Fantasy Fastlane: Is Tyler Reddick the new road-course king?

For the second time this season, the Cup Series will visit a road course and turn both left and right at Sonoma Raceway (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). This starts a span of four road-course events over the next nine regular season races, including the much-anticipated Chicago Street Course next month.

First up, though, is Sonoma, which featured a first-time winner last season in Daniel Suárez. Since then, Tyler Reddick has stamped his name atop the drivers to beat on road courses. 

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MUST START: Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 5-1

Dating back to Reddick’s first win at the Cup level last year at Road America, he’s won three of the past five road-course races. All of them have come in commanding fashion, such as leading 41 of 75 laps at COTA in March en route to the victory. The only concern for this weekend is Reddick has an average finish of 27th in two Sonoma starts. It’s a small sample size, but this race last year is his lone finish outside of the top 10 in the last eight road-course races

MUST START: Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-2

Prior to Reddick putting together a bunch of wins on road courses, it was Elliott doing the same thing. Seven of his 18 career victories have come when turning left and right, but just two since 2021 when NASCAR implemented a deeper focus on road-course racing. Like Reddick, Sonoma isn’t Elliott’s best road course with an average finish of 13.3. But are you really going to leave out Elliott on a road course when you likely have a bunch of uses left with him? Nah. Plus he’s going to be out for vengeance after his one-race suspension.

MUST START: AJ Allmendinger | View stats

Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet

Odds: 14-1

With five top-five starting positions in his last six Sonoma starts, Allmendinger’s qualifying record is top-tier in Wine Country. He’s still figuring out how to put a full race together, having a best finish of seventh. I consider Allmendinger to be the best road-course racer in NASCAR I’ve ever seen, no matter what he’s driving, so I’m entering the weekend with him in my lineup.

MUST START: Daniel Suárez | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet

Odds: 14-1

It’s hard to believe a year has already passed since Suárez had his big breakthrough win at Sonoma. And though he doesn’t have the same results for a multitude of reasons in the six road course races since last June, Suárez can get it done on these tracks. At COTA, he was a fixture inside the top five until becoming a ping pong ball during the late-race chaos. Would think he’s a factor this weekend.

SLEEPER PICK: Kevin Harvick | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 30-1

Labeling a former Cup Series champion who has 60 career wins, including Sonoma in 2017, as a sleeper seems peculiar. But bettors have Harvick listed with 30-1 odds this weekend, despite having finishes of sixth or better in six of the last seven Sonoma races. Last year, Harvick was a mainstay inside the top five and finished fourth.

SLEEPER PICK: Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 22-1

Last year at Sonoma was oh so close for Buescher. He finished a commanding second to Suárez, his first of six straight top 10s on road courses entering the weekend, which is the longest current streak in the series. Buescher also earned his first Xfinity Series win on a road course at Mid-Ohio in 2014.

SLEEPER PICK: Michael McDowell | View stats

Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford 

Odds: 35-1

With a ninth-place result at Gateway, it seemed like McDowell jumped the gun a week early on what is lined up to potentially be a solid stretch of races of races for the No. 34 team. McDowell is known for his road racing ability and finished third at Sonoma last season, where he recorded four top 10s across the six road course races.

STAY AWAY FROM: Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 35-1

Betting lines have taken notice of Hamlin’s struggles on road courses since NASCAR went to the Next Gen car ahead of the 2022 season. In the seven road races in the Next Gen era, the No. 11 team has a best effort of 13th. While he thought Toyota made gains on road courses at COTA – Reddick won the race – Hamlin still finished 16th.

STAY AWAY FROM: Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 12-1

In the two points races and the All-Star Race since Chastain had a meeting with team owner Justin Marks about his aggressiveness, the No. 1 team has not been itself. Jeff Burton had valuable insight on the NASCAR on NBC podcast this week saying Chastain is adjusting to a new normal. He was efficient on road courses last season, and even won his first race at COTA. But I’m staying clear of Chastain until he can get back on track.

STAY AWAY FROM: Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 25-1

Mark Logano down as another veteran who has been mediocre on road courses in the Next Gen car with an average finish of 18.6. With tracks such as Nashville, New Hampshire and Atlanta on the horizon, save your starts with the No. 22 team.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Kevin Harvick vs. Martin Truex Jr.

It wasn’t long ago that these two drivers ruled Wine Country. Their respective crew chiefs Rodney Childers and Cole Pearn, who has since retired, tried to outduel each other on strategy. But it’s hard to sugarcoat Truex’s struggles on road courses over the last two years, placing 26th at Sonoma last year. This week, it’s an easy choice to go with Harvick.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Chase Elliott vs. Tyler Reddick

Because of the success these two drivers have had on road courses in recent memory, the best bet might be to write their names down and draw out of a hat. All kidding aside, Reddick has upped his game on road courses and dominated at COTA this year in a Toyota, which was believed to be bad with the current braking system on road courses. Reddick put that theory to rest.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Austin Cindric vs. Ty Gibbs

With how quickly Gibbs took to road racing in the Xfinity Series, this is another tossup. Cindric and Gibbs had great battles on road courses in 2021 in the Xfinity Series, and Gibbs got the upperhand more times than not in head-to-head battles. Leaning toward picking Cindric, though, as the No. 2 team is looking for its first top-10 finish since COTA. The No. 2 Ford had a strong fifth-place showing last year at Sonoma.

FEATURED MATCHUP: AJ Allmendinger vs. Ross Chastain

Take what I said above and apply it here. Much of Chastain’s knowledge of how to approach road course racing came from Allmendinger when the two were teammates at Kaulig Racing. Allmendinger is desperate for a top 10, as he has just one in the opening 15 races of the season. Running just three more races last year, he tallied eight.

MY LINEUP: Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, AJ Allmendinger, Daniel Suárez, Kevin Harvick

GARAGE: Chris Buescher