Fantasy Fastlane: Joe Gibbs Racing, Team Penske lead way at Loudon

The intensity of the regular season shifts to New Hampshire Motor Speedway this weekend, with just nine races remaining until the playoff grid is set. Many of this year’s bubble drivers have historically run well in the Granite State, while others have struggled. Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske have dominated at the flat, 1-mile oval in recent years and will be the focal point of my lineup. Many of the same characteristics from Gateway can apply to New Hampshire.

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MUST START:

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 9-2

Over the last number of years, New Hampshire has turned into Martin’s Playhouse, where he has dominated races. However, he didn’t break through to Victory Lane until last season, leading 254 of 301 laps. Over the last 10 New Hampshire starts, the 2017 Cup champion has led 83-plus laps on seven occasions. Six of those cracked the 100 laps-led mark, including the first two races in the Next Gen car, where he led 426 of 602 laps completed (70.8%). The No. 19 team needs to get its early season pace back, and there’s a good shot it happens this weekend.

MUST START:

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 9-2

My starts remaining for Bell are running thin, but the No. 20 team is surging now. He’s also an elite competitor at New Hampshire across the three national touring series and is undefeated in three starts in Xfinity Series competition. He won the inaugural Next Gen race at New Hampshire, but he had a chaotic race last season that saw him finish 28th after winning the pole. Think of that as a misstep, and it’s hard to imagine it happening two years in a row.

MUST START:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 16-1

Even when RFK was wrestling with becoming consistently relevant at the front of the field in 2022, Keselowski shined at New Hampshire. In two Next Gen starts at the New England venue, he has an average finish of sixth. The 2012 Cup champion has five consecutive top-10 finishes here, including a 2020 victory, and he’s cracked the top 10 in eight of his last nine races here.

MUST START: 

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 17-2

Joey Logano and the No. 22 team are on the upswing. Team Penske excels at shorter, flat tracks, which New Hampshire certainly falls under. Logano has three top-five efforts over the previous four New Hampshire races and was the best of the rest last year behind Truex. This is a pivotal week for Logano, who has cut the gap to just six points behind the elimination line. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 45-1

The driver Logano is chasing for that final playoff spot is currently Wallace. The No. 23 team’s skid continued last weekend at Iowa as Wallace has just one top-10 finish spanning the last eight races. He flies under the radar at New Hampshire, though, with a pair of top-10 finishes in the first two Next Gen races held here. Toyota is elite at New Hampshire, and Wallace needs to capitalize on the manufacturer’s strength this weekend.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Josh Berry | View stats

Stewart-Haas racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 35-1

For my garage spot, I floated the idea of using Berry and the No. 4 team this weekend. Berry is coming off an exceptional race at Iowa, where he led a career-high 32 laps and finished seventh, his third top-10 finish in the last five races. There are no Cup numbers for Berry to persuade you on this pick, but SHR is always competitive at flat tracks, such as New Hampshire, Martinsville and Phoenix. The team had plenty of speed at Iowa, and Berry capitalized.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 130-1

It's worth mentioning the last time the Cup Series visited a track like New Hampshire, Cindric arguably had the drive of his career en route to the win at Gateway. New Hampshire is a different animal, but as noted earlier, Penske thrives at this type of track. His sample size at New Hampshire is small, so don’t take his average finish of 19th into consideration. Solely base this off Gateway earlier this month.

STAY AWAY FROM:

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 12-1

It's not often you can say that Hendrick Motorsports is vulnerable, but New Hampshire has been a weak link for the team over the last decade. After all, Kasey Kahne was the last Hendrick driver to find Victory Lane at the New England facility ... in 2012. Byron alone has never scored a single top-10 finish at the track in six starts. Sure, he has four top-15 finishes, but this is a week where you can conserve a use for the No. 24 team.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 35-1

There have been plenty of close calls and near misses for Buescher this season. The team hasn’t lacked speed, except for tracks like New Hampshire. Buescher had an abysmal weekend at Gateway and managed a 14th-place finish. Add him to the list of drivers still searching for their first top-10 finish at New Hampshire as he has a best result of 15th (twice) in 10 starts.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 35-1

Over the last five races, Busch’s 2024 season has spiraled out of control. He’s had fast race cars more weeks than not but has let numerous points slip away, whether at fault or not. He’s not thrilled about New Hampshire, which could be considered as the turning point of his tenure at RCR. The team was off in left field last year at New Hampshire, wrecking during qualifying and again just 71 laps into the race. The No. 8 team has only tallied 10 top 10s in the 33 races since that weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ryan Blaney vs. Brad Keselowski

Expect quality performances from both drivers and teams this weekend as they’ve shined in recent years at New Hampshire. Blaney finally got the monkey off his back and won at Iowa, locking himself into the postseason. Keselowski has the edge via two victories at New Hampshire, however, so let’s roll with the No. 6 car. It’s worth noting that Blaney was in position to win at Gateway before running out of fuel coming to the white flag.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Christopher Bell vs. Martin Truex Jr.

This is a battle of Joe Gibbs Racing heavyweights this weekend. In one corner, Bell, who has had a recent upsurge in performance. In the other corner, Truex, who has been the benchmark of the Cup Series at New Hampshire in recent years despite his lone victory last year. The No. 19 team has hit a rough patch in putting good finishes on the board, so Bell is the decisive leader entering the weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Chase Elliott vs. Denny Hamlin

For how much of a weak point New Hampshire is for HMS, Elliott managed a runner-up finish in 2022. Hamlin will be a threat this weekend, winning three races here. It’s also almost impossible to keep the No. 11 team down as Hamlin has had two dreadful races in a row. I'm banking on him rebounding with a good finish this weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. vs. Josh Berry 

The No. 47 team played its hand at strategy at Iowa, trapping a bunch of the field off the lead lap. New Hampshire is another race that can be filled with strategy, and there’s no limit for Mike Kelley as he left Stenhouse out on 100-lap tires at Iowa. Berry is the way to go, however, because New Hampshire drives similarly to a short track, which he excels at. Rodney Childers’ track record of setting up cars at New Hampshire is top notch, scoring three victories with Kevin Harvick and one with Brian Vickers.

MY LINEUP: Martin Truex Jr., Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin

GARAGE: Ryan Blaney