane forecast: Kansas is Scott’s best track on average finish (17.0 in two starts). In addition, he has a +10.5 average place differential in his past two races in '16.