Fantasy Fastlane: Unknowns galore entering Sin City

The Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a highly anticipated race. There are plenty of questions that will be answered this weekend. Which team hits on the setup right off the truck? Which manufacturer has the early advantage on intermediate race tracks? How well do the new Ford and Toyota bodies race on an intermediate track? Not knowing those answers doesn’t help one iota when setting your fantasy lineup. So we’re entering the weekend partially blind and it could make for a complete overhaul in the Saturday update.

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MUST START: 

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 4-1

Sticking with ‘ole faithful here. Larson is the most recent winner at Las Vegas and was in contention to sweep the races at the track last year, finishing second to William Byron last March. Since joining Hendrick Motorsports, Larson has led more than 60 laps in four of the six events in Sin City. We know how the Chevrolet body races on intermediates, so this is a good baseline to enter the weekend.

MUST START:

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 17-2

The No. 24 team dominated the spring Vegas race in 2023, as Hendrick Motorsports swept the podium. Byron followed up that performance with a seventh-place finish in the fall. In the four Next Gen races in Sin City, he has three finishes of seventh or better. Bank on Byron having a good weekend.

MUST START:

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 9-1

Here is where the risks begin, as the first Toyota driver is off the board. Bell led the way for Toyota last year in Vegas, recording top fives in both races. Had the October race been one lap longer, it’s very likely he would have passed Larson for the win as he made a spirited charge in the waning laps. Bell has three top-10 finishes in the four Next Gen races at Las Vegas, and Toyota had lights out speed on intermediates last season. Though a big change to the chassis’ nose was made, it’s hard to imagine they will be any worse.

MUST START:

Ross Chastian | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 15-1

Can’t imagine that most people had Daniel Suarez earning Trackhouse Racing its first win of the 2024 season with how frequently Chastain runs towards the front of the field at all types of race tracks. Chastain was elite at Las Vegas over the past two seasons, scoring a trio of top fives in four starts, including a fifth-place finish last fall. He also won at Nashville last summer, which is a similar layout to Las Vegas.

SLEEPER PICK:

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 19-1

Not sure how much of a sleeper Wallace is this weekend, as he’s excelled on intermediate tracks over the last two years with 23XI. He was the first non-Hendrick car in the final rundown last March, when he picked up a fourth-place finish. The No. 23 team is riding high entering Sin City, as Wallace is the only driver in the field to have top 10 finishes in the first two races of the season, with both resulting in fifth-place efforts.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Daniel Suárez | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet

Odds: 65-1

Go back and check last week’s Fastlane to see where we listed Suárez. Spoiler: he was a sleeper, and he scored a much-needed victory, quieting any concerns surrounding his race seat with Trackhouse past 2024. His Las Vegas numbers don’t jump off the page with just a pair of top 10s in 13 starts, but one of those did come in this race last season. He has three straight finishes of 16th or better at LVMS.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Ty Gibbs | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 54 Toyota

Odds: 28-1

The preseason projections for Gibbs had him winning at least one, possibly multiple races in his sophomore season at the Cup level. His finishes on intermediate tracks last season don’t reflect how much speed the No. 54 car had. With more experience, those statistics should begin to flip. The last time the Cup Series did visit a 1.5-mile non-drafting track, however, he did finish seventh at Homestead.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 22-1

There could be a real argument to be made that Buescher was the most improved driver during the 2023 season. However, RFK, like the majority of Ford teams, lacked speed on intermediate tracks compared to Chevrolet and Toyota. That could certainly change by moving to the Mustang Dark Horse, but I would shy away from using the No. 17 car this weekend. Buescher has yet to find the right feel for the track, posting just one top-10 finish in 14 Vegas starts.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 14-1

For a host of reasons, Elliott hasn’t had the success at Vegas recently that he experienced at the beginning of his career. Sure, three of his first four starts in Sin City resulted in crash DNFs, but he ran more frequently towards the front than he did in the last few races at the track. He missed this race last year as he broke his right leg before getting to Las Vegas, but his last two starts have resulted in finishes outside the top 20. The flip side to this is how much speed the rest of HMS has shown at the track in recent years, with Elliott’s three teammates winning at the track since 2022.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Michael McDowell | View stats

Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford

Odds: 100-1

Among the most impressive teams in the Cup field over the first two weeks of the regular season has been Front Row Motorsports. Last week at Atlanta, McDowell scored his first pole award in 467 starts, and both he and teammate Todd Gilliland had cars capable of winning. Front Row has primarily struggled on intermediates in the past, though the team boosted its resume at a variety of tracks over the last couple of years. McDowell has cracked the top 20 a mere four times in 20 starts at Las Vegas.

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Daniel Suárez vs. Chase Briscoe

The amount of pressure on Stewart-Haas Racing this season is building. Collectively, its four drivers believe improvements will be made after the team had its worst year in recent memory in 2023. Suárez is the easy pick entering the weekend, as we still don’t know what to expect out of the new Ford body. This could certainly change if the Fords show an uptick in speed during practice on Saturday.

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Martin Truex Jr. vs. Joey Logano

Since picking up his first of two Las Vegas victories in 2017, Truex has collected 12 top 10s in the last 13 races at Vegas. It’s almost a given that he will crack the top 10, even when he’s going through a dry spell like last year’s postseason. Logano is elite here, too, winning three of the last 10 races. The nod in consistency lies with the No. 19 team, and this could be a big weekend for Truex, who hasn't had a top-five finish since last August at Michigan.

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Ty Gibbs vs. Bubba Wallace

Both were listed as sleepers, so choose wisely. I tend to give Wallace the advantage with how much he’s stood out on intermediates during the Next Gen era. Seven of his 20 top-10 finishes over the last two full-time seasons came at tracks that raced similarly at Vegas. He also had the infamous tussle with Larson in the fall 2022 race at Las Vegas shortly into the second stage after winning the opening stage. Gibbs should crack the top 10 too, but don’t think it will be enough to outrun the No. 23 car.

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Ross Chastain vs. Brad Keselowski

Despite Ford struggling on intermediates last season, Keselowski led laps in both Vegas races last season, including 38 last fall en route to a fourth-place finish. The 2012 champion is also a three-time winner at the track, scoring top 10s in more than 60% of his starts. My gut still says Chastain, who is on a recent heater at Las Vegas with a trio of top fives in the last four races.

MY LINEUP: Kyle Larson, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, Martin Truex Jr.

GARAGE: Alex Bowman