Fantasy Fastlane: Kyle Larson looks for a third straight Bristol sweep

With the debut of a softer right-side Goodyear Racing tire and potentially a dip in the ambient temperature on tap for this weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway, it’s possible that the Round of 16 elimination race turns into a wild card. Those nuances, in addition to Bristol often causing calamity, can lead you into misery when setting a fantasy lineup. Regardless, certain drivers excel at "The World’s Fastest Half-Mile."

New to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can play along. With 36 chartered cars and 36 races on the 2025 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.

MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 5-2

Larson and Bristol go together better than peanut butter and jelly. The No. 5 team has been dominant for the last two Bristol races, leading 873 of 1,000 laps. Larson has swept all three stages in both of those races, and he has never finished outside the top five in six attempts with HMS. The chances of seeing the true potential of the No. 5 team will likely come this weekend.

MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 5-1

As Hamlin explained after scoring his 59th Cup victory last weekend at Gateway, he couldn’t think of a better place to win No. 60 at than Bristol. Hamlin is a four-time Bristol victor, with three in the last nine races. He also has six straight top-10 finishes here, with the last four all cracking the top five. Should tires become a factor, remember who won the spring 2024 race when a flurry of drivers had tire issues.

MUST START:

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 17-2

A post-race outburst for Bell over the No. 20 radio following Gateway was unlike the normally cool and collected driver. Bell has been unsatisfied with the lack of results in his team, which hasn't had a top-five finish on an oval since Kansas Speedway in early May. Bell is always a threat at Bristol, however, though he hasn’t yet won at at "The Last Great Colosseum." Bell is among the three drivers to have top 10s in all five Next Gen races at Bristol (Larson and Hamlin).

MUST START:

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 10-1

With a gratifying third-place effort at Gateway, Elliott returns to one of his best tracks on the venue. Through 16 Bristol starts, Elliott has an average finish of 11.3. Four of the last five races have resulted in finishes of eighth or better. The 2020 Cup champion is still searching for his first points-paying race win at Bristol, but he earned $1 million by winning the 2020 All-Star Race here.

SLEEPER PICK:

Ty Gibbs | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 54 Toyota

Odds: 16-1

After more than three years of competing at the Cup level, it can be declared that road courses and Bristol are among Gibbs’ specialties. Through five Bristol starts, he’s led 239 laps, the most at any track on the schedule. Bristol is one of three venues where Gibbs has tabbed multiple top fives at (Chicago Street Course and Michigan International Speedway). In the tire management race last spring, the No. 54 car swept the opening two stages.

SLEEPER PICK:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 22-1

Amid a frustrating season, one of the strengths of the No. 6 team has been short tracks. Keselowski is a three-time Bristol winner, most recently in 2020. He has three top-10 finishes in the last six Bristol events, including a podium effort in 2024 during a heavy tire management spring race.

SLEEPER PICK:

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 15-1

The first two playoff races have been abysmal for Bowman and the No. 48 team. Lengthy pit stops and poor execution have cost him valuable points, making Bristol a must-win to advance to the Round of 12. Bowman has won the last two Busch Light Pole Awards at Bristol, and he has six top 10s in the last 11 short-track races. In the spring, he led 39 laps before blowing an engine. He placed fourth in the tire management race in 2024.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 18-1

Entering the elimination race 21 points above the cutline isn’t comfortable for Logano. It shouldn’t be when he’s finished 22nd or worse in all five Next Gen races at Bristol. His average finish of 27th in the Next Gen car at Bristol ranks as his third worst of any race track (33.0 at Indianapolis; 29.1 at Talladega).

STAY AWAY FROM:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 25-1

Unless Reddick has a disastrous Bristol race, his 37-point buffer over the cutline should be enough to advance to the Round of 12. He might need all those points, as Bristol isn’t historically among his best race tracks. His lone top 10 in eight starts came during his rookie season in 2020. All four of his starts with 23XI have resulted in finishes of 15th or worse.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 28-1

It could be argued that Busch is the greatest of his time at Bristol. He has 22 national series wins at the famed short track, including eight in the Cup Series. His recent numbers, though, are dreadful. Busch has a best finish of 14th in the last six Bristol events, and he doesn’t have a single top 10 in the last 13 short-track races. He also doesn’t have a top 10 in any stage across the last four trips to Bristol.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Austin Cindric vs. Shane van Gisbergen

Experience can go a long way at Bristol, and at 27 years old, Cindric has that in spades over van Gisbergen at Bristol. Cindric’s numbers don’t exactly splash off the page here, with a best finish of 13th in five starts. But van Gisbergen considers Bristol among the most challenging tracks that he’s had to adapt to, even saying that he might as well be driving the wrong way.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Alex Bowman vs. Ross Chastain

Chastain flies under the radar at Bristol, tallying three top 10s in the last five races. Bowman will have new pit-crew members from Spire Motorsports’ No. 77 team to potentially turn the No. 48 team’s woes around. Bowman is strong at qualifying here at Bristol and knows how to manage tires if it comes down to it. Give me the No. 48 car in a slight victory.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Joey Logano vs. Chase Elliott

This one is rather simple. Bristol is among Elliott’s best tracks, despite not having collected a gladiator sword for winning. In recent years, Logano has been sluggish at Bristol and similar tracks (Dover). If Elliott has a clean race, he should take this battle in a landslide.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Josh Berry vs. Austin Dillon

Both drivers are solid short-track racers with Berry making it to the Cup level partially by making a name for himself at local venues. Dillon has won short track races in each of the last two seasons at Richmond. Dillon has a tall task of gaining 11 points on the bubble to advance to the Round of 12, while Berry must win. The No. 3 team finds a way of manufacturing finishes, though, so he should get the nod.

MY LINEUP: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, Ty Gibbs.

GARAGE: Chris Buescher.

36 for 36: The only viable way of switching to choosing someone outside of Larson this weekend is if practice shows an incredible amount of tire concerns on Friday. The No. 5 team has swept the last two Bristol races, leading more than 87% of all laps. It’s time to see the championship-caliber bunch.