Fantasy Fastlane: Martinsville master Denny Hamlin needs points this weekend

Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM (as of Thursday).

MUST START:
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 7-1
For more than a decade, Hamlin has been one of the top handful of drivers who you know will always be competitive at Martinsville. Now, he has to be. The five-time Martinsville winner enters the Championship 4 elimination off race five points below the elimination line. Points will be valuable this weekend but winning solves everything and Hamlin has done that at Martinsville as much as the other seven playoff drivers combined. One cause for concern is that the No. 11 car struggled with handling in the spring, finishing three laps down in 28th.

MUST START:
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 6-1
While Elliott has just one win at the southern Virginia track, it’s among his best circuits on the schedule. In 14 starts at NASCAR’s shortest track, he’s led 903 laps, the most he’s led at any track. His recent success of leading 185-plus laps in three of the last four starts there bodes well for Sunday. A clean race will propel Elliott to the Championship 4 at Phoenix.

MUST START:
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 8-1
This is where it gets interesting. Not many expected Byron to make it this far in the playoffs, and here he is, one standout performance away from battling for a championship at Phoenix. And Martinsville is arguably his best track on the schedule, including his victory in the spring when he led 212 laps. The potential Elliott-Byron-Hamlin battle this weekend will be a triple threat heavyweight match of who gets to Phoenix.

MUST START:
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 9-1
The No. 19 team has found just about every way to lose a race in 2022, including last week at Homestead. Truex has been stellar at Martinsville in recent years, however, leading 754 laps over the last six races at the track – three of those resulted in wins. While he also struggled with the handling of his car in April, it’s hard to believe he will go a full season without a win.

SLEEPER PICK:
Brad Keselowski | View stats
RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 28-1
Keselowski, too, is always sporty at Martinsville, and RFK won the last short-track race at Bristol with Chris Buescher. In the last 13 races at the track, Keselowski has 11 top-10 finishes; six of which were on the podium. The 2012 champion is coming off his first top-five performance as a driver/owner and he has looked stronger in recent weeks.

SLEEPER PICK:
Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Aside from the Hendrick Motorsports entries of Elliott and Byron, Dillon was among the fastest cars in the spring race and ended up finishing third. The No. 3 car also had a top 10 at Richmond earlier this year and has proven to run relatively well on short tracks in 2022.

SLEEPER PICK:
AJ Allmendinger | View stats
Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Since the Indianapolis road course in late July, Allmendinger has top 10 finishes in six consecutive Cup Series starts, which is the longest streak of his career. For a driver who’s aced road courses, he flies under the radar at Martinsville – as a lot of road racers do – with seven top 10s in 22 starts. Kaulig Racing has been hot as of late.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Kyle Larson | View stats
Team Penske, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1
Since entering the Cup Series on a full-time basis in 2014, Larson has had trouble figuring out how to get around Martinsville. He will tell you such, with just three top 10s in 15 starts. Even since coming to Hendrick Motorsports – a team that historically runs well at Martinsville – he’s struggled. Save Larson for Phoenix, where he’ll be competing for an owner’s championship.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Christopher Bell | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 14-1
C-Bell is going to be in must-win mode this weekend, similar to how he was at the Charlotte Roval three weeks ago. There, he had a walk-off win and secured his spot into the Round of 8. Unfortunately, his Martinsville numbers aren’t ideal with one top 10 in five starts. He picked up stage points in the first two stages in April before having to make an unscheduled stop late.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 16-1
For a multitude of reasons, Harvick has struggled at Martinsville over the last few seasons. Remember his late season collapse in 2020 that was highlighted by a poor performance at Martinsville, washing away his nine-win season? He’s finished outside the top 10 in four of the last five races there.

FEATURED MATCHUP:
Kyle Larson vs. Martin Truex Jr.
If you read above, you should have taken notes about why Truex is the easy choice this weekend. He’s been among the best in the field at Martinsville over the last handful of years and will likely be in contention yet again on Sunday. But it is 2022 and crazy scenarios seem to be thrown his way more times than not.

FEATURED MATCHUP:
William Byron vs. Denny Hamlin
This is certainly the toughest matchup of the weekend. Both drivers excel at Martinsville, and Byron had a breakthrough win at the track in April while also riding a streak of three straight top fives. Based on experience alone, the slight advantage should go to Hamlin. This could be a dog fight for the final transfer spot to Phoenix.

FEATURED MATCHUP:
Ross Chastain vs. Chase Elliott
As long as Chastain stays away from trouble at Martinsville, he will likely be competing for a title at Phoenix. The regular season champion, however, is just 11 points above the elimination line. Fortunately, he’s at one of his better ovals and should outrun the No. 1 Chevrolet.

FEATURED MATCHUP:
Christopher Bell vs. Ryan Blaney
Both drivers will likely have to win on Sunday to keep their championship hopes alive. Here, though, I like Blaney, as he’s a frequent frontrunner at Martinsville. His six top-five finishes at Martinsville are the most of any track on the schedule.

MY LINEUP: Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, William Byron, Martin Truex Jr., Ryan Blaney

GARAGE: Kyle Busch