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Fantasy Fastlane: Let the playoffs begin
By Dustin Albino for NASCAR.com | Friday, September 2, 2022
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Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM (as of Thursday).
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This weekend, the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs begin at Darlington Raceway. While 16 drivers (17, including Bubba Wallace driving the No. 45 Toyota in the owner’s bracket) chase a championship, fantasy picks get reset. Over the final 10 races, players can use any driver five times. The rules are the same, aside from the championship race at Phoenix. In alignment with NASCAR points, the four championship-eligible drivers will not earn stage points in the final race. Buckle up, it’s going to be a fun 10 weeks.
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MUST START:
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 7-1
Ah, just the right time for picks to reset. With the speed Hamlin has shown this year – yes, the results have been sporadic with just seven top 10s – it’s likely you’ve used him up. Now, you get five more chances. Start Hamlin at Darlington, as he’s mastered the track. Hamlin is the active wins leader at Darlington (four), with three of those coming in the last nine races. And when it comes crunch time, the No. 11 Toyota is typically battling up front.
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 7-1
Ah, just the right time for picks to reset. With the speed Hamlin has shown this year – yes, the results have been sporadic with just seven top 10s – it’s likely you’ve used him up. Now, you get five more chances. Start Hamlin at Darlington, as he’s mastered the track. Hamlin is the active wins leader at Darlington (four), with three of those coming in the last nine races. And when it comes crunch time, the No. 11 Toyota is typically battling up front.
Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
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MUST START:
Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 6-1
If Hamlin has been 1A at Darlington in recent years, Larson has been 1B. In five of his last seven trips to "The Lady in Black," Larson has top-three finishes, despite never reaching the historic Victory Lane. Three times he’s led 124-plus laps, including the Southern 500 in 2018, when he led 284 of 367 circuits. In the spring, the No. 5 car was running up front when he blew an engine. This could be the start of a run towards a second consecutive Cup title for Larson.
Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 6-1
If Hamlin has been 1A at Darlington in recent years, Larson has been 1B. In five of his last seven trips to "The Lady in Black," Larson has top-three finishes, despite never reaching the historic Victory Lane. Three times he’s led 124-plus laps, including the Southern 500 in 2018, when he led 284 of 367 circuits. In the spring, the No. 5 car was running up front when he blew an engine. This could be the start of a run towards a second consecutive Cup title for Larson.
James Gilbert | Getty Images
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MUST START:
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 8-1
The guy who did win the spring race at Darlington is Logano, and he did so in commanding fashion. The No. 22 car led a race-high 107 laps from the pole, while also winning the first stage. In recent weeks, Logano has heated up, earning four top-10 finishes leading into Daytona last weekend and even there, he won a stage and jumped three spots in the championship standings.
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 8-1
The guy who did win the spring race at Darlington is Logano, and he did so in commanding fashion. The No. 22 car led a race-high 107 laps from the pole, while also winning the first stage. In recent weeks, Logano has heated up, earning four top-10 finishes leading into Daytona last weekend and even there, he won a stage and jumped three spots in the championship standings.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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MUST START:
Ross Chastain | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 8-1
Let’s rewind for a moment. The year is 2018 and Chastain finally gets his first big break. It came via Chip Ganassi Racing at Darlington in the Xfinity Series, where he won the pole in his first of three starts with the team. Now, let’s fast forward to nearly four months ago. Chastain was battling for the lead off Turn 2 at Darlington when he got loose and plowed into the inside wall on the backstretch. My point is, he’s going to be strong this weekend.
Ross Chastain | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 8-1
Let’s rewind for a moment. The year is 2018 and Chastain finally gets his first big break. It came via Chip Ganassi Racing at Darlington in the Xfinity Series, where he won the pole in his first of three starts with the team. Now, let’s fast forward to nearly four months ago. Chastain was battling for the lead off Turn 2 at Darlington when he got loose and plowed into the inside wall on the backstretch. My point is, he’s going to be strong this weekend.
James Gilbert | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK:
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
The fact that Truex is being considered a sleeper is criminal. However, that’s what happens when you miss the playoffs. And though the No. 19 team finished fourth in the regular season standings and has the most stage wins in 2022 with seven, he won’t be battling for a championship at Phoenix. He will, however, likely be in the mix at Darlington, as he’s led 473 of the last 1,320 laps run at the track (35.8%).
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
The fact that Truex is being considered a sleeper is criminal. However, that’s what happens when you miss the playoffs. And though the No. 19 team finished fourth in the regular season standings and has the most stage wins in 2022 with seven, he won’t be battling for a championship at Phoenix. He will, however, likely be in the mix at Darlington, as he’s led 473 of the last 1,320 laps run at the track (35.8%).
Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK:
Erik Jones | View stats
Petty GMS Racing, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Unfortunately for Jones, the No. 43 team also missed the postseason. But his first six starts at Darlington were magical, never finishing outside the top eight and winning the 2019 Southern 500. 2022 has been an impressive year for Jones, as he’s scored the most top 10s for any driver in the famed No. 43 car since AJ Allmendinger in 2010.
Erik Jones | View stats
Petty GMS Racing, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Unfortunately for Jones, the No. 43 team also missed the postseason. But his first six starts at Darlington were magical, never finishing outside the top eight and winning the 2019 Southern 500. 2022 has been an impressive year for Jones, as he’s scored the most top 10s for any driver in the famed No. 43 car since AJ Allmendinger in 2010.
Logan Riely | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK:
Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
With a walkoff win last weekend at Daytona, Dillon is still in the title hunt, despite finishing the lowest in the regular season standings of drivers that made the postseason. He’s always been quietly consistent at Darlington, though, with nine top-10 finishes in 19 starts, tied for the most he has at any track (Daytona). Had the 2020 Southern 500 been one lap longer, he likely would have won.
Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
With a walkoff win last weekend at Daytona, Dillon is still in the title hunt, despite finishing the lowest in the regular season standings of drivers that made the postseason. He’s always been quietly consistent at Darlington, though, with nine top-10 finishes in 19 starts, tied for the most he has at any track (Daytona). Had the 2020 Southern 500 been one lap longer, he likely would have won.
James Gilbert | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM:
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
Based on how he ran in the spring, Byron is going to be an attractive pick this weekend. He nearly won the race, before Logano executed a shove-and-run with two laps to go. As noted multiple times here, it’s been a summer to forget for Byron, who now has one top-10 finish in the last 18 races.
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
Based on how he ran in the spring, Byron is going to be an attractive pick this weekend. He nearly won the race, before Logano executed a shove-and-run with two laps to go. As noted multiple times here, it’s been a summer to forget for Byron, who now has one top-10 finish in the last 18 races.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM:
Chase Briscoe | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Because he won nearly six months ago, Briscoe hasn’t had to sweat much about making the playoffs. But he, too, has struggled in the regular season (just four top 10s, fewest of the playoff drivers), despite showing flashes of speed. He does have an Xfinity win to his name at the track, in an epic battle with Kyle Busch in 2020. But in three Cup starts, the Indiana native has a best finish of 11th.
Chase Briscoe | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Because he won nearly six months ago, Briscoe hasn’t had to sweat much about making the playoffs. But he, too, has struggled in the regular season (just four top 10s, fewest of the playoff drivers), despite showing flashes of speed. He does have an Xfinity win to his name at the track, in an epic battle with Kyle Busch in 2020. But in three Cup starts, the Indiana native has a best finish of 11th.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM:
Daniel Suárez | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 33-1
It’s likely that Darlington isn’t the track that Suárez wished the postseason began at. In nine starts at the track "Too Tough To Tame," Suárez has an average result of 22.3, scoring just one top 10 – a 10th earlier this year. Six times, he’s finished 23rd or worse.
Daniel Suárez | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 33-1
It’s likely that Darlington isn’t the track that Suárez wished the postseason began at. In nine starts at the track "Too Tough To Tame," Suárez has an average result of 22.3, scoring just one top 10 – a 10th earlier this year. Six times, he’s finished 23rd or worse.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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MY LINEUP: Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Martin Truex Jr.
GARAGE: Kevin Harvick
GARAGE: Kevin Harvick
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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FEATURED MATCHUP: Austin Cindric vs. Austin Dillon
Funny how this works, Dillon moved Cindric out of the way to make the playoffs. And though Cindric has had a more consistent season overall, Dillon is underrated at Darlington. In Cindric’s lone Darlington start, he finished 18th and struggled at the track in Xfinity. Maybe surprisingly(?), Dillon is my pick.
Funny how this works, Dillon moved Cindric out of the way to make the playoffs. And though Cindric has had a more consistent season overall, Dillon is underrated at Darlington. In Cindric’s lone Darlington start, he finished 18th and struggled at the track in Xfinity. Maybe surprisingly(?), Dillon is my pick.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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FEATURED MATCHUP: Chase Elliott vs. Denny Hamlin
With an average finish of 17.4 in 11 starts at Darlington, Elliott has been mediocre. He’s had some standout runs, and even flipped Kyle Busch the bird after a wreck while battling for second in 2020. For all the reasons mentioned above, Hamlin is the likely favorite – possibly for the win – this weekend.
With an average finish of 17.4 in 11 starts at Darlington, Elliott has been mediocre. He’s had some standout runs, and even flipped Kyle Busch the bird after a wreck while battling for second in 2020. For all the reasons mentioned above, Hamlin is the likely favorite – possibly for the win – this weekend.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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FEATURED MATCHUP: Kyle Busch vs. Kyle Larson
Both drivers are solid at Darlington. In 21 stats, Busch has 13 top-10 finishes at the "Lady in Black," but has just one win coming way back in 2008. Larson has been dependable to run up front in recent years, so he’s the best option this week.
Both drivers are solid at Darlington. In 21 stats, Busch has 13 top-10 finishes at the "Lady in Black," but has just one win coming way back in 2008. Larson has been dependable to run up front in recent years, so he’s the best option this week.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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FEATURED MATCHUP: Kevin Harvick vs. Tyler Reddick
Full transparency, my garage choice came down to these drivers. Running against the wall lends itself to a guy like Reddick, who's an ace at it. But Harvick’s veteran instinct – and two Southern 500 wins – gets the nod.
Full transparency, my garage choice came down to these drivers. Running against the wall lends itself to a guy like Reddick, who's an ace at it. But Harvick’s veteran instinct – and two Southern 500 wins – gets the nod.
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