Fantasy Fastlane: Leaning on past success and a Goodyear tire test for Iowa

The NASCAR Cup Series will experience a first this weekend, competing at the .875-mile short track of Iowa Speedway. The bulk of the current Cup field have tackled Iowa a time or two rising through the ranks via the Xfinity and Truck Series, which had regular stops there for a decade. In fact, 15 of the 20 Xfinity races held at Iowa dating back to 2009 were won by current Cup drivers. Just under half of the 13 Truck Series events at Iowa have been won by current Cup stars. With a recent repave of certain lanes, it might throw teams for a loop. So having the three drivers in your lineup who participated in the Goodyear tire test two weeks ago might be an advantage. 

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MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motor Sports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-2

Like me, you probably have very limited uses left of Larson over the final 10 races of the regular season. Some good news is that I don’t anticipate using the No. 5 car at New Hampshire next week, buying me a week when I can afford to use him. The Regular Season Championship leader participated in the Goodyear tire test last month and has a pair of fifth-place finishes in two Xfinity starts at the track. Larson has become a short-track stud since joining Hendrick and has top-five finishes in all three tracks measuring under a mile this season (Bristol, Richmond and Martinsville).

MUST START:

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 19-5

Bell has seemingly turned his regular season around since winning the Coca-Cola 600 in late May. The No. 20 car is among the fastest in the field each week, and Iowa is a place that bodes well for the Oklahoma native. In five Xfinity starts, Bell has a pair of victories and two runner-up finishes. He led at least 152 laps in three of those five races (scheduled distances were 250 laps). Bell was the class of the field at Gateway two weeks ago and there’s no reason to think he won’t be stout again this weekend. He joined Larson at the Goodyear tire test.

MUST START:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 12-1

Keselowski is currently firing on all cylinders and is a threat to win almost weekly. And back in 2009, it was the Michigan native who won the first Xfinity race contested at Iowa, holding off Kyle Busch. The 2012 Cup champion scored additional wins at Iowa in 2013 and 2014, and he is tied with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. for the most wins in track history. Keselowski accompanied Larson and Bell at the tire test.

MUST START:

William Byron| View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-1

Four of the last six races contested in 2024 have resulted in finishes of 15th or worse for Byron. Three of those were outside the top 20. Byron has become a magnificent short-track competitor, however, and won at Iowa in his first starts in both the Xfinity and Truck Series. It wouldn’t be surprising if he tracked his fourth win of 2024 on Sunday.

SLEEPER PICK:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 17-2

Not sure how much of a sleeper a two-time Cup champion can be, but Logano is living dangerously on the playoff bubble with 10 races remaining in the regular season. Logano excels at new crafts, picking up recent inaugural victories at the Bristol Dirt Race, L.A. Coliseum, World Wide Technology Raceway and the North Wilkesboro repave last month. Logano has pointed to short tracks being Penske's strongpoint.

SLEEPER PICK:

Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 28-1

Chastain is coming off his first top-five finish since Las Vegas at the beginning of March. The last time Chastain competed at Iowa in 2019, he crossed the finish line first in the truck race, but his Niece Motorsports truck was later disqualified and stripped of the win. Chastain has plenty of experience at Iowa, and even scored a pair of top-five finishes for JD Motorsports.

SLEEPER PICK:

Rickey Stenhouse Jr. | View stats

JTG Daughtery Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet

Odds: 300-1

The hits keep on coming for Stenhouse, entering Iowa with four straight results of 20th or worse this season. Fortunately for the two-time Xfinity champion, he has a trio of victories at Iowa, coming consecutively between 2011 and 2012. Granted, that success came over a decade ago in an entirely different series, but he was competing against multiple Cup current Cup stars.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 7-1

Consider it impossible for Hamlin to have a worse week at Iowa than he had last week at Sonoma, hustling his No. 11 car for two laps before a catastrophic engine failure. It’s the fewest number of laps he’s ever completed in a Cup race. Hamlin is superb on short tracks, as is Joe Gibbs Racing. It’s entirely possible following practice and qualifying that the No. 11 car is atop my lineup. But he has no prior experience at Iowa, having never turned a lap on the track. If we’re basing our lineup off previous encounters with Iowa, Hamlin doesn't fit the bill this weekend.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 10-1

There would have to be a deep study on the last time I advised players to stay away from both Hamlin and Truex at a short track; I don’t think it’s ever happened. But the same principles apply for Truex, who’s never competed at Iowa. He’s a series champion and can adjust quickly, but let’s also remember the last two weeks have been less than ideal for the No. 19 team, at favorable tracks for him. High expectations were halted at Gateway and he dropped 25 spots on the final lap at Sonoma when running out of fuel. Save Truex for New Hampshire next week, where he will be a necessity.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 55-1

The last time the Cup Series visited a track that was in Penske’s wheelhouse, Cindric walked away with the trophy. And while we have no data to say that Penske will be among the best teams this weekend, Logano and Ryan Blaney are excellent short-track competitors. Cindric is still honing in on that craft as just one of his 17 top-10 finishes in the Cup Series have come at a track distanced under a mile. He also struggled here in Xfinity, earning a best finish of 10th in four starts.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Kyle Larson vs. Denny Hamlin

Based on comments earlier, this is an easy choice going into the weekend. Larson participated in the Goodyear test two weeks ago and Hamlin has never seen the track. It is worth noting that including the Busch Light Clash exhibition, the No. 11 team has won three of the four races this season on tracks measuring under a mile. Still leaning on experience here, though, so Larson is the pick.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

William Byron vs. Martin Truex Jr.

Copy and paste from the Larson and Hamlin matchup. Truex has never competed at Iowa while Byron won out of the gate. If JGR shows up with lights-out speed, we might have to reassess both of these matchups in the update.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ryan Blaney vs. Joey Logano

With how well Penske runs at short tracks, this is a dead heat. Leaning in the way of Logano because of his knack for picking up new race tracks quickly despite having never raced there. Blaney has a truck win for Brad Keselowski Racing in 2012, so he knows the way to Victory Lane. This could be another one I flip on entering Sunday's showdown.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Chase Elliott vs. Christopher Bell

Bell is my pick to win the inaugural Iowa Cup race going into the weekend, so that should say enough. His record at track is stout in the Xfinity Series, but in the Truck Series he had a pair of top fives in three starts. Elliott, a formidable short-track competitor, will likely have a strong weekend, too, as the No. 9 team has been incredibly efficient over the last couple of months. Bell is still the way to go.

MY LINEUP: Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Brad Keselowksi, William Byron, Joey Logano

GARAGE: Kyle Busch