Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Don’t forget about ‘Dinger at COTA

Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.


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Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 9-4

Fastlane forecast: Elliott's road record is well documented – five wins over the last three-plus years. In his last five road starts, he has four wins and scored no less than 31 points. He comes into this race with three straight top-seven finishes on the season. No doubt he will have a high ownership number, but he is the driver to build around this weekend.

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 9-2

Fastlane forecast: If Elliott is 1A on road-course choices, Truex is 1B. He has four road course wins with three of them coming at Sonoma. His last six road starts have seen him score no worse than 34 points. The catch is how good he is at a number of tracks. We want to keep uses available for three of Charlotte, New Hampshire, Watkins Glen and Michigan, especially after getting burned at Dover last week.

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 8-1

Fastlane forecast: I know what you're thinking. RJ, I have a handful of uses left on Hamlin. And let's be clear, if you have 1-4 uses left, don't consider this. However, if you are sitting on 5-6 uses with Hamlin, he’s a consideration based on his recent road-course stats – the second-best average finish (7.8) in the last six road races, four top fives and the third-most points in that stretch.

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 16-1

Fastlane forecast: Blaney's an underrated road racer. In four of his last six road races, he has scored at least 34 points. The two races he didn't do that were both at the Daytona Road Course. He scored a win at the Charlotte Roval in 2018. With only two 1.5-milers left, there are uses available for YRB at COTA and a few other road courses.

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 18-1

Fastlane forecast: Sunday's top-five finish at Dover extended Byron’s top-10 streak to 11 races. He is a points machine right now as he currently has the second-most points in Fantasy Live. The young star is no slouch on road courses with top 10s in three of his last four starts on that track type. If you have six or seven uses, I'd use him. At three or four uses left, I'd lean toward a save.

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 18-1

Fastlane forecast: When you think road racing, Logano is not one of the first names to pop into your head. Over the last six road races, he has the fourth-most points and four straight top 10s. He also runs better with the 750-HP package that is utilized on road courses. The only must-use tracks left for him are New Hampshire and Michigan.

Kevin Harvick | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 18-1

Fastlane forecast: Harvick has scored the fifth-most points in the last six road-course races and his 8.3 average finish is third-best among series regulars. After a subpar start by his standards, the 2014 champ has found his footing with four straight top-six finishes and an average of 38.5 points in that stretch. If you are holding six or seven uses on him, this is a play to consider.

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 20-1

Fastlane forecast: The second driver to nab multiple wins in 2021 is a worthwhile play on the road courses. In his last six road course races, Bowman has an average finish of 10.0, has not finished worse than 14th, has an average of 29.2 points and no less than 25 points in a race. His inconsistencies this season make him a risk but also mean the uses are there for a play.

AJ Allmendinger | View stats

Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet 

Odds: 28-1

Fastlane forecast: Allmendinger's lone start this season saw him finish seventh at the Daytona Road Course. He has one road course win on his Cup resume and four wins in Xfinity on the road courses. If we had a concern, it's he may pass on stage points since Kaulig isn't a full-time team, but the idea of him as a use-saver given his road success is too much to pass up.

SLEEPER PICK: Kurt Busch | View stats

Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 30-1

Fastlane forecast: We've written quite a bit about the 2004 champion's spring funk of the past two months. He showed signs of snapping out of it at Dover with his best points day in 10 races. While he has just one road-course win in 43 starts, he does have 23 top 10s. Over the last three road-course races, he has the fifth-most points – an average of 35.3 points.

SLEEPER PICK: Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 20-1

Fastlane forecast: Bell won the most recent road-course race in February at the Daytona Road Course. The win marked his first finish inside the top 20 on a road course in the Cup Series. On the downside, he comes into this weekend with four straight finishes outside the top 10 on the season.

SLEEPER PICK: Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 33 Ford

Odds: 22-1

Fastlane forecast: Cindric continues to get his feet wet with select Cup starts, and COTA is the next one. The reigning Xfinity Series champion has four road-course wins in the Xfinity ranks among his 11 victories. With qualifying on tap this weekend, there's some added intrigue to him as a potential play.

SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 100-1

Fastlane forecast: Reddick's early returns on road courses in the Cup Series don't say "play me" – 22.7 average finish in three starts. He has quietly been one of the hotter drivers with five top 10s in his last seven 2021 races with at least 30 points in six of the last seven races. During that stretch, he has nabbed three top 10s with the 750-HP package – the same used at COTA.

SLEEPER PICK: Michael McDowell | View stats

Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford

Odds: 66-1

Fastlane forecast: The 2021 Daytona 500 winner has had some solid road-course runs in his Cup career. He has two top 10s in his last three road-course starts – both coming at the Daytona Road Course. Over the last four road-course races, he has three top 12s and three races with at least 27 points.

STAY AWAY FROM: Kyle Busch | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota

Odds: 14-1

Fastlane forecast: In the last six road-course races, the two-time champion has the 22nd-most points. In the last four road-course races, he has 12 total points – 12. I'd rather be late to the party on KFB turning it around on road courses, especially with a likely fantasy start at Charlotte next weekend.

STAY AWAY FROM: Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet 

Odds: 10-1

Fastlane forecast: Given the likely heavy usage of Larson in recent weeks, this seems like a good spot to sit him. He's a serviceable road racer, but with Charlotte, Atlanta and Michigan on the schedule, we need to make sure the uses are there for those events. Given how he ran at Dover, it's not hard to picture him running well at Nashville as well.

STAY AWAY FROM: Austin Dillon | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet

Odds: 150-1

Fastlane forecast: In 16 road-course starts, Dillon has not finished in the top 10 and has an average finish of 24.8. In his last five road-course starts, his best points race saw him score 18 points. We are looking at the percentages here, and this just isn't something to consider on road courses.


My lineup heading into the weekend: Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Alex Bowman, AJ Allmendinger; Garage: Kurt Busch

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Just missed the cut: Martin Truex Jr. (usage concerns), Kevin Harvick, William Byron (usage concerns), Austin Cindric and Tyler Reddick.


Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 2:30 p.m. ET on FS1. I'll tweet out a brief fantasy update after Sunday morning's qualifying session that begins at 11 a.m. ET – coverage on FS1.



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