Fantasy Fastlane: Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick always thrive at Homestead

The most recent Cup Series race at Homestead-Miami Speedway was an absolute banger, with the best of the best trading blows all the way down to the final lap. The usual suspects are typically the frontrunners in South Beach. But as we saw last weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, one untimely caution can throw everyone into a blender. Who can be this week’s Josh Berry?

New to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can come play along. It’s a season-long points battle introduced last year in which strategy is the primary emphasis. With 36 chartered cars and 36 races on the 2025 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.

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MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds (DraftKings): 4-1

It’s almost inconceivable that Larson has just one victory at arguably his best performing track on the circuit. The record book shows recent finishes of 34th and 13th, but both feature incidents while contending for the win. In 2023, he crashed into the sand barrels entering pit road. Last fall, he spun underneath a lapped car in the waning laps. Larson has led north of 90 laps in four of his 11 Homestead starts, including two of the last three. Told you a few weeks ago we’d be seeing a lot more of the No. 5 car in my lineup.

MUST START:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds (DraftKings): 5-1

It’s not an overstatement to say Reddick’s most recent lap at Homestead was among the best laps in Cup Series history. He passed not one, but two cars to secure the victory on the final lap in the fall, punching his ticket to the Championship 4. He led a race-high 97 laps from the pole, and he has four top-five finishes in five Homestead starts. Reddick also won consecutive Xfinity Series championships here by running the wall.

MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds (DraftKings): 11-1

The beginning of the 2025 season has been relatively quiet for Hamlin, who has a single top-five and two top-10 finishes through the opening five races. The No. 11 car has led just nine laps. Homestead is among Hamlin’s best tracks on the schedule, as his three victories are tied with Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle for the most in track history. Hamlin has a 65% top-10 percentage in South Beach.

MUST START:

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds (DraftKings): 13-2

The No. 24 team is on a heater of a run. Dating back to last year’s Playoff race at Kansas Speedway (12 races), Byron has 11 top-10 finishes, with all those finishes being sixth or better. Byron is a former Homestead winner (2021) and has top 10s in four of the last five races here.

SLEEPER PICK:

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds (DraftKings): 5-1

OK, I get it, Blaney should probably never be considered a sleeper. The No. 12 car is arguably the fastest car in the series currently, as he was the star of the show last weekend at Las Vegas, coming from the back of the pack multiple times only to end up wrecked on a late restart. But consider this: up until his 2023 championship run, Blaney had just one top-10 finish in eight Homestead starts. He enters this weekend with consecutive runner-up finishes and was a few hundred yards shy of winning here last fall.

SLEEPER PICK:

AJ Allmendinger | View stats

Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet

Odds (DraftKings): 80-1

Ah, more like here’s a true sleeper. Allmendinger flies under the radar at Homestead, but his numbers are impeccable. The 43-year-old is the only driver to have top 10s in all three Next Gen races at Homestead, with an average finish of 5.3 in those three races. He’s also coming off his best finish of the season last weekend in Sin City, finishing eighth.

SLEEPER PICK:

Carson Hocevar | View stats

Spire Motorsports, No. 77 Chevrolet

Odds (DraftKings): 45-

This could be Berry from last week. Spire has fired off strong in 2025, particularly in qualifying with Michael McDowell scoring the organization’s first pole last weekend. Hocevar has plenty of speed on a weekly basis. Last fall, he was the highest running non-Playoff car for the bulk of the event and ran a unique line around the 1.5-mile track. It wouldn’t surprise me one iota to see the No. 77 car having a shot at the win this weekend.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds (DraftKings): 16-1

Prior to slipping through his pit box while leading late last weekend at Las Vegas, Logano stated he left each race mad this season. Can’t imagine that mistake eased that feeling. The No. 22 team sits eighth in the regular-season championship standings with zero top 10s through five races. Logano has finished 18th or worse in four of the last five Homestead races.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds (DraftKings): 45-1

Prior to being involved in a late restart wreck at Las Vegas, the No. 23 car was among the best cars in the field. His 14 stage points made a 28th-place finish not hurt too much. But in six Homestead starts, Wallace has a single top 10 and an average finish of 19th. I’m saving Wallace for another weekend.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Ty Gibbs | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 54 Toyota

Odds (DraftKings): 50-1

The speed that the No. 54 car showed at Las Vegas was concerning. It was an abysmal race for Gibbs, who was among the slowest cars on the track for a sizable portion of the 400-mile event. Two of his three Homestead starts have resulted outside the top 20, including a 36th-place finish in the fall. There is absolutely no momentum on this team, with just one top-20 finish in the last 11 races, dating back to last fall at Talladega.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Josh Berry vs. Brad Keselowski

Berry is coming off his signature moment in the Cup Series, earning his first Cup Series victory at Las Vegas. But the early-season strengths for the No. 21 team precede Sin City, as Berry had a fourth-place finish at Phoenix Raceway and led a career-high 56 laps at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Meanwhile, Keselowski is buried 30th in the championship standings, though he is coming off his best finish of the season (11th). Give me Berry, as Keselowski has three finishes of 16th or worse in the last four Homestead events.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Tyler Reddick vs. Kyle Larson

This is the matchup we knew would happen but were all dreading to pick. Reddick has mastered Homestead, no matter the series. Larson tends to lead a plethora of laps and somehow misses out on the victory. Reddick sealed the deal last year, and he’s my pick for Sunday.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Carson Hocevar vs. AJ Allmendinger

Hocevar doesn’t give an inch on the race track, which has propelled him to success early in his Cup career. His ability to find raw pace is exemplary. Allmendinger has been the model of consistency with top 10s in each Next Gen race at Homestead, and his success here dates to his Richard Petty Motorsports days. I’ll lean with Hocevar as Spire’s speed has been among the biggest surprises to start 2025.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Denny Hamlin vs. Ryan Blaney

With back-to-back runner-up finishes at Homestead, Blaney is the hot hand. Hamlin defines consistency over an extended period here with an average finish of 10.5 through 20 starts. Wouldn’t surprise me if these two drivers are contending for the win, but I’ll take Hamlin. The lone hesitancy here is the pace Joe Gibbs Racing lacked, collectively, at Las Vegas last weekend.

MY LINEUP: Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Ryan Blaney

GARAGE: Carson Hocevar

36 for 36: It stings to use a top-tier driver this early, but Tyler Reddick is the way to go this weekend. His value is incredibly high and could bank big points this weekend, netting at least 50 points in two of his five starts here.