Fantasy Fastlane: Kyle Busch, Joey Logano need to pounce at WWTR

Just like that, the NASCAR Cup Series is more than halfway through the 2024 regular season. With World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway looming, multiple drivers near or below the playoff elimination line need to capitalize on recent success at the 1.25-mile, egg-shaped oval. For reference, some drivers have said in the past that Gateway correlates to New Hampshire or Phoenix, so keep that in mind when you create your lineup. 

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MUST START: 

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 15-1

With an up-and-down season for Busch, it feels a little ambitious to label him as the first driver you should start. But goodness, if you’ve paid attention to the first two Cup races at Gateway, Busch was always in the mix. He led the most laps in both races and dominated last year’s overtime event from the pole position en route to his third – and most recent – win with RCR. Gateway is just over the threshold of being a short track, an area where RCR has struggled for the past two seasons. 

MUST START: 

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 14-1

You could almost copy and paste what was implied about Busch and put it here for Logano. Nobody could imagine Logano sitting 17th on the playoff grid, 30 points to the south after 14 races. Fortunately, Logano has run quite well at Gateway, scoring 44 points apiece in the two Gateway races. If the No. 22 team can replicate that performance, it would be the second-most points Logano has scored in a race this season (49, Richmond). 

MUST START: 

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 17-2

By using Truex as my garage pick last weekend at Charlotte, it opens him up as usable this weekend at Gateway. With limited starts remaining, it would have been difficult to use him three straight weeks between Charlotte and – spoiler – Sonoma next week. But the No. 19 team runs well at these types of tracks, posting an average finish of 5.5 in the two Gateway races. Truex also crushed the field at New Hampshire in 2023. 

MUST START: 

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 17-2

Over the last month-and-a-half, Blaney has plummeted eight spots in the regular season championship standings to 12th. For the first time since the second race of the year, he’s not the top Ford driver in the standings. Penske, in general, exceeds at flat tracks, which Gateway certainly is. Blaney has an average finish of fifth in the two Gateway races and needs a bounce-back week from Stage 2 exits in the last two points-paying races. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Michael McDowell | View stats

Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford

Odds: 250-1

McDowell might not be worth a start this weekend, but with 10th-place finishes in two of the last three races, the No. 34 team seems to have put its misfortune behind them. During the inaugural Gateway race, McDowell led 34 laps but dropped to 18th in the finishing order. Last year, he cut that number in half to ninth. The team also has the most speed it’s ever had. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Daniel Suárez | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet

Odds: 100-1

Another driver looking to turn their season around is Suárez. Aside from winning at Atlanta and playing the right strategy at Texas, it’s been a lackluster season for the No. 99 team. The good news is that he was in contention last year at Gateway, scoring stage points in both stages and finishing seventh. That team would take a seventh-place finish, as it enters with an average finish of 19.7 through 14 races. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Josh Berry | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 60-1

Now that the future of Stewart-Haas Racing is clear, the uncertainty of Berry’s future has come to the forefront. One of the key free agent acquisitions will now be crew chief Rodney Childers, who knows how to set up a fast car at Gateway. Last year, Kevin Harvick earned stage points in both stages and cracked the top 10 in the finishing order. In 2022, he lost the brakes while contending near the front of the field. Berry knows how to get around tracks comparable to Gateway, and the No. 4 team is coming off a 10th-place finish at Charlotte. 

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 12-1

This could come back to bite because Keselowski and the entire RFK Racing organization are hitting on all cylinders. If Mother Nature held off for another 10ish laps during the Coca-Cola 600, the storyline entering Gateway would have likely been Keselowski winning the last two points-paying races. Instead, he finished runner-up, which he’s done three times in the last six races. Gateway has been an outlier for a surging No. 6 team, entering this weekend with an average finish of 24th in the two races.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 16-1

It might be best to stay away from Hendrick Motorsports this weekend, knowing their uses will come in handy later in the offseason. Elliott was serving a one-race suspension at Gateway last year, but Corey LaJoie finished 21st in the No. 9 car, the exact position Elliott finished in 2022. Though this weekend’s race is the intermediate package, HMS’ biggest flaws seem to be with little banking.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Chase Briscoe | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford

Odds: 60-1

Briscoe has always found it coincidental that he’s put together many solid finishes on flatter tracks because it’s been hard for him to figure out. Gateway, however, is a track he’s still trying to conquer, as he has an average finish of 29th, despite winning the pole award for the inaugural race. Briscoe needs to minimize the points lost this weekend, entering 11 markers below the elimination line. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Christopher Bell vs. Ryan Blaney

By winning the Coca-Cola 600, Bell put the previous two months, which were filled with a lot of missed opportunities for the No. 20 team, behind him. Blaney is on a similar streak, with four finishes of 20th or worse in the last six races. Bell raced in the back half of the top 10 in the first two Gateway races, whereas the No. 12 car led laps. Blaney should have the advantage going into the weekend, as Penske’s effort here has been top tier. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Kyle Busch vs. Joey Logano

Oof, this is a tough one. Logano got the upperhand in the first Gateway race in a thrilling battle at the end with Busch. Busch followed it up by cruising to victory in 2023 while Logano was a strong third. By most metrics, Busch has been slightly better, so he will be my pick entering the weekend. RCR needs a banner weekend, too. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Martin Truex Jr. vs. Denny Hamlin

For the first time this season, Hamlin enters the race weekend with the regular season championship lead. Truex is a mere five points back. The No. 11 car finished runner-up at Gateway last season, though Truex has a much better average finish (in part to the Hamlin and Ross Chastain fiasco in 2022). Both drivers excel at flat tracks, but Truex can be in his own zip code at times. Let’s roll with the No. 19 car.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Alex Bowman vs. Ty Gibbs

It seems mindless to stay fully away from HMS this weekend, but flat tracks have never been the team’s forte. Meanwhile, JGR has always been a threat at these types of tracks. After going through an April slump, the No. 54 team seems to be turned back in the right direction. Gibbs is the choice. 

MY LINEUP: Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr., Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell

GARAGE: Ross Chastain