Fantasy Fastlane: It’s postseason time at Darlington

The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs get underway Sunday at Darlington Raceway (6 p.m. ET, USA, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App). Here's a quick reminder for how the final 10 weeks work: Driver uses are reset with a limit of five uses per driver over the next 10 races. Once the championship race at Phoenix rolls around, Championship 4 drivers will not earn stage points for fantasy, in alignment with the NASCAR points system. First up, though, is Darlington, where a good chunk of the postseason drivers run well.  

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MUST START: 

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 5-1

The regular-season champion enters the playoffs tied for the No. 1 seed, and he is also stout at Darlington. The spring race looked like it was on pace for another stomping from the No. 19 team until he spun underneath Ross Chastain while battling for the stage victory in Stage 2. His race snowballed from there. The only concern here is that all three of Truex's Darlington DNFs have been in the last three races. Sounds like he's due for a good run as he's led 145-plus laps in three of the last six Darlington races.

MUST START: 

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 6-1

The fact that Larson has yet to win at "The Track Too Tough To Tame" almost seems criminal. The No. 5 team had an opportunity to win in May, but Larson had a run-in with Chastain on a late restart. Larson has five top-five finishes -- including three runner-up results -- in 11 starts there and has led 715 laps (an average of 65 laps per race). At some point, he must find Victory Lane.

MUST START: 

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 15-2

Since the spring of 2022, Byron has been in contention to win two of the last three Darlington races, and he came up clutch earlier this season to score his first win at the famed race track. The No. 24 car has led laps in the last three Darlington races, including a personal-best 50 in last year's Southern 500. The sixth-year driver is having his breakout season, and he is my pick to win the 2023 championship. I think he's going to kick off the playoffs with a solid run this weekend.

MUST START: 

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 15-2

It wouldn't be surprising if the three-time Southern 500 winner adds a fourth trophy to his collection on Sunday. Historically, Hamlin is among the elite drivers at Darlington as he's phenomenal at saving his tires and finding a little something over long green-flag runs. His average finish at Darlington is a remarkable 7.7 across 22 starts, so it would behoove you to use him this weekend. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-1

Ever since Chastain won at Nashville, the No. 1 team has limped into the playoffs with just one top-10 finish over the last nine races. Was the Trackhouse team trying something different, similar to what teams did during the summer months back in the day? Potentially. Either way, Darlington is among Chastain's best tracks on the schedule, though his average finish of 22.8 would indicate otherwise. He led 93 laps in the spring race before getting into a couple of incidents late, both involving Larson on restarts. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Erik Jones | View stats

Legacy Motor Club, No. 43 Chevrolet

Odds: 28-1

Not sure if a two-time Southern 500 winner qualifies as a sleeper, but Jones is one to watch this weekend. In this race last year, he brought the No. 43 car back to Victory Lane for the first time in more than eight years. Legacy Motor Club is in the process of moving from Chevrolet to Toyota over the offseason, so it's understandable if you don't use Jones. Remember, though, he has an average finish of 12.0 in 11 starts. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats

JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet

Odds: 100-1

Stenhouse qualified for the playoffs for the second time after having his most consistent campaign to date in his 11th full-time season. And while his Darlington statistics don't exactly stand out with an average finish of 23rd and just one top-10 finish, he was among the top 10 throughout the entire spring race and dropped to 13th at the checkered flag. If the No. 47 team can avoid any miscues, he could be a sneaky pick to get into the Round of 12. 

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 17-1

Through attrition, Elliott managed a third-place finish here in May. He ran outside of the top 10, however, for much of the race, scoring zero stage points. Part of the reason why Elliott missed the playoffs is because the No. 9 car hasn’t been up to speed all season, though he typically finishes better than he runs. Certainly, it lacks speed compared to the two Hendrick playoff cars of Byron and Larson. Elliott has an average finish of 17.7 in 11 Darlington starts. 

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 18-1

Since early June at Gateway, Blaney has had a best finish of ninth (three times) in the last 11 regular-season races. Penske has been off on intermediate tracks lately, which Darlington can classify under, though it is its own beast. Blaney's Darlington numbers aren’t ideal either, with just two top 10s in 13 races. One of those did come in May, another ninth-place result.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 28-1

There's no doubt Wallace is going to have a fast car this weekend as Toyota has run extremely well at Darlington recently. He also has consecutive top 10s at the South Carolina track entering the weekend. But those seem to be an anomaly, as seven of his previous eight Darlington finishes were all outside of the top 15. I'm moving away from Wallace this week, but he will likely move into my lineup for Kansas next week.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Denny Hamlin vs. Kevin Harvick

With finishes of sixth or better in 13 of the past 15 Darlington races, Harvick is among the best drivers at Darlington. He's won three times during that span and even finished second earlier this season with a mangled race car. Unless something bizarre happens, Hamlin will have more speed this weekend as the No. 4 team -- and all of Stewart-Haas Racing -- has dipped during the summer months. Hamlin is the pick.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Tyler Reddick vs. Christopher Bell

Reddick did post finishes of second and third, respectively, at Darlington in 2022. But that was with Richard Childress Racing, and this season, the No. 45 team has failed to execute a full race more times than not. You could throw Bell into the same category as he has just one top-five result since winning the Bristol Dirt Race. I do like the No. 20 team this weekend, though I could easily flip-flop following practice and qualifying. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Martin Truex Jr. vs. William Byron

These two drivers had the best regular season in the field and are entering the playoffs tied for the No. 1 spot. Both are already in good positions to advance to the Round of 12 based on their point buffer to the elimination line, but I think Byron might have a little more in the tank this weekend. Again, this could switch if the Toyotas are lights out off the hauler. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Brad Keselowski vs. Ryan Blaney

The resurgence of RFK Racing has been something special to watch over the last couple of months. Without a doubt, the Nos. 6 and 17 teams have overtaken Team Penske as the best Ford cars. Because of that and Blaney's inconsistency, Keselowski is an easy pick this weekend.

MY LINEUP: William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch

GARAGE: Ross Chastain