Fantasy Fastlane: Loading up on Penske and Gibbs at Martinsville

Kevin Harvick (P) | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 10-1

Fastlane forecast: First things first, if you have a Harvick use left, I'd lean towards saving it for Phoenix. He just that much better there -- nine wins -- even if he won't get stage points there. That said, if you have multiple uses available, throw him in the lineup for Martinsville. He has the most points with the 2020 short-track rules package but his worst run was a 15th at Martinsville in June. He does have the seventh-most points at Martinsville in the last five races.

Denny Hamlin (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 11-2

Fastlane forecast: Hamlin is a five-time winner at Martinsville and has yet to lock in to the Championship 4. With the short-track package this year, Hamlin has been a mixed bag with just the eighth-most points. And despite an uncharacteristic 24th at the Virginia short track this spring, he does have the fifth-most points at Martinsville over the last five races – an average of 40.

Brad Keselowski (P) | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 11-2

Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has been one of the best with the 2020 short-track rules package as he has three wins (Bristol, New Hampshire and Richmond-2) and has the third-most points with it. He's no slouch at Martinsville either, with two wins and eight top fives in his last nine races there. He also has the fourth-most points in the last five there – simply put, he's a must for me this weekend.

Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 7-2

Fastlane forecast: So there's two sides to the coin if you have one Truex use left; at two uses, he's a no brainer to play. He's in a big enough points hole he basically has to win to advance, so a part of the brain says save him. But then the facts show that he's won the last two at Martinsville, so he could very well win his way through. With the most points at Martinsville over the last five, I'm burning the final use.

Joey Logano (P) | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 9-1

Fastlane forecast: Logano is locked in to the Championship 4 meaning he won't get stage points at Phoenix, so for that reason alone he should be used. It helps that the 2018 champ has been one of the better options at Martinsville. He's earned the third-most points over the last five races (average of 42 points). He's also scored the second-most points with the 2020 short-track package (42.3 points).

Chase Elliott (P) | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 9-1

Fastlane forecast: Elliott's Martinsville record is a bit deceiving. He has five top 10s in his last seven there and one of the non top 10s came from contact with Denny Hamlin taking him out of the lead in the closing laps in 2017. He has the fifth-most points with the short-track rules package this year and at two uses left, there's no point in my saving him anymore.

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 9-1

Fastlane forecast: If you are all about studying the trends, then Blaney is your guy. He has at least 40 points in four of the last five races in 2020. At Martinsville, he has four top fives, including a runner-up finish in June, in his last five starts there. He also has the second-most points at the 0.526-mile track during that stretch – an average of 42.4 points.

Kyle Busch | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota

Odds: 8-1

Fastlane forecast: The Texas winner has two victories at Martinsville. That said, the last two starts have produced finishes outside the top 10, but before that, he had a run of eight straight top-five finishes at "The Paperclip." With the 2020 short-track package, Busch has the seventh-most points and has tended to perform better on the tracks under 1-mile.

Clint Bowyer | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford

Odds: 35-1

Fastlane forecast: It's hard to forget Bowyer's memorable win at Martinsville in 2018 as he heads to the track with two starts left in his full-time career. Short tracks continue to be his bread and butter with the sixth-most points with the 2020 package and an average of 32.6 points. He has just one race with less than 25 points in the eight run with the short-track rules.

SLEEPER PICK: Jimmie Johnson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 35-1

Fastlane forecast: A nine-time Martinsville winner as a sleeper? Well, when that driver hasn't won a Cup race in over three years that’s the designation you get here. The seven-time champ has had some of his stronger 2020 runs with the short-track package including a 45-point effort at this track in June. As a whole, he has the ninth-most points with that package.

SLEEPER PICK: William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 35-1

Fastlane forecast: Byron was the runner-up at Martinsville last fall and nabbed another top 10 there this spring. Over that two-race sample, he has the fourth-most points. Like his Hendrick teammate Johnson, he has had some solid points days with this rules package in 2020 with four races of at least 32 points. He's also had some of his stronger runs since his playoff elimination.

SLEEPER PICK: Ryan Newman | View stats

Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 100-1

Fastlane forecast: Blue-collar racing is a hallmark of short-track battles and that is Newman's M.O. His best short-track result this season came in June at Martinsville with a 12th-place, 25-point effort. In the last five races at the 0.526-mile track, the veteran has more points than Byron, Johnson and Aric Almirola here. He has six top-12 finishes in his last 10 starts there.

SLEEPER PICK: Christopher Bell | View stats

Leavine Family Racing, No. 95 Toyota
Odds: 100-1

Fastlane forecast: This is more of a hunch than anything else. The rookie has hardly had good track position or a good starting spot this year. On Sunday, he'll line up 11th – fresh off his best Cup result of his young career and his first set of back-to-back top 10s in Cup. The same thing might not happen here, but if you are looking for a contrarian play, he's a good option.

STAY AWAY FROM: Kurt Busch (P) | View stats

Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: While Busch does have two wins at Martinsville, he holds an average finish of 20.1. He does have three top 10s in his last four starts there but he had a 25-start stretch at the 0.526-mile track where he had a win (in 2014) and no finish better than 11th. He ranks 12th in points with the short-track package this year with an average of 21.6 in the last five on that track type.

STAY AWAY FROM: Alex Bowman (P) | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet

Odds: 20-1

Fastlane forecast: Bowman has two top 10s at Martinsville in nine starts but both of those finishes came in the spring event. He has the 11th-most points with the 2020 short-track package and an average of 34 points over the last three races at that track type. The thing for me is I just think there are better fits for uses in this race.

STAY AWAY FROM: Erik Jones | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 65-1

Fastlane forecast: In seven starts at Martinsville, Jones has never finished better than 12th. His 21.6 average finish at the Virginia track is his fourth-worst among all venues on the Cup circuit. The other flag for me with Jones is that he has just the 17th-most points with the 2020 short-track package and if you take his two Bristol top fives out of that, the numbers are much lower.

My lineup heading into the weekend: Brad Keselowski (P), Joey Logano (P), Martin Truex Jr. (P), Chase Elliott (P), Denny Hamlin (P); Garage; Kyle Busch/Ryan Blaney.


There's a scenario I am considering where I may hedge on Hamlin getting eliminated given his up-and-down playoffs and use him at Phoenix instead. But for now, this is the lineup I am rolling with.


Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 2 p.m. ET on NBC.