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Fantasy Fastlane: Kevin Harvick needs to win at Bristol
By Dustin Albino | Published: 16 Sep, 2022 16
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Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM (as of Thursday).
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Jacob Kupferman | Getty Images
MUST START:
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 9-1
Let's not shy away from the headline, Harvick is in must-win mode entering Bristol. And the No. 4 team is very capable of doing just that, as it picked up top-two finishes in each of the last two races on the concrete surface, including a commanding win in 2020. Typically, Harvick comes up clutch in must-win races; he's going to need another this weekend.
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 9-1
Let's not shy away from the headline, Harvick is in must-win mode entering Bristol. And the No. 4 team is very capable of doing just that, as it picked up top-two finishes in each of the last two races on the concrete surface, including a commanding win in 2020. Typically, Harvick comes up clutch in must-win races; he's going to need another this weekend.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
MUST START:
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 7-1
Now that the world knows where Busch will be racing in 2023, there's no better place for the No. 18 team to get back in winning form before the year closes out. Busch is an eight-time winner on the Bristol concrete. He likes the place so much that he won the dirt race earlier this season. Busch should always be on your fantasy lineup at Bristol, no ifs ands or buts.
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 7-1
Now that the world knows where Busch will be racing in 2023, there's no better place for the No. 18 team to get back in winning form before the year closes out. Busch is an eight-time winner on the Bristol concrete. He likes the place so much that he won the dirt race earlier this season. Busch should always be on your fantasy lineup at Bristol, no ifs ands or buts.
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Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
MUST START:
Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-1
Certainly, Larson isn't having the same season this year as he did in his first year with Hendrick Motorsports. But beginning at Bristol last fall, the No. 5 team went on to win five of the final eight races of the 2021 season. While it's highly unlikely any team will replicate that performance, Larson has been stout at Bristol since he first raced there door-to-door with Busch in an Xfinity Series car. Expect Larson to be a threat on Saturday night.
Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-1
Certainly, Larson isn't having the same season this year as he did in his first year with Hendrick Motorsports. But beginning at Bristol last fall, the No. 5 team went on to win five of the final eight races of the 2021 season. While it's highly unlikely any team will replicate that performance, Larson has been stout at Bristol since he first raced there door-to-door with Busch in an Xfinity Series car. Expect Larson to be a threat on Saturday night.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
MUST START:
Christopher Bell | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 9-1
Who had Bell being the first driver to clinch a spot into the Round of 12? Likely, not very many people. However, the No. 20 team has been the most consistent car at Joe Gibbs Racing this season. There's no reason to think that doesn't continue at Bristol, as he finished runner-up in the series' most recent visit to a short track.
Christopher Bell | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 9-1
Who had Bell being the first driver to clinch a spot into the Round of 12? Likely, not very many people. However, the No. 20 team has been the most consistent car at Joe Gibbs Racing this season. There's no reason to think that doesn't continue at Bristol, as he finished runner-up in the series' most recent visit to a short track.
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Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK:
Erik Jones | View stats
Petty GMS Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 33-1
It feels like Jones is making this column every week. While I nailed it for Darlington, Kansas, not so much. The No. 43 car was out to lunch last weekend. But never fear, Bristol is here, a place where Jones nearly edged out Busch in his rookie Cup season. In his lone Bristol concrete start in the No. 43 Chevrolet, he finished eighth. Jones has four top-five finishes in nine Bristol races.
Erik Jones | View stats
Petty GMS Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 33-1
It feels like Jones is making this column every week. While I nailed it for Darlington, Kansas, not so much. The No. 43 car was out to lunch last weekend. But never fear, Bristol is here, a place where Jones nearly edged out Busch in his rookie Cup season. In his lone Bristol concrete start in the No. 43 Chevrolet, he finished eighth. Jones has four top-five finishes in nine Bristol races.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK:
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
If you really want to go out on a limb, maybe Stenhouse is your choice. He's helped fantasy players in the past at Bristol, with a pair of runner-up finishes. The inconsistency is still there, though, as he has six straight finishes at Bristol of 20th or worse. But hey, he showed some of that midseason speed last weekend at Kansas before blowing a tire.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
If you really want to go out on a limb, maybe Stenhouse is your choice. He's helped fantasy players in the past at Bristol, with a pair of runner-up finishes. The inconsistency is still there, though, as he has six straight finishes at Bristol of 20th or worse. But hey, he showed some of that midseason speed last weekend at Kansas before blowing a tire.
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Buda Mendes | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK:
Brad Keselowski | View stats
RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 66-1
It's been a year to forget for Keselowski on the race track in his first year as a co-owner of RFK Racing. There is solace in that he placed seventh at New Hampshire and Darlington, two of his better stops on the schedule. That leads to Bristol, where the 2012 Cup champion has three wins in 23 starts. Don't pick him for the win, but see how he ranks in practice and qualifying.
Brad Keselowski | View stats
RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 66-1
It's been a year to forget for Keselowski on the race track in his first year as a co-owner of RFK Racing. There is solace in that he placed seventh at New Hampshire and Darlington, two of his better stops on the schedule. That leads to Bristol, where the 2012 Cup champion has three wins in 23 starts. Don't pick him for the win, but see how he ranks in practice and qualifying.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM:
Daniel Suárez | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
It wouldn't be too surprising to see Suárez have a standout run at Bristol, as he did in the Xfinity Series in 2015. But in three short-track races this year in the Next Gen, he has a best finish of 16th (Richmond spring race).
Daniel Suárez | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
It wouldn't be too surprising to see Suárez have a standout run at Bristol, as he did in the Xfinity Series in 2015. But in three short-track races this year in the Next Gen, he has a best finish of 16th (Richmond spring race).
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM:
Ross Chastain | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Let's stay on that Trackhouse theme. While it doesn't seem plausible that Chastain will lose 26 points to the playoff cutline, Bristol is a good place to get revenge. From what his competition has said during the course of the year, the No. 1 team should be expecting said revenge at some point throughout the playoffs. On the track, Chastain snapped a seven-race skid of finishing outside of the top 15 at Kansas.
Ross Chastain | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Let's stay on that Trackhouse theme. While it doesn't seem plausible that Chastain will lose 26 points to the playoff cutline, Bristol is a good place to get revenge. From what his competition has said during the course of the year, the No. 1 team should be expecting said revenge at some point throughout the playoffs. On the track, Chastain snapped a seven-race skid of finishing outside of the top 15 at Kansas.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM:
Austin Cindric | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Going into Bristol, Cindric holds the final coveted playoff position. However, he's never run a Cup race at the World's Fastest Half-Mile, a track that's typically hard on rookies. The last time Cindric battled on Bristol's concrete, he had an epic finish in the Xfinity Series race with AJ Allmendinger. This time around, the No. 2 team is battling for its playoff lives.
Austin Cindric | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Going into Bristol, Cindric holds the final coveted playoff position. However, he's never run a Cup race at the World's Fastest Half-Mile, a track that's typically hard on rookies. The last time Cindric battled on Bristol's concrete, he had an epic finish in the Xfinity Series race with AJ Allmendinger. This time around, the No. 2 team is battling for its playoff lives.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
MY LINEUP: Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney
GARAGE: Denny Hamlin
GARAGE: Denny Hamlin
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
FEATURED MATCHUP: Bubba Wallace vs. Christopher Bell
While Wallace is on a heater with six top-10 finishes in the last nine races, Bell has been the most consistent Toyota with the Next Gen. Add that on top of his strong performances on concrete tracks in the past, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the No. 20 car battling for the win. Being locked into the Round of 12, Bell has nothing to lose.
While Wallace is on a heater with six top-10 finishes in the last nine races, Bell has been the most consistent Toyota with the Next Gen. Add that on top of his strong performances on concrete tracks in the past, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the No. 20 car battling for the win. Being locked into the Round of 12, Bell has nothing to lose.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
FEATURED MATCHUP: Kevin Harvick vs. Kyle Busch
Two years ago, this was the battle for the win. That shouldn't be surprising, given Harvick and Busch are two short-track aces. Both drivers enter the cutoff race below the cutline. And while it's realistic each can race his way in, Harvick has to win. I like Harvick in pressure-packed situations.
Two years ago, this was the battle for the win. That shouldn't be surprising, given Harvick and Busch are two short-track aces. Both drivers enter the cutoff race below the cutline. And while it's realistic each can race his way in, Harvick has to win. I like Harvick in pressure-packed situations.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
FEATURED MATCHUP: Chase Briscoe vs. Austin Dillon
Speaking of drivers racing for a playoff spot, Briscoe and Dillon are the other two drivers below the cutline. Based on experience, Dillon gets the nod, despite recording top-10 finishes in 20% of his Bristol starts. If this was the Bristol dirt race, Briscoe would be my choice.
Speaking of drivers racing for a playoff spot, Briscoe and Dillon are the other two drivers below the cutline. Based on experience, Dillon gets the nod, despite recording top-10 finishes in 20% of his Bristol starts. If this was the Bristol dirt race, Briscoe would be my choice.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
FEATURED MATCHUP: Ross Chastain vs. Tyler Reddick
Over the last few weeks, Chastain's team has found some of the speed it had lost. Still, he has one top-15 result in the last eight races. Reddick needs a strong run after blowing a tire at Kansas; he's also won at Bristol in the Xfinity Series. Going with the No. 8 Chevrolet this weekend. Wouldn't it be fitting to see him win after it was announced he will not return to the No. 8 car in 2023?
Over the last few weeks, Chastain's team has found some of the speed it had lost. Still, he has one top-15 result in the last eight races. Reddick needs a strong run after blowing a tire at Kansas; he's also won at Bristol in the Xfinity Series. Going with the No. 8 Chevrolet this weekend. Wouldn't it be fitting to see him win after it was announced he will not return to the No. 8 car in 2023?