Fantasy Fastlane: Home-field advantage for Trackhouse at Nashville?

MUST START:
Ross Chastain | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 8-1
In his first season with top-tier equipment at the Cup level, Nashville was Chastain's breakout race in 2021 with Chip Ganassi Racing, finishing second. This year, Chastain has elevated his game, and Trackhouse Racing enters the weekend with a boost of momentum after Daniel Suárez winning the series' most recent race at Sonoma. It wouldn't surprise me if this is the race that the No. 1 car dominates.

MUST START:
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
While Byron has led the most laps this season (570), the No. 24 team has just one top-10 finish (ninth at Sonoma) since winning in early April at Martinsville. However, despite a small sample size at Nashville, Byron finished solidly in third last year, and is in need of gaining momentum at the right time with the playoffs approaching.

MUST START:
Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 40-1
Since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2018, Almirola has been consistently toward the front at flat tracks. Last year, he had an upset win at New Hampshire, which was just a few weeks after winning the pole and running inside the top five for the duration of the race at Nashville. Surprise? Maybe, but don't count out the No. 10 team, which had a solid run at Gateway a few weeks back.

MUST START:
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Admittedly, Logano doesn't know what to expect at Nashville; not believing it's comparable to anything the series has run this season. And while this race wasn't one of the few inaugural events the No. 22 team has won over the last two years, he finished 10th in 2021. This could change after practice and qualifying, but that Gateway speed may carry over this weekend.

SLEEPER PICK:
Daniel Suárez | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 28-1
All is right in the world of Suárez and his amigos at the moment, picking up his first win last time out at Sonoma and expecting a contract extension soon. In his first year with Trackhouse, the No. 99 team struggled to find consistency, but did earn a top 10 at Nashville. With an uptick in performance this year, Suárez could turn more heads this weekend.

SLEEPER PICK:
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
At one point in last year's race at Nashville, Stenhouse drove up to second place before dropping to sixth at the checkered flag. Over the course of his Cup career, he's been known to be competitive on concrete surfaces, most recently finishing runner-up at Dover last month.

SLEEPER PICK:
Michael McDowell | View stats
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 350-1
If you were told that McDowell has more top-10 finishes in 2022 than Byron, Almirola, Suárez, Chase Briscoe, Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski, would you believe it? After 16 races, the No. 34 team is ahead of the No. 11 team in points -- yes, a Front Row Motorsports car is ahead of a Joe Gibbs Racing entry. McDowell has quietly been consistent and is having the best year of his career.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
While it feels like Hamlin will eventually get on a roll this season, the No. 11 team has yet to do so, earning just three top 10s in the opening 16 races. The speed has been there, leading the 11th most laps in the series (173), but an average finish of 21.1 -- on pace to be the worst of his career -- is concerning.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
With chatter of Truex's 2023 plans picking up, the No. 19 team hasn't been its typical self in 2022. Thus far, Truex has a best finish of fourth with just one additional top-five result. While those stats aren't spectacular, the No. 19 car has paced the field for just one less lap than Hamlin. Last year, however, Truex was a non-factor at Nashville, spending just nine laps inside the top 10.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Brad Keselowski | View stats
RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Despite picking up his first top-10 finish since the Daytona 500 at Sonoma, Keselowski struggled in the inaugural Cup race at Nashville last season. On a competition level, he's taken a step back this year as a whole -- though he has run solid on the road courses and superspeedways -- so don't expect a big change at Nashville.

MY LINEUP: Ross Chastain, William Byron, Joey Logano, Aric Almirola, Ryan Blaney
Garage: Daniel Suárez